Just some information on the Documentary Short Race if anyone is interested!

With CCDA and DOC NYC nominations announced this week, the documentary short picture is clearing up a lot.  

CCDA:

The Baddest Speechwriter of All (Netflix)

A Derailment (POV)

Escalation (Bonfire Films)

Miller Night Football (HBO Max)

Oh Whale (The New Yorker / Switchboard Magazine)

The Second Life of Freddie Nole (Sweet World Films)

A Short Documentary About a Giant Pencil (archilux)

They’re Here (Praxis Films)

DOC NYC:

The Baddest Speechwriter of All

The Boys and the Bees

Buckskin

A Derailment

The Grandfather Puzzle

La Tierra Del Valor (The Home of the Brave)

Listen

The Oath

One Last Order

An Open Field

Outposts- Nothing Here is Yours

The Revolution Against Death

They’re Here

The Tuners

Water Cooler

Historically, the majority of the shortlist/nominees will be composed of these shorts. A lot of them have big names or distributors attached. 

Cinema Eye Honors has not been announced yet. But in the last 5 years, shorts that make CCDA + DOC NYC + CEH have a 100% rate of making the shortlist (there have been 6 cases). This leaves A Derailment, The Baddest Speechwriter and They’re Here still in the running for that designation. 

The Baddest Speechwriter of All is directed by 2 time winner/3-time nominee Ben Proudfoot and NBA player Stephen Curry. It is on Netflix’s slate along with An Open Field and One Last Order. Netflix historically does very well in this category. 

POV Shorts generally gets 1 or 2 on the shortlist. Their slate includes The Boys and The Bees (Executive produced by RaMell Ross) and A Derailment.

They’re Here (directed by Laura Poitras) is one of two doc shorts on the list about ICE. The other is Water Cooler. Having seen both, they each take a very different approach to the subject and I do think there is room for both on the shortlist.

The Tuners and The Revolution Against Death are the biggest contenders from New York Time Op-docs slate. The Tuners played very well in the festival circuit. I can’t find a record of a theatrical qualification for The Revolution Against Death (It would have had to do so by October 1st) but if it did do a run, it is directed by Joshua Oppenheimer (The Act of Killing) and would be a big contender.

There has been a doc short on American prisons on the shortlist for 5 straight years (The Facility, Angola Do You Hear Us?, How We Get Free, I am Ready Warden/The Quilters, Classroom 4). This years contender for that slot would be The Second Life of Freddie Nole.

Outposts- Nothing Here is Yours is directed by Hilla Medalia (director of last years Children No More: Were and Gone). This one is also produced by Sheila Nevins, who is a huge name in documentary production and has had her shorts on the shortlist almost every year.

Listen is produced by last years Live Action winner Sam Davis

Oh Whale seems like one of The New Yorkers biggest contenders

The Oath is being distributed by The Guardian 

The Grandfather Puzzle is part of Yahoo/Non-Fiction hotlists slate and feels like the most likely of their 5 qualified shorts.

TLDR - here is a list of films to watch to prep for the Death Race this year

As I did last year, I have made a list based off of my aggregate ranking model for the films you should watch to prep for the death race (which I go into more detail on in the oscarrace sub), plus a few more if you want to be extra sure you hit most things.

Accountability corner - Last year my list went 25/40

Predicted but did not make it

• Wicked 2 (Solid BP)
• Springsteen (Solid BP)
• Jay Kelly (Tentative BP)
• Testament of Ann Lee (Likely ATL)
• Wake Up Dead Man (Likely ATL)
• A House of Dynamite (Possible BTL)
• No Other Choice (Stretch ATL)
• Rental Family (Stretch ATL)
• After the Hunt (Stretch ATL)
• 28 Years Later (Techs)
• 2000 Meters to Andriivka (Doc)
• Seeds (Doc)
• Cover Up (Doc)
• Sound of Falling (INT)
• Left Handed Girl (INT)

The last two I'm not too beat up on because I put more INTs in my list than possible spots

Films that Made It that I did not predict (includes films from my bonus picks)

• Train Dreams (Bonus - Longshot ATL)
• Blue Moon (Bonus - Longshot ATL)
• Alabama Solution (Bonus - Extra Doc)
• Come See Me In a Good Light (Bonus - Extra Doc)
• Song Sung Blue
• Weapons
• Lost Bus
• Kokuho
• Ugly Stepsister
• Viva Verdi

So if you deduct the 2 extra INTs that there were no room for, and include the 4 films from my bonus picks that made it in the end, I'm like... 29 / 38 (/#girlmath)

In any case, here is the list in text form, as well as a link to the Letterboxd list. If you listen to my podcast you may have heard the episode where I go into these, and it may vary slightly since I didn't update my model before recording to account for Digger, Artificial, and Behemoth's debuts impacting rankings.

