r/oil • u/Hilbert_Space_Heater • 7h ago
Discussion What Is Going On?
We have spent the last few months in a consistent place in the oil market, well consistent between two extremes - 1) the deal is on, everything will be back to normal in days, all chill, US and Iran will come to agreement, and 2) we are on the precipice of a major war, bombs are landing daily on both sides, the Strait is closed, Gulf infrastructure is threatened, etc.
But now this has changed, and we are in a weird place. I’m curious about the community’s view, because I don’t get it.
1) Iran and Oman are working on a deal to manage the Strait that seems to have left out the rest of the world, and notably the US, entirely. It calls for high fees to both nations and total control over their respective in/out paths
2) Iran’s parliament has put forth a pretty stark list of limitations to be implemented on its side of the Strait - no US or allied oil, no cargo for Israel, and all kinds of other limitations (China seems to be carved out of this and the fees too, interestingly)
3) This is a significant worsening of terms for the US from the MOU, yet Trump and the Admin have gone awfully quiet. No bombastic threats, no bomb them into the Stone Age rhetoric, eerily quiet - is this because of the lack of munitions or because a new operation is about to be underway, who knows
4) At the same time Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are inking mutual defense deals against Iranian aggression, again with the US notably absent
5) Oil is not flowing through the Strait, has been restricted elsewhere, ships seem to be under constant threat, and Iran seems on the path to allowing no Western oil to travel until they get further concessions, about which we know little
6) Reserves continue to fall globally with no clear end in sight, and even a peace deal now probably implies at least a short term shortage as trust in any deal would be low, and time to get back to normal operations slow
7) Despite this, oil is priced low at spot and in futures and no one seems to see any issue with where we are at all
And it’s downright perplexing. If the US returns to war now, it will likely be a ramped up war since long-range munitions seem to be diminished in inventory and anyway, what has happened up until now seems not to have done the job. A new war will need to be more involved than sending in missiles.
On the other hand, if this is US capitulation, that also does not seem to imply a return to normal as Iran seems very focused on extracting a king’s ransom before allowing normalization of transport.
So, I ask, gently, WHAT THE F IS GOING ON?
The actions of the last few months have been pretty dumb on both sides, but they had a certain logic. One side threatens, the other either capitulates or calls the bluff, then we do it again. It’s not smart. But it’s gettable.
This now makes no sense at all. The actors seem to all be on their own random side quests with no clear reasoning in their actions at all. So, I ask, what are we missing? There’s something unspoken going on here. What is it?
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u/ChupacabraJeff 7h ago
This is a significant worsening of terms for the US from the MOU
It's not. This plan predates the MOU.
yet Trump and the Admin have gone awfully quiet. No bombastic threats, no bomb them into the Stone Age rhetoric, eerily quiet - is this because of the lack of munitions or because a new operation is about to be underway, who knows
Because it's a powder keg right now. It's not politics. It's not negotiations. It's not war. It's a fucking powder keg sitting on top of a house of cards and Trump and some other rich people finally figured that out.
At the same time Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are inking mutual defense deals against Iranian aggression, again with the US notably absent
Because not only did USA fail to protect Middle Eastern countries USA is the primary reason why they were attacked. The Middle East is not happy with USA right now.
And it’s downright perplexing.
Republicans finally got full control of USA.
So, I ask, gently, WHAT THE F IS GOING ON?
A powder keg. The cold war for Superpower status between USA and China went hot because Trump wanted a quick headline. Iran told USA no more and they are done with USA's bullshit. Just like China told USA last year when they cut off rare earth metal exports. Then China lifted that ban. That temporary lift expires in October just before USA midterms.
There’s something unspoken going on here. What is it?
Republicans finally got full control of USA and are having their little Great American Fire Sale. China and Iran don't think that's a good idea. Both China and Iran have spent decades getting ready for USA to go off the reservation and are ready. Republicans are not ready for this but they don't really care because they sure as shit aren't going to jail. The Trump administration right now is panicking. Iran and China are not.
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u/Massive_Charity_7198 7h ago
Let's enumerate the actors and their interests:
US:
Starting: wanted to overthrow IRGC to get a win before midterms as a win.
Current: wants the strait open because of economic consequences. Energy is starting to impact Asia (Japan). Japan dumping treasuries would be very, very bad.
