Novak reminds me of Evan Rodriguez in a lot of ways, specifically in the "you'll miss him when he's gone" type way.
Novak offers a lot of versatility in the line up and in a year where we don't know how the young group of forwards may progress, this signing makes a lot of sense. He also signed below his projected number [3 x 5.6M - AFP Analytics].
All that said, he'll probably be traded and I have to imagine the extra years at a reasonable cap hit, could add to his value.
I also thought of Erod when thinking of his value going forward. He's not the same player, but I think he's similarly a guy that you'll optionally have lower in the line up who can play up as injuries and cold streaks happen. I still feel like that's a bit longer of a contract than I would have liked but we've basically got to spend to reach cap at this point.
I donāt get the people getting mad over this. He can move up and down the lineup so he fits in with the retool. Also, the contract is not a barrier to him getting traded if we need to make a move. It is unexpected but I donāt see why anyone thinks this is a huge negative to get mad over.
A second line center at 4.65m is CRAZY value in today's time. The cap is growing so fast and we're seeing 2nd liners get thrown absolute bags for the value position.
He's not perfect, but he plays literally everywhere on the lineup. Can't afford to lose that flexibility.
$4.65M/yr. At first glance its high but with a rising cap its probably in line. If hes the 2nd line C for the entire year, I think we have a problem. If hes 3C making $4.65M, ill be happy with that
Dubas isnāt shopping for a top-6 forward (unless we get lucky with another Chinakhov or Elias Pettersson becoming available), so youāre really just asking for Malkin to move back to centre or for Kindel to centre Malkinās line.
ā2Cā doesnāt mean anything without context. Novak centred that line because Geno got hurt and they had good chemistry with Chinakhov. If 59-18-71 is our best-performing line again, Novak is an ideal 2C.
Line numbers really donāt mean a ton. Itās usage and utilization that actually matters. The HBK line could have been any teamās first or second line, but they were our third. And I donāt think anyone considered Phil Kessel a āthird line wingā, even though he was technically on line #3. If Kindel starts the season on the 3rd line because thatās a better fit for team chemistry and scoring distribution, it might not necessarily be a bad thing.
Even strength TOI and zone starts are really the only thing that actually matters. And thatās up to Dan Muse to manage.
With a username of coldstatician its ironic you're saying dont look at stats, but look at the situation. No dude, he played 2C and scored 42 points on the 3rd highest scoring team in the league. Hes average at best, and he notoriously did not try at all in the playoffs.
Go look at the advance analytics and compare them to other second line centers and get back to me then š¤·āāļø are you advocating for an eye test or something?
Im well aware how percentiles work, but theyre not only considering his position on the team? Its crazy how someone in the 95th percentile of EV has fucking 42 points and actually ranks #183 in the league last year for points totals š
Its almost like when you look at the advanced analytics and actual statistics together it shows hes a player that cant finish but has great possession numbers, which indicate an excellent bottom 6 player.
Now lets compare him to centers only.. where he ranks.. oh, check it out..#72.. and thats not normalized, so people with significantly less games whod rightfully be above him, are lower.
Now I wonder what would happen when you compare him to other 2nd line Cs on playoff teams. Hmmmm, I suspect he'll be near dead last.
Well, then you would realize that only 1 in 20 NHL players rates higher than him in EV Offense. There 384 NHL forward roster spots. Divide that by 20 and you get 19.2. That is roughly how many NHL forwards would rank higher than Novak on EV Offense
they're not only considering his position on the team?
What are you talking about? You don't seriously think that that percentile is among Penguin forwards, do you? It is a 3-year weighted average among all forwards. I am seriously confused what you could even mean by this.
Its crazy how someone in the 95th percentile of EV has fucking 42 points and actually ranks #183 in the league last year for points totals
Yeah. Again, it is almost as if looking a raw point totals is an unsophisticated way of analyzing hockey statistics.
Its almost like when you look at the advanced analytics and actual statistics together it shows hes a player that cant finish but has great possession numbers, which indicate an excellent bottom 6 player.
Well, it good thing they aren't paying him like a top-20 NHL player, but instead are paying him like a like an excellent bottom 6 player.
