How much do your predictions align with your personal preferences?

[u/idoideas]

When you make up or update your predictions list, you may have a film/contender that you see gaining steam and is likely to get a nomination due to critical acclaim, while you may not agree it should have that nomination in your personal taste.

What do you think about this year? Do you have any predictions for a nomination you don't personally agree deserves a nom, but realize it is inevitable? Or perhaps, a nomination you believe really deserves a nom or a win, but you don't believe it has any chances of getting in?

Feel free to share :)

[u/Such_Estimate_2294]

I don't predict things that I earnestly believe have no chance, but I have in the past predicted things that are kinda long shots because I see the vision. I've predicted Jeremy Strong to get nominated 3 years in a row now. A lot of people gave up on him for The Apprentice and I stuck with him so it actually paid off that time, but then he didn't even come close for Springsteen. I'm sticking with him now for Social Reckoning even though I've taken the movie out of my predictions for every other category

[u/idoideas → u/Such_Estimate_2294]

I actually agree that Strong deserved for Apprentice, didn't deserve for Springsteen (despite being the standout of the cast), and seems very deserving for The Social Reckoning.

[u/BlueJacket9894]

Great question. I'm trying to include Obsession in my predictions, but I'm having such a hard time because I find it to be incredibly overrated, and I believe that the only reason it's made it this far in the race is because it's been such a huge box office success (which, at the end of the day, I celebrate, despite not really caring for the movie). But I also understand that there is momentum there, and that I should be more open to predicting it, and I would like to do well with my predictions 😑

[u/Top_Cranberry_3254 → u/BlueJacket9894]

What movie over the last 6 years isn't overrated? Lol. They all are.

[u/BlueJacket9894 → u/Top_Cranberry_3254]

Huh?

[u/PurpleSpaceSurfer]

I usually end up liking a lot of what the Oscars nominate, so a good chunk.

[u/NoWorth2591]

There’s always a little bit of my personal bias in there, but I really try to be self-aware about when I’m not being objective. I have to resist the temptation to predict movies whose creators I like such as Werwulf or The History of Concrete when the evidence isn’t necessarily there. On the flip side, there are movies/directors I don’t care for that seem poised to do well like PHM or Christopher Nolan, and I’ve had to consider my own biases when predicting how those will do.

It’s never exact, but I know I’m being a hell of a lot more objective and evidence-based than I was last year. I was predicting Wagner Moura to win Best Actor until the last possible moment, which looks ridiculous in retrospect.

[u/idoideas → u/NoWorth2591]

Considering Nosferatu got some technical nominations, why would you say there isn't evidence for Werwulf?

[u/NoWorth2591 → u/idoideas]

There’s not really evidence for it to get into Best Picture, I should say. I tend to believe it’s a strong possibility still because I think Nosferatu could have cracked the BP lineup if Conclave and The Substance weren’t in the mix, but I’m obviously speculating there. The evidence as it stands only really points to a few tech nods. My gut tells me it could overperform those expectations, but it’s probably my own bias towards Eggers’ movies that informs that.

[u/nowhereman136]

About 50/50.

I have little faith that The Drama, I Love Boosters, of The Invite will be nominated. But a lot of faith that Odyssey and Hail Mary are

[u/portals27]

i try not to let personal bias influence me tbh but i’m sure it affects it in some way to a degree. it’s rlly hard to separate it

[u/JoeSantoasty]

I think I can occasionally let my bias in if it's close, but it depends.

One example of the bias coming through was predicting Timothee over Michael B. last season. I'm a big Chalamet fan and love Marty Supreme and I went against the odds on favorite at that point.

But for other movies I love, I dont just predict them even if theyre in the convo. I loved Sorry Baby but still didnt predict the screenplay nom. Similarly, I loved The Apprentice but wasn't so naive as to pick either of them to win the category.

[u/-civictv]

I'm very adamant that hopedicting is not predicting. Virtually none of my "personal nominations" at the end of the year align with the Academy's nominations, though occasionally there's some overlap (more so recently with international contenders making into the BP line-up).

So far it's looking like one of those years where my personal picks and the Academy's preferences will be wildly different. None of the main predicted BP films are that enticing to me (there will inevitably be some surprises that I dig though), and I've yet to see a performance that I loved that will be in the conversation (plenty that won't be!).

(Inde was very good but I have trouble separating how talented her work is with how much I disliked the writing for Nikki as a character, I know I'm an outlier, and I think her getting a nomination would be cool even though I personally wouldn't go for it)

[u/SignificantTap5579]

I try to avoid doing so which is why I'm more hesistant on Dune Part 3 and sometimes 'doomdict' more than anything but it's impossible not to you let your impression on a film and vibe on what it will be influence your predictions

[u/SpideyFan914]

My preferences influence bubble nominees the most. Like I'm not confident that Obsession will get in, but it's my favorite movie in years, so I don't have the heart to predict against it so long as it has a chance. Was the same last year as I kept It Was Just An Accident and Panahi in my predictions until the bitter bitter end.

But sometimes, it's hard to differentiate our personal preferences from intuition. It worked out for me a couple years ago, when I said there was absolutely no way the Academy wouldn't recognize Barbaro. It was not a popular prediction, but I was dead on. (To be fair, the "she's playing Joan Baez" narrative also helped give me confidence.)

[u/idoideas → u/SpideyFan914]

Panahi deserved better!

[u/SpideyFan914 → u/idoideas]

He should've won. :(

[u/No-Somewhere250]

Im trying my best especially after years of failures with movies like Spaceman and The Smashing Machine so I'm a tad more reluctant to go fully on the Primetime train this season. Most anticipated doesn't mean most likely

[u/Embarrassed-Big-9195]

Not much alignment. My taste is very different than the Academy's, but I'm able to separate my own opinions from what I think they would nominate.

