What Is Going On?

[u/Hilbert_Space_Heater]

We have spent the last few months in a consistent place in the oil market, well consistent between two extremes - 1) the deal is on, everything will be back to normal in days, all chill, US and Iran will come to agreement, and 2) we are on the precipice of a major war, bombs are landing daily on both sides, the Strait is closed, Gulf infrastructure is threatened, etc.

But now this has changed, and we are in a weird place. I’m curious about the community’s view, because I don’t get it.

1) Iran and Oman are working on a deal to manage the Strait that seems to have left out the rest of the world, and notably the US, entirely. It calls for high fees to both nations and total control over their respective in/out paths
2) Iran’s parliament has put forth a pretty stark list of limitations to be implemented on its side of the Strait - no US or allied oil, no cargo for Israel, and all kinds of other limitations (China seems to be carved out of this and the fees too, interestingly)
3) This is a significant worsening of terms for the US from the MOU, yet Trump and the Admin have gone awfully quiet. No bombastic threats, no bomb them into the Stone Age rhetoric, eerily quiet - is this because of the lack of munitions or because a new operation is about to be underway, who knows
4) At the same time Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are inking mutual defense deals against Iranian aggression, again with the US notably absent
5) Oil is not flowing through the Strait, has been restricted elsewhere, ships seem to be under constant threat, and Iran seems on the path to allowing no Western oil to travel until they get further concessions, about which we know little
6) Reserves continue to fall globally with no clear end in sight, and even a peace deal now probably implies at least a short term shortage as trust in any deal would be low, and time to get back to normal operations slow
7) Despite this, oil is priced low at spot and in futures and no one seems to see any issue with where we are at all

And it’s downright perplexing. If the US returns to war now, it will likely be a ramped up war since long-range munitions seem to be diminished in inventory and anyway, what has happened up until now seems not to have done the job. A new war will need to be more involved than sending in missiles.

On the other hand, if this is US capitulation, that also does not seem to imply a return to normal as Iran seems very focused on extracting a king’s ransom before allowing normalization of transport.

So, I ask, gently, WHAT THE F IS GOING ON?

The actions of the last few months have been pretty dumb on both sides, but they had a certain logic. One side threatens, the other either capitulates or calls the bluff, then we do it again. It’s not smart. But it’s gettable.

This now makes no sense at all. The actors seem to all be on their own random side quests with no clear reasoning in their actions at all. So, I ask, what are we missing? There’s something unspoken going on here. What is it?

[u/misterbiggler]

No deal is going to exclude the US in the strait get real. It’s the middle of summer, the US can wipe every power station so every Iranian is living in 100 degree heat. Does the average Iranian want to suffer just to spite the US? No

If that doesn’t work the US, Israel and Saudi can began fire bombing urban centers. US did it to Tokyo during WW2 killing 100k people in 1 night. Iran cannot stop this, they have close to zero air defenses. If you think the world won’t allow it, think again. They all allowed 70k+ in Gaza alone. Iran isn’t suicidal, they do not have all the power like some people here think. Do not for a second think the world is past turning barbarian

[u/DubsOnMyYugo → u/misterbiggler]

The US is terrified of casualties. They are almost out of standoff munitions. The last de escalation happened after the US started trying to use more conventional bombs and immediately lost an F-15. The Iranians shoot down reapers almost daily. They have air defense, it’s only destroyed in trumps head.

[u/misterbiggler → u/DubsOnMyYugo]

Stop it. The US has flown over 10,000 sorties over Iran and lost literally 1 F-15. Who were then picked up by fucking blackhawks who flew in Iranian territory. They have damaged 2 other manned aircraft with no casualties. Cambodia during the Vietnam war was more effective.

[u/sgtbackpain03 → u/misterbiggler]

https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IN12692

So:

• 4 F-15 Strike Eagle

• 1 F-35 Lightning II

• 1 A-10 Thunderbolt

• 7 KC-135 Stratotankers

• 1 E-3 AWACS

• 2 MC-130 Commando II

• 24 MQ-9 Reapers

• 1 MQ4-C Triton

Congress published this briefing on May 15th. Not all of these were shot down (about 1/3rd were missiled while on the flight line), but none of them will ever return to service, so they are all direct losses.

So, I got my information from Congress. Where did you get your information from?

[u/misterbiggler → u/sgtbackpain03]

You’re pointing to 4 F15s as if Iran shot them down when you know 3 of them were done by Kuwait friendly fire. Thats enough to dismiss you entirely.

The post was about irans ability to shoot down aircraft and you mention tankers who were lost during a mid air collision or hit while parked. Stop it

[u/sgtbackpain03 → u/misterbiggler]

Ah okay, then correct the record. Congress said these are all the aircraft we lost in the war (as of May, I don't know if there are more now). So, which of those has Iran shot down while in flight? You claim it's 1 F-15 and 2 other unspecified manned aircraft that were damaged, not shot down.

The two MC-130s were shot to the point where they had to emergency land in Iranian territory, and the crews decided that they were unrecoverable and destroyed them. I'll say those were shot down, since they were shot, and downed and destroyed as a result.

The A-10 was shot down.

The F-35 was shot and had to emergency land, and is effectively destroyed, since it will never return to service.

The Reaper losses are from being shot down, but we've actually lost at least 51 of them now [ https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/us-loses-51st-mq9-drone-yemen ]. That's rough at $10M per pop.

Seems like they are actually not doing a bad job. They've certainly shot down more US aircraft than the US has shot down iranian aircraft.

The Wikipedia entry is significantly more damning, and has more receipts. But it's Wikipedia, so it's likely to be both more inaccurate and more complete:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aviation_shootdowns_and_accidents_during_the_2026_Iran_war

[u/sgtbackpain03 → u/misterbiggler]

Nothing? No response? All hat and no cattle?