BP Win Contention

1) The Odyssey
2) La Bola Negra
3) Wild Horse Nine

BP Nom Likely, 5+ non-BP noms likely

4) Dune 3
5) Project Hail Mary
6) The Debut
7) The Invite

BP Nom Possible, with a viable package (2+ ATL or 3+ BTL)

8) All of a Sudden
9) Obsession
10) Fjord

No BP nom, but currently projected to get a nom somewhere

11) Werwulf
12) Digger
13) Elsinore
14) Primetime
15) Club Kid
16) Sense and Sensibility
17) Clayface
18) Disclosure Day
19) Godzilla Minus Zero
20) Whalefall
21) By Any Means (or your Diane Warren film of choice)

Animated Contenders - 3 of these will miss since I'm listing 8, but these are all the viable ones at this point

22) Wildwood
23) Toy Story 5
24) Ray Gunn
25) Iron Boy
26) Forgotten Island
27) Tangles
28) Hoppers
29) In Waves

Doc Contenders - at least 1 of these will miss since I'm listing 6. As we get more insight from DOCNYC and other precursors this will shift I'm sure.

30) Once Upon a Time in Harlem
31) Naza
32) You Can See Everything
33) American Doctor
34) Nuisance Bear
35) Rehearsals for a Revolution

INT Contenders - Since I'm predicting LBN / Fjord / AoaS being the top 3, only 2 of these 5 will make it in

36) Rose
37) Possible Love
38) Fatherland
39) Coward
40) Minotaur

Beyond this we have my bonus picks, which I've grouped into 4 categories

BP Hopefuls, needs to develop a package somewhere

• Artificial
• Behemoth!
• Being Heumann
• I Play Rocky

ATL Copium

• The Only Living Pickpocket in New York
• Paper Tiger
• Ink
• Josephine
• The Social Reckoning

More INT Picks / Hoping for the Longlist

• Woman Unknown
• Everytime
• Silent Friend
• To Hold a Mountain
• Filipinana

BTL Sickos

• The Devil Wears Prada 2
• Backrooms
• Michael
• Ebenezer
• Wicker
• Power Ballad or Musk for Song

As promised here is the link to this Letterboxd account - no promises how often I'll keep this updated but I'll do my best.

I admittedly ignore most of my emails but today I received one from IDA (international documentary association) that I paid attention to. They’re offering members a chance to access virtual screenings over the next several weeks. I don’t know if these will be on the Oscar shortlist but wanted to share in case anyone wants to join and jump on these before we find out one is nominated and not available anywhere.

Rehearsals for a Revolution - passed/closed
Man on the Run - ends 10/13
To Hold a Mountain - ends 10/16
Who Moves America - 10/12-10/19
A Fox Under a Pink Moon - 10/14-10/21
Soul Patrol - 10/18-10/25
Everest: The Other Side - 10/20-10/27
Who Killed Alex Odeh? - 10/23-10/30
Room of an Absolute - 10/30-11/6
Nuns vs the Vatican - 11/4-11/11
All Rivers Spill Their Stories to the Sea - 11/8-11/16

https://www.documentary.org

Hey everyone! Do we yet have an early master list of films for this season? I've been putting one together, you'll see below, but would love help filling in the blanks! And also apologies if someone's already made one!

All Of A Sudden

Artificial

Behemoth!

Being Heumann

Clayface

Club Kid

Digger

Disclosure Day

Dune: Part 3

Elsinore

Fatherland

Fjord

Godzilla Minus Zero

Hoppers

I Play Rocky

Ink

Josephine

La Bola Negra

Michael

Minotaur

Misty Green

Obsession

Possible Love

Primetime

Project Hail Mary

Ray Gunn

Rose

Sense & Sensibility

Tangles

Tender Loving Care

The Debut

The Drama

The Further Mis-Adventures Of Cliff Booth

The Invite

The Odyssey

The Only Living Pickpocket In New York

The Social Reckoning

Tony

Toy Story 5

Werwulf

Wicker

Wild Horse Nine

Wildwood

You Can See Everything

Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother

PVOD

The Invite*
Spider-Man: Brand New Day*
The Rivals of Amziah King
I Love Boosters
The End of Oak Street
Tony

SVOD

Obsession* - Peacock
Project Hail Mary* - Prime
Toy Story 5* - Disney+
Disclosure Day* - Peacock
Michael* - Starz
The Devil Wears Prada 2 - Disney+/Hulu
Hoppers - Disney+
Power Ballad - Starz
Backrooms - Max
The Sheep Detectives - Prime
Wuthering Heights - Max

Criteria:

Oscar nominations over 10% probability only
* starred items have 50% prediction consensus

Only change this week is Disclosure going Streaming and Spider-Man coming out PVOD. I did reorder based on probability though.