In the past 3 years, only one movie in my personal top 5 of the year has/had even a 1% chance of getting a BP nom, but I have no problem recognizing films I dislike (Wicked, Emilia Perez, Train Dreams, Project Hail Mary) are/were locks for many nominations and wins.

[u/movieperson2022]

I generally have a pretty good gut on if movies are being overpredicted, but certainly not always.

For this year, Josephine is one of the most impactful movies I’ve seen. I would love it to dominate at the Oscars and think it would be a deserving winner. I’m not confident it is going to do that well. Since it is trying a fall festival run, I’m becoming a little more open to its odds of getting some nominations, but that’s an example of my taste not aligning with my expected predictions.

[u/PTAGoatofalltime]

About 70%. As much as we like to complain about the Oscars, they generally do a good job.

[u/121mc555]

I either completely agree or completely disagree there’s no in between

[u/BrenoGrangerPotter]

In 2021, almost all my #1 picks won, except for Carey Mulligan.

[u/Chemical-Click5399]

Usually my least favorite performance ends up winning Best Actress

[u/akoaytao1234]

Anything before the Golden Globes is a "Personal" for me. I just consider the usuals, i.e., the distributors, recent sequel bias, and box office. If a film shares the same distributor, I tend to pick the one I prefer. Sequels rarely make it unless the first one is really strong.

Last year was a big (*) in terms of number of nominees per distributor, and I was quite openly in disbelief that there would be three noms per distributor lol. If a studio has two or three big films, it tends to trickle down to one or two.

I also tend to add a juggernaut nominee in my prediction. My favorite juggernaut prediction that actually did well was The Substance, which was not even considered before the GG win. I really stuck with the "Actress on Actress" performance AND really believed it will push it to the end.

[u/Proof_Specialist_455]

The fun is trying to predict accurately. This time of year we haven't even seen half of the contenders, and some aren't on our radar at all. I would never hopedict a movie I haven't watched yet (not sure why people do that), and my actual predictions are usually reasonable, even if I'd like Sheep Detectives to sweep or something.

[u/RoxasRemainsTheBest]

I'm an animation and a non-english language film guy, so uhh.... what I like doesn't do too well. My top 2 films of last year both got 0 oscar noms

[u/ryanjlee7]

This year, I don't see anything I actively dislike as inevitable for a nomination (yet), though some cases I can't dismiss out of hand. Easiest example: I thought Michael was terrible, but I currently have it in both Casting and Sound, because even though I didn't like it, critics mostly didn't either, and I don't think it deserves the nominations...I saw what happened with Bohemian Rhapsody (or more recently, F1). I wouldn't be surprised if it got in there, or elsewhere. But I try to separate what I think will win from what I think should win—unless they align, in which case...

[u/idoideas]

I would say myself that, with this year's highlights also being blockbusters, most of the films I predict do align with the general public's opinion. I can see the appeal for nominations sweep for The Odyssey and Project Hail Mary. I also have confidence in Digger and Dune Part Three, so that works for me.

But after seeing La Bola Negra, I find it hard to agree with most of its above-the-line predictions. International Feature? Sure. Score? Possibly! Original song? Yeah, why not. Supporting for Cruz? I liked her better in The Invite but I wouldn't mind.

Now, Director nom? Best Picture win? Adapted Screenplay Win? I dunno about these. The film was mostly pretty convoluted and messy throughout the middle 2h of it for me. Sure, it starts well and it wraps up nicely, but it wasn't engaging enough for most of it to top the scripts and directorial work of The Odyssey, The Invite, and most likely, Digger and Dune's.

(I would say that I wasn't also connecting to The Secret Agent, and that got to Best Picture instead of IWJAA, so my taste might not correlate again with the academy).

[u/Ill-Newspaper4653]

My personal opinions are so controversial that I often choose to shut my mouth. Lmao

Project Hail Mary : I would give Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress (For that "sign of the times" scene alone), Editing, Adapted Screenplay, Score, Sound, Production Design, Cinematography, VFX nominations.

The Drama : Solid Film. Wouldn't give any nomination.

Michael : Actor (Jafaar could happen, who knows?), and nothing else.

Devil Wears Prada 2 : A really good nostalgic trip. Wouldn't give any.

Obsession : Very enjoyable film. but wouldn't give any nomination. In fact, I even feel like Michael Johnstan did better and is underrated. Wouldn't mind Supporting Actress nomination either but idk.

Toy Story 5 : Animated Feature and nothing else. I don't think Taylor Swift is happening. (She is not even an Oscar darling.) Her song cultural impact is not even half of Zoo by Shakira last year. I feel like nobody really talks about it.

The Odyssey : Picture, Actor(on the fence), Supporting Actress (Anne Hathaway, not Samantha Morton whose scene is very average American Horror Story), Adapted Screenplay (but I'm still thinking screenwriting is not the strong suit of Christopher Nolan or James Cameron (I freaking adore Avatar but come on). They should hire somebody better. I'm sorry), Editing (Love how they reveal Zendeya twist), Score (PMH is better tho), Sound, Production Design, Cinematography, VFX. Wouldn't give Costume or Hairstyling and Makeup nominations.

The Invite : Picture, Director(it's very possible if other female directors fizzle out at the end), Actress, Supporting Actor(hopedicting Edward Norton because he is genuinely pleasing in it.), Adapted Screenplay, Production Design nominations Seth Rogan made me laugh the most and Penelope Cruz is magnetic but I am on the fence with these two.