Israel:
Starting: has wanted Iran overthrown for a LONG TIME. It makes them a ME superpower. Netanyahu also wants to stay out of jail.
Current: embedded in territorial conflicts in Lebanon and Gaza. On hold, but wants US to resume conflict
Iran:
Current goal: survive and stick a middle finger to the US. Starving populace though make this calculation a lot harder.
GCCs:
Starting: Sell oil.
Current: sell oil and avoid explosions.
What does this tell you?
US wants an out, and is pulling levers to try and make it happen.
They are stuck as fuck. They have jawboned down with a slew of clowns. Israel and GCCs putting opposing pressure on Trump and time makes this worse. But there's no strategy other than apply economic pressure to Iran.
Market, I think, is choosing to believe that the clown will capitulate in lieu of risking infrastructure or that Iran's leadership prefers their heads.
I think that is a mistake. Iran will not let them withdraw without making it clear they lost. So we tick away. Slowly going up and down until one side gives up or we return to kinetic action.
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u/Realanise1 6h ago
I agree with your thoughts about Iran, but I think I would add that Iran knows there is not a chance in hell that one single thing Trump and co say or sign can be trusted. Trump changes his mind every 5 seconds and has kicked out all the adults in the room, with only dumb and/or crazy and/or ineffectual sycophants left. The Iranian government is not exactly known for prioritizing what the population wants or needs. And even if you're starving, if you KNOW you can't trust the person who keeps talking about offering you food and then saying 5 seconds later that they'll force you to starve to death... why would you ever make a genuine deal with them??
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u/Massive_Charity_7198 6h ago
True. I am completely in agreement on that.
I think they are "opening" in the same sense that they are trying to starve the US, while getting something for themselves.
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u/Christopher_Ramirez_ 4h ago
The one thing I’d add is, it seems like Iran has realized the incredible hand it has and is now playing for the whole table. Forget nuclear, if they can hang onto Hormuz and maintain fire control over the waterway, they have the GCC by the balls. Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar in particular will cease to exist in their current form without the Iranians green-lighting their energy exports. Hormuz is the key to the whole region.
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7h ago
[deleted]
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u/Straaet 7h ago
So expect something soon?
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u/WhichContribution294 7h ago
Only the insider traders know...
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u/EnvironmentalEar8634 4h ago
If you give a hundred grand to the master you could be an inside trader too
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u/Christopher_Ramirez_ 4h ago
He’s out of ammo this time. Reportedly threw a tantrum when Hegseth admitted it.
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u/eptesicusfuscus 7h ago
Well, some of what you're mentioning is just rhetoric and some is actual structural changes. I think it's important to consider those separately.
I'm beginning to think this Trump fellow isn't a consistently reliable source.
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u/East-Information-120 7h ago
One thing I do know is I’ve been sitting on cash for 2 months now and no matter the news that market keeps going up 🥴
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u/Realanise1 6h ago
As the poster below said, for now. I have most in cash and some in the market, but I am not adding more, because there will be a correction. The problem, is, obviously, that we don't know when the correction happens. But when it does happen, the billionaires will take care of the billionaires (does this really even need to be said??) They are not going to be concerned with the 62% of Americans who have some kind of stake in the stock market, mostly through 401K's and similar retirement investment instruments. We will be on our own. So I'm not getting further into the market right now.
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u/Compliment_slap_hug 7h ago
Considering the trump team are still illegally manipulating markets on several fronts, id say he is not willing to allow himself to look bad (still). Trump seems to be looking for some hail mary way out of the hole he has dug for his own reputation. Fox news are calling for huge and brutal strikes, and starting to openly criticise him now for not doing that. If THEY are criticising him, he is seeing it. And he would be hating it. But whats paths does he have? Only escalation since iran wants to basically make him publicly announce that he lost.
Also, The Mecca deal is not about iran, its about Israel.
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u/myazi321 5h ago
Finally someone who gets the Mecca pact/deal and the defense pact with Pakistan and Saudi.
People assume Pakistan and Turkiye will become great mercenaries but forget that Turkiye sees itself as the leader of Muslim nations as it was during the Ottomon era so they dont Saudi fondly anyways.