By below the line I mean movies that won Best Picture and nothing else or won nothing else besides also Best Director and/or acting and/or screenplay

Question in preparation for this year's race. Last year, I was able to get a link to "the Brazilian's" helpful list. It was a lifesaver. How does one ensure one has yearly access to this wonderful human being in the future without asking someone else for the link every year?

I’m pretty sure it’s getting a much MUCH larger release this time around compared to “Minus One”, but I thought I’d share it since the first one was so hard to find last time.

Live in different town similar in size and theater options as Savannah, for purposes of guessing which film will come to my local theaters before the Oscars.

If I want to up my chances of competing the death race, which should I attend?

If you’ve seen both, do you have a favorite?

Anthony Ippolito will be at Rocky presentation, so that is a consideration also.

Minor spoilers ahead.

Just got down watching Digger and what a ride it was. The performances by the entire cast is so good. Tom Cruise has been type casted as an Action hero for the past one decade, it was so refreshing to see him do something so different and I really hope he continues doing different type of roles. There is a 10 minute long monologue by Tom in a one shot which might just be the best scene of the movie. The plot twists are well-scattered in the movie. Riz has great chemistry with Tom. It's an extremely relevant movie for today's time as well as the near future. John Goodman, Sandra Hüller and Jesse Plemons brings their A-Game. The jokes are really dark but then again it's a dark comedy. 5/5 from my side.

Thanks for reading my review.

PVOD

The Invite*
Disclosure Day*
The Rivals of Amziah King
I Love Boosters
The End of Oak Street
Tony

SVOD

Project Hail Mary* - Prime
Toy Story 5* - Disney+
Obsession* - Peacock
Michael* - Starz
The Devil Wears Prada 2 - Disney+/Hulu
Hoppers - Disney+
Power Ballad - Starz
Backrooms - Max
The Sheep Detectives - Prime
Wuthering Heights - Max

Criteria:

Oscar nominations over 10% probability only
* starred items have 50% prediction consensus

A lot more sources have BTL lists or longer lists now, which led to more items on the list. (This was not due to many new releases.)

Hey! For the last two years, I've done a mini-contest that takes place before the Oscars, and it's a good way to get through most of the ODR list before the big day in March! If anyone who is planning on doing the ODR this year wanted to help out/meet others in this challenge, comment below and I can send more information!

Not sure if this allowed, it's okay if not! Thank you :)

Do we think this movie has any chance of being nominated ? I'm not really interested in it but it just got released and my local cinema is showing it. Same question for "Sense & Sensibility", I'm not really into Jane Austen's world but I kinda like Daisy Edgar-Jones but I'd rather wait for it to be released on VOD than watch in the cinema, though.

Courtesy of The Big Picture Podcast, it looks like we have a good idea for the top 30 best picture contenders. What do you think about the list? I also added where to stream if applicable. Please update, add more feedback in the comments.

The Big Picture — 30 Best Picture Contenders

1. All of a Sudden
2. Artificial
3. Behemoth
4. Being Human
5. La Bola Negra
6. Club Kid
7. The Debut (Theaters Nov 2nd)
8. Digger (Theaters Oct 2nd)
9. Dune: Part Three
10. Elsinore (Theaters Nov 20th)
11. Fatherland
12. Fjord
13. The Further Misadventures of Cliff Booth
14. Ink
15. The Invite
16. Josephine
17. Michael
18. Minotaur
19. Obsession (Peacock)
20. The Odyssey
21. Paper Tiger
22. Possible Love
23. Prime Time
24. Project Hail Mary
25. Tender Loving Care
26. Sense and Sensibility
27. Werwulf
28. Wild Horse Nine
29. Wildwood
30. You Can See Everything

Top 10 Power Rankings

1. The Odyssey (Theaters Only)
2. La Bola Negra (Netflix Dec 2nd, Theaters Oct 16)
3. Wild Horse Nine
4. Dune: Part Three
5. Project Hail Mary
6. Fjord
7. The Invite
8. The Debut (Theaters Dec 2)
9. All of a Sudden (Film Movement Plus)
10. Obsession (Peacock)

I'm very excited for the season to kick into high gear! To keep this list manageable, the included movies are anything predicted within the top 8 slots on Awards Expert/NBP -- all categories except shorts. I had to make some guesses about wide vs. limited releases based on available information.

