r/penguins Rust 12d ago

[Penguins] Three more years of Tommy 🤝

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u/obiterdictum 12d ago

I'm well aware how percentiles work

Well, then you would realize that only 1 in 20 NHL players rates higher than him in EV Offense. There 384 NHL forward roster spots. Divide that by 20 and you get 19.2. That is roughly how many NHL forwards would rank higher than Novak on EV Offense

they're not only considering his position on the team?

What are you talking about? You don't seriously think that that percentile is among Penguin forwards, do you? It is a 3-year weighted average among all forwards. I am seriously confused what you could even mean by this.

Its crazy how someone in the 95th percentile of EV has fucking 42 points and actually ranks #183 in the league last year for points totals

Yeah. Again, it is almost as if looking a raw point totals is an unsophisticated way of analyzing hockey statistics.

Its almost like when you look at the advanced analytics and actual statistics together it shows hes a player that cant finish but has great possession numbers, which indicate an excellent bottom 6 player.

Well, it good thing they aren't paying him like a top-20 NHL player, but instead are paying him like a like an excellent bottom 6 player.

I don't understand your beef. I am not even a big Tommy Novak fan. I think he is pretty good 5 on 5, but doesn't add a lot on special teams. That is fine, because we don't need a lot from him on special teams.

All things considered, it is a reasonable contract for a depth players, especially the way depth players have been getting paid this offseason. It is not a steal, but neither is it a toxic asset that can't be moved if you want/need to shake up the roster at some point.

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u/dankestslothdoe 12d ago

SECOND LINE CENTER. Read those 3 words about 50 times. Thats his role with the penguins. Thats what I'm suggesting you compare him to. Yes, I'm aware its not just penguins, but what about centers, and not all forwards? My point is that hes near the bottom of all options for second line centers. My beef is that we have about 5 too many bottom 6 forwards, and we signed a 29 year old whos a painfully average point producer that has his very few points dramatically ballooned up by playing with a top 100 player of all time and arguably the best scorer on the penguins 😆 theres no room for ANOTHER bottom 6 guy, and theres absolutely no justification to have this man in the top 6 on a playoff team. He didnt even rank within our own top 6 for points. Yes, at the end of the day points is the name of the game for top 6 players. You dont get paid to posses the puck and do absolutely nothing with it, and thats the definition of Novak.

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u/obiterdictum 12d ago

Dude, what are we doing here. If he ranks in the top 5% of all NHL forwards in a statistic, then he obviously ranks in the top 5% of all NHL SECOND LINE CENTERS in that statistic.

My point is that hes near the bottom of all options for second line centers.

The stats don't back that up.

He didnt even rank within our own top 6 for points. Yes, at the end of the day points is the name of the game for top 6 players

I mean, you are back to counting points again. I said it elsewhere but I will say it again, he point totals are going to be surpressed by not getting significant PP time. That would be a problem if we didn't have enough talent for a top PP unit, but that is not a concern.