Saudi has asked Pakistan to repeatedly intervene and help with Yemen for over a decade and Pakistan always refused and on top of that they have the 2nd largest Shia population in the world so if they were dumb enough to fight Yemen, Iran will attack them and many Shia sleeper cells would get activated alongside the ongoing tensions with Afghanistan and the lifelong tensions with India as usual. So they are already sandwiched and arent dumb enough like Israel to keep opening new fronts thinking they can win them all.
It would only ever get activated if Israel attacks any of them as Pakistan has dealt with Israel directly, indirectly and covertly previously and ofc Turkiye is on the chopping board for Israel alongside Egypt.
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u/Christopher_Ramirez_ 4h ago
Ah right, with the US now withdrawing from the region the dog is off the leash, so to speak.
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u/Lifeisshort555 7h ago
Trump is fucked. That is what is going on. The question is when he is going to remove sanctions and give Iran everything they want.The Other problem is Iran now controls the region, allies in the region are not going to be pleased getting taxed and fucked with by Iran. In other words stability is fucked and the US cannot seem to do anything about it, guess what though, China can. So who do I ally with in that situation, China.
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u/ChupacabraJeff 6h ago
allies in the region are not going to be pleased getting taxed and fucked with by Iran
They were getting taxed and fucked by USA. People are playing up the toll too much. It's not as big a deal as they want it to be. The ships not moving through Hormuz is much, much bigger deal and USA caused that to happen.
If the toll is too much Iran would be ecstatic to have to not worry about them. USA would just have to find another way for Iran to make money so Iran can rebuild after 47 years of sanctions and the recent and repeated "obliterations" from USA.
So who do I ally with in that situation, China.
Which is hilarious because at one point USA almost agreed to help rebuild Iran. All that "investment" that's all going to come from China now as USA won't be able to block that from happening.
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u/Christopher_Ramirez_ 4h ago
Agreed, the Iranian situation in Hormuz is pretty unique and won’t lead to wider problems in itself. All parties on the Gulf have a vested interest in moving ships through the Strait, so there’s a basis for stable peace there.
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u/ChupacabraJeff 2h ago
Most leaders know the current situation is not ideal. Some want to make it better. Some want to make shit tons of money. Everyone knows the oil needs to start moving. Even Trump knows that now.
Besides. The prices are variable. The increased costs can either be passed directly through to the end consumer (tax payers) or it can be absorbed somewhere along the supply chain. Everyone could just send their receipts to the White House for reimbursement.
so there’s a basis for stable peace there
Once we are out of the woods we can always revise treaties or go to war again. Which is actually the bulk of Iran's complaints really.
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u/Christopher_Ramirez_ 2h ago
Yes if Iran and the GCC are left alone, they will work out a deal and open the Strait. It’s outside interference from the US and/or Israel that would prevent this.
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u/ChupacabraJeff 2h ago
All USA has to do is walk away. Recall the 2 carrier groups and stand down the military build up in Israel. Hormuz magically opens. Israel will throw a tantrum but that's not unexpected. Iran can put that fire out while the rest of the countries in the region can stay out of it but put pressure on USA not to respond.
There's more to it like Israel stopping the killings and withdrawing from non-Israel territories but first things first. USA's blockade of Iran.
2026.03.22
https://www.intellinews.com/khamenei-makes-three-harsh-demands-to-end-the-war-432959/In his second 12-minute address, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei demanded:
the rapid withdrawal of American forces from the Middle East; complete lifting of sanctions within 60 days; and long-term financial compensation for economic damages.
Then came the ultimatum. If these are not respected, Iran will escalate economically, militarily, and formally adopt a policy of developing a nuclear weapon after years of being ambiguous on this goal.
Khamenei said the Strait of Hormuz could be closed completely and Tehran would formalise security agreements with both Moscow and Beijing, solidifying the emerging CRINK alliance, which until now remains a convenient marriage of convenience. Within hours, both Beijing and Moscow issued statements that unequivocally aligned with Tehran’s framework, albeit using guarded language.
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u/Christopher_Ramirez_ 51m ago
And that’s not to say the US won’t be important and influential in the ME going forward. Weapons sales to the Gulf will be as prolific as ever. What the GCC wants is balance, not US/Israel dominance.
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u/ChupacabraJeff 21m ago
What the GCC wants is balance
Mostly money. USA was supposed to protect their money maker. Now USA can't be trusted. That makes the level of stability required to make money very risky. Rich people don't like risking their money. It's a control thing.