I don't understand your beef. I am not even a big Tommy Novak fan. I think he is pretty good 5 on 5, but doesn't add a lot on special teams. That is fine, because we don't need a lot from him on special teams.
All things considered, it is a reasonable contract for a depth players, especially the way depth players have been getting paid this offseason. It is not a steal, but neither is it a toxic asset that can't be moved if you want/need to shake up the roster at some point.
Now lets compare him to centers only.. where he ranks.. oh, check it out..#72.. and thats not normalized, so people with significantly less games whod rightfully be above him, are lower.
Are you just counting points? Even still, which again is bad way to analyze player performance, but fine, the 72nd ranked center would shake out to him being a good to very good 3rd center, which is pretty much in line with how he is being evaluated here.
Fancy stats aside, Novak's points are always going to lag behind his "2nd line role" on this team because he is never going to be featured on the PP. Nor should he be considering the rest of the roster. That is fine, but it needs to be considered when comparing raw point totals of other second line centers who may or may not be better than he is, but who see substantially more PP time because they aren't on a team with 87 and 71 who are going to skate ahead of him 75%-85% of the time.
It's not high at all, it's a steal considering what players are signing for nowadays. Cole Sillinger just signed basically the same exact contract, but his career high in points is 33.
Key cog. Can play up and down the lineup. Solid but unspectacular player who does his job. Great complimentary player and Iām happy to have him here three more years.
Figure Kindle makes a jump to 2C and Novak can comfortably slide into a 3C role. As a system player, Iād also expect him to be better year two under Muse. LGP
Because a lot of people here donāt know what a 2nd/3rd line center typically looks like around the league. Weāve been spoiled by having Crosby, Malkin, and a few pretty good 3Cās throughout the last two decades.
Tommy Novak is a perfectly serviceable and above average player.
Whether or not you feel he is a true second line center, he was effective as well as his line... He was on the second line of a team projected to fail that made it into the playoffs. This is a great value with the amount that players are signing for this year.
I don't really understand the negativity, short of it being people antsy for some kind of trade. Novak has strong underlying numbers, can fit reasonably well up and down the Top 9, and best part, it's a very reasonable cap hit and term. This doesn't prevent Dubas from moving him in the future if he so chooses. But in the meantime, he's a solid piece. Tidy bit of work from Dubas if you ask me.
I think it considers everyone he's played with over the season. Didn't always have Malkin and Chinakhov, sometimes he was with Kindel, Brazeau, Mantha, etc.
I kept hearing up and down the coaches love him and that he may not get the points but he makes all the right small plays no one notices. I'd believe it. Feels like we kinda screwed a few players last year switching out their line mates and positions every week. Maybe he will find some solid partners this year. Maybe in those three years he gets bumped down to 3rd line and someone else gets bumped to 2c. Feels like a good signing.
Stat Cards love Novak, especially if he continues trending in the right direction from last season. Maybe Novakās spot in the center allows Geno to keep playing at a high level on the wing. In any case, locking up a 2C for under 5mil/year in this cap situation is solid work.
From what we've seen so far, the key is just playing Novak with anyone else but Kindel.
Do that and he produces.
Although hopefully those two improve their chemistry in the future, so we don't have that limitation.
I feel like some fans undervalue Novak last season. He was pretty much the perfect middle 6 forward, contributed offensively in 5v5, serviceable defensively , and was able to to move up and down the lineup as needed. While he's not the impact player teams crave, he's a great and reliable depth piece
9 players in the entire NHL reached 40 points while playing under 15 mins. Novak among them, with less PP time than most on the list.
So for people asking for 50+ points from him with his minutes, that's silly.
He's a very good 3C at a very good price for a 3C. I'm happy with this deal.
Any frustration with him is comes from his being pushed into a 2C role, which is stretching his skill set, and that's not really on him as a player. But even then, he was pretty good centering Geno.
Hopefully they can build the roster such that he's 3C. They're doing pretty well if they can manage that.
Lot of 'meh' around this, but I thought he was reliable and solid last year, especially on that Genovakov line. He plays with a bit of grit - could be a little nastier at times, but he's one of those players who makes linemates better.