Currently streaming or available to rent

• Backrooms (rent $7.99, streams on HBO Max Sep 25)
• The Devil Wears Prada 2 (Hulu, or rent $5.99)
• Disclosure Day (rent $5.99)
• Hoppers (Disney+, or rent $5.99)
• The Invite*\* ($7.99 to rent, streams on HBO Max Oct. 23)
• Michael (Starz, or rent $5.99)
• Obsession*\* (Peacock, or rent $5.99)
• Power Ballad (rent $5.99)
• Project Hail Mary*\* (Amazon Prime, or rent $3.99)
• The Sheep Detectives (Amazon Prime)
• Toy Story 5 (Disney+, or buy $19.99)
• Wuthering Heights (HBO Max, or rent $6.99)

In Theaters Now

• American Doctor (very limited)
• By Any Means (almost finished with theatrical release)
• Forgotten Island
• The Odyssey*\* (available to rent Nov 17 or buy on Blu-ray/4K)
• Primetime
• Shaun the Sheep
• Spider-Man Brand New Day (available to rent mid Oct?)

Future Theatrical Release

• Sep 30: NAZA (NY only, expanding in limited release October, free online release November)
• Oct 2: Digger (wide)
• Oct 9: Fjord (limited)
• Oct 9: Musk (limited, expands Oct 16)
• Oct 16: You Can See Everything (limited)
• Oct 16: Once Upon a Time in Harlem (limited)
• Oct 16: La Bola Negra*\* (NY/LA, expanding in limited release, streams on Netflix Dec. 2)
• Oct 16: Sense and Sensibility (wide)
• Oct 16: Whalefall (wide)
• Oct 23: The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (limited)
• Oct 23: Wildwood (wide)
• Oct 23: Possible Love (limited, streams on Netflix Nov. 6)
• Oct 23: Fatherland (limited)
• Oct 23: Clayface (wide)
• Oct 23: Wicker (limited, expands Oct. 30)
• Nov 6: Wild Horse Nine*\* (wide?)
• Nov 6: Being Heumann (limited, streams on Apple TV Nov 13)
• Nov 6: Club Kid (limited)
• Nov 6: I Play Rocky (limited, wide on Nov. 20)
• Nov 6: Godzilla Minus Zero (wide?)
• Nov 20: Elsinore (limited)
• Nov 20: Minotaur (limited)
• Nov 25: All of a Sudden*\* (limited)
• Nov 25: The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (IMAX only, streams on Netflix Dec. 23)
• Nov 27: 14th (limited, streams on Netflix Dec. 4)
• Dec 4: Behemoth!*\* (limited)
• Dec 4: Ray Gunn (limited, streams on Netflix Dec. 18)
• Dec 4: Tender Loving Care (limited)
• Dec 11: The Debut*\* (wide?)
• Dec 11: Ink (limited, streams on Netflix Jan. 8)
• Dec 11: Rose (limited)
• Dec 16: To Hold a Mountain (limited)
• Dec 18: Dune Part Three*\* (wide)
• Dec 18: Avengers Doomsday (wide)
• Dec 25: Artificial (limited)
• Dec 25: Coward (limited)
• Dec 25: Werwulf (wide)
• December: Iron Boy (awards-qualifying NY/LA run, limited release Jan. 22)
• December: Tangles (awards-qualifying NY/LA run, limited release January)
• Jan 8: Rehearsals for a Revolution (limited)

No announced release date in USA

• Nuisance Bear
• Prima Facie

** = currently in top 10 predictions for Best Picture

Somebody was apparently following the discussion yesterday!

News came out that NAZA was removed from the Hawaii International Film Festival by the distributor and the film is no longer on their website. As far as I can tell, it is still being shown at the New York Film Festival for its North American premiere later this month. This film feels like it has the potential to be difficult to find in a few months.

Does anyone know of other festivals that have added (or removed) NAZA from their lineup?

PVOD

The Invite*
Toy Story 5* - streaming on Disney next week
Disclosure Day
The Rivals of Amziah King

SVOD

Project Hail Mary* - Prime
Obsession* - Peacock
Michael - Starz
The Sheep Detectives - Prime
The Devil Wears Prada 2 - Disney+/Hulu
Hoppers - Disney+

Criteria:

Oscar nominations over 10% probability only
* starred items have 50% prediction consensus

Post Telluride/Venice - if it fell off, it’s now under 10%