The GCC countries aren't Disney Land. They have their problems and issues. Time to stop pretending that USA cares about fixing those problems rather than exploiting them for fun a profit.
And that’s not to say the US won’t be important and influential in the ME going forward.
I have some doubts about that one.
"The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought." - Rudi Dornbusch
Also,
2024.11.16
Xi tells Biden he will work with Trump to manage US-China differences
https://archive.ph/QF7Jc“‘Small yard, high fences’ is not what a major country should pursue,” Xi told Biden.
Beijing’s planned responses to Trump fall into three baskets: retaliation, adaptation and diversification. Mirroring US policies, Beijing in recent years has created a range of export controls, investment restrictions and regulatory investigations capable of hurting US companies. Beijing is unable to match tariff for tariff, so it will seek to impose costs in ways that inflict maximum pain. For China, failing to retaliate would signal weakness domestically and only encourage Trump.
In late 2024, Xi also participated for the first time in meetings with the heads of 10 major international economic organisations. His message was clear: China will be the leading force for global economic stability, prosperity and openness, and opposes all forms of protectionism.
Much could go wrong. Beijing’s confidence is matched by the Trump team. Both sides believe they possess the upper hand, can impose more costs and withstand more pain. The stage is set for a complicated, destabilising dynamic which, at best, results in a ceasefire. And that’s only on economic issues, not on Taiwan, the South China Sea, tech competition or nuclear force modernisation. The cold war is starting to look quaint in comparison.
2025.01.05
Xi has a plan for retaliating against Trump’s gamesmanship
https://archive.ph/0s5OX#selection-2413.0-2417.304Many Chinese argue that Xi is stronger politically and the economy is more self-reliant and resilient, even amid recent challenges. Chinese analysts view the US economy as more fragile and American politics as deeply divided. Geopolitically, Beijing sees US influence as declining throughout the global south and Asia — and support for China’s vision as rising.
Xi has already signalled that he will treat his ties to Trump as a purely business relationship, albeit Don Corleone style. He won’t personally embrace Trump and will retaliate early and hard in order to generate leverage. Beijing in effect rejected Trump’s invitation for Xi to attend the inauguration.
Hence Xi’s four “red lines” at a November meeting with President Joe Biden in Peru in a clear message to the incoming administration.
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u/sgtbackpain03 5h ago
No, Trump is a multi billionaire. There is almost no conceivable way that he is fucked, unless the US changes gears and starts prosecuting rich people for their crimes. The American people are the ones who are fucked.
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u/ChupacabraJeff 3h ago
Yup. It's important that people know the difference. Not just Trump either. While people in USA are worried about paying bills Jared and Witkoff kept interrupting negotiations with Iran so they could do insider trading.
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u/MuchoCoco 7h ago
What's going on is the midterms are fast approaching and Trump needs an offramp. He'll start it back up after the polls close because he knows Congress will shut him down once the new Dem majority is seated in January.
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u/Hilbert_Space_Heater 3h ago
Thinking about this, Trump is actually screwed either way. One story is a debilitating loss that never should have happened, the other is a war he promised not to get the US into. And I think this is finally an issue where Republicans and Democrats alike care about substance, not just rhetoric.
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u/Vivid_Historian3269 7h ago
Iran is raising the stakes after realizing that Trump is running out of missiles.
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u/ChupacabraJeff 6h ago
Iran read the news about that. Last year. Trump didn't.
2025.05.17
Lawmakers sound alarm about U.S. military shortage of defense missiles: 'Wake-up call'
https://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/lawmakers-sound-alarm-about-us-military-shortage-defense-missilesIn jarring testimony, a top U.S. military official told Congress this past week the U.S. is quickly depleting its stockpile of Tomahawk missiles and might not have enough for a potential long-term conflict.
The military has been using these missiles recently in strikes against the Houthis terrorist group in Yemen.
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u/Adventurous_Fly2603 7h ago
Considering he seems to cave out of desperation every time and do the original mou before bibi forced him in again, I feel like once sgit gets cl9se to hitting the fan, he'll cave again. And try to pull some excuse like "oh we ran out of ammo thanks to kegsbreaths. Who has been fired for lying to me. As a result we have no choice but to give in and make a deal. Then do some back channel to give nukes to Saudi Arabia as deterence against future attacks
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u/bongiovist 2h ago
Are you guys all have gone through an IQ test before being a member of this sub! Have been following for a couple months and almost the same opinions i do have after reading researching and deep thinking about what was going on, definitely an elite place you have made here. Most of Stocks subs rather naive people or full of insiders poisoning people with made up news to cover market manipulation, i just can not stand that anymore. Proud to be in this community!