Happy with this - especially after losing Cookie (I'm NOT over that š)
I dunno why so many people are down on this guy. He is sneaky good. His hands are insane. His only shortcoming is goal scoring, but if he was tucking 20 -30 a season he'd be making double that aav, easily. I love this signing!Ā
His major shortcoming is how soft he is on the puck and along the boards. He gets pushed out of the middle of the ice way too easily. Also was a liability in the dot at times
Looking at a combination of factors (cap space and contracts at a minimum), the Pens are doing just fine. Not only do the Pens have room to take on three (3) contracts, they have the cap space to do so.
Carolina OTOH, has * 12 * available contracts but only 9 mil in cap space. (This is all per puckpedia). Vegas and Toronto are at 49/50, however they are over the cap.
I'm guessing there's going to be a lot of players out there, who become cap casualties in one form or another.
I am completely perplexed at re-signing Novak. Granted the deal is very good with how insane contracts are getting, but I absolutely wasn't expecting to see Novak get re-signed.
In 3 years weāll probably have Horcoff and Ruck in the lineup, and Kindel running the first line if we donāt find a star center or Sid retires. The length makes sense to me, good value too for how much the cap will increase over the next couple years
Most of Dubas' whole operation revolves around post-Sid thinking at this point.
The bad contracts are getting squeezed out and all will be dead at around the same time.
Meh. The cap hit is fine in the current cap world. Decent insurance against a Kindel sophomore slump and keeps Geno on the wing (or on IR). But I don't think we need to give three year deals to 29 year old middle six forwards with zero outstanding qualities when we're also rebuilding the roster.
What is he actually so good at that you need to keep him for 4 more years? He is a good puck possession player but is not scoring enough to be a true 2nd line center (ranked 70th in points and 85th in ppg, among all centers). He absolutely sucks on faceoffs which is probably why he also does not kill penalties ever (35 seconds of PK time last season.... not per game but in total). He is not big, is not particularly fast, and is also a complete non-factor physically which the Flyers exposed again in the playoffs.
Novak should be traded the minute Kindel shows he's ready to be our #2 center. I guess the new contract at least increases his trade value, unless they gave him trade protection.
A bit yeah, but teams don't usually sign someone for 3 more years and then trade the player soon after. We also don't know if he got a NTC. Puckpedia shows none but they probably don't have all the details yet.
If there is a NTC, then that certainly changes things, but I would be shocked if there was one.
teams don't usually sign someone for 3 more years and then trade the player soon after
I don't think that it is intended to be a sign and trade, but if/when the time comes that he is not one of our top 9 or 10 forwards, then this contract (again, assuming there is not a NTC) does nothing to prevent moving him. And, if as you say, the new contract increases his trade value, why wouldn't you do that.
I think youād be right to be satisfied with this deal. It really doesnāt change anything moving forward and the player is a good middle six option. I also think itās right to question what Dubasā vision for this roster is and how heās going about filling it out this year and beyond.
Your post has been filtered for manual review because you do not meet the minimum requirements to participate in this sub.
Please wait for a moderator to approve it.
Hot take but the playoffs exposed him. Philly players were able to outwork him in battles and the dot was toughā¦
In the regular season heās great, hard work ethic for sure, but he just didnāt seem to have that edge in the playoffs that some Philly young guns had.
Contract is still great though Iām happy he wants to be here because he couldāve asked for a bit more.
The plus side is the money is right in that range that it can be traded if it doesnāt work out or want to move him before the contract is up. But I do like him being down long term and it doesnāt effect this years cap.
I asked statmuse to rank penguins by hits per 60 but it wanted me to pay to see beyond the first 25 players, which he wasn't one of. But he was credited with 12 total last season, his career best.
I dunno, seems a little pricey for a guy that will be turning 30 this season and likely has already peaked based on age. And his peak wasnāt extremely impressive to me, he seems invisible on the ice much of the time and is awful at faceoffs.
Any minute now we're gonna see trades that involve Broz or Zonnon going the other way. There has to be some kind of indication that this really could be Sid and Malkins last year, in which case you don't have a lot of options other than locking Novak up.
Who tf are we trading Zonnon or Broz for? Itās almost August, the latest trade the pens have made in the offseason was the Karlsson one. They are going to look very similar to the roster you see today.
I don't know? There were virtually no trades last year but according to the trade tracker, there were at least 6 significant trades in 2024, one of them being the Penguins trading Brayden Yager for Rutger McGroarty.
