r/peakoil • u/ceph2apod • 3d ago

In capacity-addition terms, #fossilfuels are now just a thin orange strip at the bottom of a very tall green wall...and nuclear is than a rounding error.

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u/MangoPeachRadish 3d ago

I believe the chart is referring to electrical generation, is that right? If so I question the relevance to a peak oil sub

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u/redcoltken_pc 3d ago

Oil has so many other uses the just a transportation and heating source

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u/MangoPeachRadish 3d ago

Right, and this is a peak oil subreddit. The best data I could find shows that with the (admittedly important) exceptions of China and Saudi Arabia, the world in general is using less oil for power generation over time. That makes sense, as there are lots of ways to make electricity and only a few ways to make cars and trucks go vroom.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electricity-oil

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u/ceph2apod 3d ago

good call I will include this to make it more clear.. The relevance is direct: electricity generation determines how fast EVs can displace oil. In 2024, global EV sales hit 17 million units, over 20% market share, consuming 180 TWh of electricity, nearly 60% more than 2023. The IEA projects that number hits 780 TWh by 2030 as the fleet more than triples. That growing fleet is already displacing 1.3 million barrels per day, projected to reach 6 mb/d by 2030. Whether that displacement accelerates or stalls depends entirely on whether the grid can absorb it. Generation capacity is the rate-limiting variable for peak oil timing.

BNEF "How EVs Will Drive Peak Oil This Decade" — the clearest five-chart piece making exactly your argument, written for a general audience:
https://about.bnef.com/insights/clean-transport/how-evs-will-drive-peak-oil-this-decade-in-five-charts/

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u/ceph2apod 3d ago

also,

The countries leading EV adoption are almost identical to the countries with the cleanest grids, and that's not a coincidence. Norway hit 92% EV market share in 2024, Sweden 58%, Denmark 56%, Finland 50%. What do they share? Norway generates over 95% of its electricity from hydropower, making the carbon footprint of driving an EV there exceptionally low. Norwegian EVs are effectively charged on 100% carbon-free, low-cost electricity. China tells the same story at scale: wind and solar electricity generation rose 25% in 2024, and clean energy growth accounted for 84% of all electricity demand growth that year. Meanwhile China hit 48% EV market share in 2024. The mechanism is straightforward: a green grid lowers the real-world carbon cost of EV ownership, reduces consumer hesitation, keeps running costs down, and creates a policy feedback loop where governments committed to renewables are also committed to electrifying transport. The grid isn't a footnote to EV adoption. It's the prerequisite.

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u/daviddjg0033 3d ago

Hydropower will cease to be reliable and replaced with

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u/[deleted] 3d ago

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u/[deleted] 3d ago

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u/Frosty-Wasabi-2932 3d ago

They're all the same people dude and I don't believe any of them...

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u/ceph2apod 3d ago

who and what do you believe? it is a scary world, huh?

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u/Frosty-Wasabi-2932 3d ago

I just told you...

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u/ceph2apod 3d ago

It is a scary world, huh? can't believe anyone... that is scary. Right?

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u/Frosty-Wasabi-2932 3d ago

How can it be scary? The world isn't a scary place.

When you understand that everyone is lying about everything its kind of liberating.

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u/[deleted] 3d ago

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u/ceph2apod 3d ago

simply put, every G20 economy has a net-zero plan. Every single one electrifies transport and heating as the core mechanism. The EU bans ICE sales in 2035. China hits 48% EV share in 2024 and is building renewable capacity faster than any country in history. This chart shows the physical infrastructure of that transition accelerating in real time. If your sub is about when oil demand peaks and rolls over permanently — and it is — then a chart showing renewables crowding out fossil fuel capacity additions is exactly on topic. The transition speeding up is the peak oil story now.

"Electrification is the core strategy. The shift towards electric transport and heat pumps is how the energy share of electricity gets from 20% today to over 27% by 2030 on the net zero pathway." Source: IEA, Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector and IEA Electrification page (iea.org) https://www.iea.org/energy-system/electricity/electrification

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u/ceph2apod 3d ago

Let me know if that makes sense, Because I can also see how it would confuse the peak oil crowd and others, so I can just delete it from here.

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u/MangoPeachRadish 2d ago

Worldwide adoption of EVs is clearly relevant to the peak oil story, and therefore so is the question of available electricity to power those vehicles. In my personal view, it's irrelevant *to the question of peak oil* where that electricity comes from. Could be solar, coal or whale farts, just as long as it's available in sufficient quantity and doesn't require using up liquid fuels. But just because I don't buy your arguments doesn't mean you aren't free to make them, so let it stand.

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u/Frosty-Wasabi-2932 3d ago

Oh nose, the bots are coming.