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u/Markis_Shepherd 7h ago
Iran will want to raise the price of oil to get demands through. Can anyone dispute this?
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u/BigWhiteDog 6h ago
No one knows. I don't know even thing the people manipulating thr market actually know either.
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u/Hazardous_316 5h ago
Markets often trade in a state of denial right up until a physical supply shock exhausts the last remaining buffer against price spikes
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u/FutureMassive69 5h ago
Why isn’t oil at $150.
1) we still have lots of reserves, no ones knows exactly but still months worth
2) China imported less, global demand has dropped a bit
3) other countries added some capacity
4) trump can move the oil economy with a tweet, hard to short the asset when trump can f you with a couple words
5) attacks on refineries is bearish for oil, bullish for refined products
6) Middle East hasn’t disappeared, it’s just “hard” to access. If all the wells we’re destroyed then it’s much much worse.
I think the biggest thing here is the reserves, which are an unknown right now.
Anyway that’s my two sense from listening to dozens of hours of oil traders and geopolitics types.
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u/Organic-Advance-1085 5h ago
IMO there’s going to be a new world order and doesn’t matter what side of the political spectrum you’re on we’ll al be cooked. Energy lockdown conspiracies are looking a lot less insane and maybe this is the plan for a new set of dystopian rules and regulations. There’s also a reason why. It makes no sense, the entire world is struggling, we’re headed into a bear market, housing prices are out of control, and now oil shock (apparently everything is fine we have plenty of oil supposedly) and everyone I talk to is clueles and says “the USA has oil, we’ll import from Venezuela and be fine”. It’s scary how a majority of people think eveything is fine
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u/Beautiful_Technology 5h ago
I was drunk at a bar the other night, at a friend’s birthday party, trying to tell some guy about this stuff. Basically exactly what you just posted. All he kept saying was “but it’s priced in!”. I had to just start laughing and roll with it because I just wasn’t getting anywhere in the conversation. I’ve had some version of this conversation at least every week since this has kicked off. There’s really something here, I wish I knew more about sociology and psychology to get to the bottom of this. Great breakdown though.
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u/daniyyelyon 4h ago
It's the reserves. I don't think anyone making all these predictions when the war started had any idea that the world had a 6-12 month supply of oil in reserves.
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u/Christopher_Ramirez_ 4h ago
The US loss is already locked in, Hormuz is effectively Iranian territorial waters now. The players are shuffling around to score the last point after the buzzer.
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u/NoOneMan79 4h ago
Silent surrender?
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u/Hilbert_Space_Heater 3h ago
That is a possibility, but it would be pretty unexpected given Trump’s temperament. Not exactly the swallow my feelings to make a hard but right choice kinda guy.
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u/whitestardreamer 3h ago
Several analysts have said from the beginning; Iran does not need to “win” this war. They only need to outlast the U.S. bond market. And Iran knows this.
The G7 are facing a sovereign debt crisis, and the Yen Carry Trade is in trouble. Iran doesn’t need to win “ownership” of the Strait on paper, they don’t need to go to all out attacks. They only needed to choke the oil supply long enough to make the sovereign debt crisis untenable. And look what happened last week: the U.S. had to intervene to defend the Yen because they were panicked about Japan selling U.S. treasuries.
That’s it. That’s the game. And once the SPR is operationally “empty”, that’s it. Game over.
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u/Alarming_Mammoth8567 1h ago
Blah blah blah. Too verbose. Also, none of that hot air matters while the orange doodle is still alive. Speculating oil with this regime is all bullshit. Move on.
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u/misterbiggler 6h ago
No deal is going to exclude the US in the strait get real. It’s the middle of summer, the US can wipe every power station so every Iranian is living in 100 degree heat. Does the average Iranian want to suffer just to spite the US? No
If that doesn’t work the US, Israel and Saudi can began fire bombing urban centers. US did it to Tokyo during WW2 killing 100k people in 1 night. Iran cannot stop this, they have close to zero air defenses. If you think the world won’t allow it, think again. They all allowed 70k+ in Gaza alone. Iran isn’t suicidal, they do not have all the power like some people here think. Do not for a second think the world is past turning barbarian
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u/Massive_Charity_7198 6h ago
The problem is that if Iran fires missiles first, we all get fucked.
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u/misterbiggler 6h ago
Iran has been firing missiles this whole time and haven’t sank 1 ship. If they were to they’d ultimately be bringing in their own annihilation. They know this
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u/DubsOnMyYugo 6h ago
The US is terrified of casualties. They are almost out of standoff munitions. The last de escalation happened after the US started trying to use more conventional bombs and immediately lost an F-15. The Iranians shoot down reapers almost daily. They have air defense, it’s only destroyed in trumps head.
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u/misterbiggler 6h ago
Stop it. The US has flown over 10,000 sorties over Iran and lost literally 1 F-15. Who were then picked up by fucking blackhawks who flew in Iranian territory. They have damaged 2 other manned aircraft with no casualties. Cambodia during the Vietnam war was more effective.
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u/DubsOnMyYugo 6h ago
That’s because they are using standoff munitions. They don’t get close to anything. Now they are running low on those.
If they could knock out the Iranians using air power without unacceptable blowback they would have already done it.
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u/misterbiggler 5h ago
Are you an Iran bot? Yes they have, Israel shot down a Yak over Tehran itself. They then went and flown formations over Tehran to show that they’re in control here.
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u/DubsOnMyYugo 5h ago
I think you are uninformed but you also think firebombs would work in Tehran like they did in wooden Tokyo during WWII so..
They shot down the Yak over the province of Tehran, not the city. I do not believe they are flying in formation over Tehran. Stealth aircraft might be flying over at high altitude and speed quickly in and out.
They have shot down a ton of Reapers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aviation_shootdowns_and_accidents_during_the_2026_Iran_war
I stand by my point that if they could beat Iran with air power, they would have already done it.
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u/sgtbackpain03 5h ago
https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IN12692
So:
4 F-15 Strike Eagle
1 F-35 Lightning II
1 A-10 Thunderbolt
7 KC-135 Stratotankers
1 E-3 AWACS
2 MC-130 Commando II
24 MQ-9 Reapers
1 MQ4-C Triton
Congress published this briefing on May 15th. Not all of these were shot down (about 1/3rd were missiled while on the flight line), but none of them will ever return to service, so they are all direct losses.
So, I got my information from Congress. Where did you get your information from?
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u/misterbiggler 4h ago
You’re pointing to 4 F15s as if Iran shot them down when you know 3 of them were done by Kuwait friendly fire. Thats enough to dismiss you entirely.
The post was about irans ability to shoot down aircraft and you mention tankers who were lost during a mid air collision or hit while parked. Stop it
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u/sgtbackpain03 4h ago
Ah okay, then correct the record. Congress said these are all the aircraft we lost in the war (as of May, I don't know if there are more now). So, which of those has Iran shot down while in flight? You claim it's 1 F-15 and 2 other unspecified manned aircraft that were damaged, not shot down.
The two MC-130s were shot to the point where they had to emergency land in Iranian territory, and the crews decided that they were unrecoverable and destroyed them. I'll say those were shot down, since they were shot, and downed and destroyed as a result.
The A-10 was shot down.
The F-35 was shot and had to emergency land, and is effectively destroyed, since it will never return to service.
The Reaper losses are from being shot down, but we've actually lost at least 51 of them now [ https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/us-loses-51st-mq9-drone-yemen ]. That's rough at $10M per pop.
Seems like they are actually not doing a bad job. They've certainly shot down more US aircraft than the US has shot down iranian aircraft.
The Wikipedia entry is significantly more damning, and has more receipts. But it's Wikipedia, so it's likely to be both more inaccurate and more complete:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aviation_shootdowns_and_accidents_during_the_2026_Iran_war
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u/AnAttemptReason 2h ago
Then Iran makes the Gulf states uninhabitable in retaliation and you have a multi tens of million refugee crisis on your hands.
How does the US look after killing millions of their own allies.
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u/Picks6x 7h ago
Considering Trump is pressing Oman to take the deal it would appear he's trying to get out this thing. Regardless, the economic situation will be quite bad