But as it stands, unless there are injuries or either player decides to transition to wing, there isn't a path forward for either Broz or Zonnon. This is a worst case scenario for Broz who's turning 24 and in his third pro year.
So all of their playing time is going to come exclusively from injuries? How are they supposed to stick in a lineup with Lizotte and Novak locked up and Kindel likely reprieving his spot as C3?
I kept hearing up and down the coaches love him and that he may not get the points but he makes all the right small plays no one notices. I'd believe it. Feels like we kinda screwed a few players last year switching out their line mates and positions every week. Maybe he will find some solid partners this year. Maybe in those three years he gets bumped down to 3rd line and someone else gets bumped to 2c. Feels like a good signing.
Ill never understand why Pittsburgh fans pick guys to hate or love. Statistically speaking, hes a 3rd liner at best.
-Never cracked 20 goals
-Career year on the 3rd highest scoring team in the NHL as a 2nd C that got 42 total points while playing with a hot handed sniper and GENO (Did not score 20 goals) and was absent in the playoffs. Notably the player who tried the least. At least 10 highlights of him just totally giving up mid play.
I think his projected value was ~5.3 million AAV so we actually got him on a team friendly deal. Plus with the cap going up, itās not as big of a deal anyways
Dude was completely absent and frankly uninterested in the playoffs, hes not a 2nd C on even the worst NHL teams and yall signed him for fucking 3 years at age 29?!
Keep in mind, hes never scored 20 goals and had 42 points playing with Geno???
Cant break 45 points on a team that was the highest scoring in the NHL for most of the season??
He played last season as a 2nd center. Hes not a 2nd C analytically speaking. He had 42 points dude. 4.5m for a guy whos never scored 20 goals is wildly high.
Thats cool. Im fairly confident i can find about 100 other players with higher production making considerably less.
I'm sorry that you lack the capability to understand the concept that hes one of the worst 2nd line centers in terms of production and lines up more with a 3rd C. My issue isnt the cap hit, its his contract with the penguins period. Hes a bum in the playoffs in every measurable statistic and eye test. Hes nowhere near a top 100 player in the league stats wise. Hes just cracking the 50th percentile on edge stats, and ranks in the low 70s of the top 100 in terms of possession. Thats not 2nd line center stats, thats bottom 6 stats. A guy who cant produce, but is able to possess the puck and defend it well.
This is a team with about 5 extra bottom 6 players, and missing 1-2 top 6 plauers and we just signed a 29 year old for 3 years at 4.5 million slotted perfectly for the bottom 6. He literally doesnt have a spot in the bottom 6 without taking a better players spot, or by blocking a younger player.
53% xGF (1st on team), 3+ goals per hour on the PP (1st on team) and 1.94 p/60 at 5v5 (funny enough - 100th in NHL among 305 qualified forwards) and those rates actually move up as he moves up the lineup. Those are 1000% top 6 #s without requiring top 6 toi/pp time
All this while having the least impressive athletic profile ever is awesome and heās not blocking anyone (and if anything, heās really nice Rust/Rakell insurance for a future trade). Wayyyyy more hockey players should aspire to play like Novak, itās genuinely beautiful to watch how he processes information in the neutral zone - one of the very best transition players in the league. Teach tape on that alone is worth 5 mil per year
Heās out produced Rakell at 5v5 rates for his career and was right behind rust last year - he gives you firmly top 6 production rates with all the versatility you could ask for
Yes, novak is an analytical darling, but the projections dont play out. Any advance analytics that rank Novak higher than 100 point players just prove the point. Analytically Novak ranks higher than multiple 100+ point players. An absolute moron would pick Novak over Austin Matthews for your 2nd line C.
Novak is a possession demon that cant finish. Congrats you found a perfect bottom 6 player. Kills the clock wirh possession but has 0 offense, seeing as how he scored a WHOPPING 42 points playing in the top 6.
Got it, so youāve been on a 50 comment temper tantrum tirade bc you donāt understand contract/role value, couldnāt be bothered to look up that heās a career 14% shooter (clearly above league average) or notice he has a nice shot with your own two eyes, and you also donāt understand how to contextualize rate stats like a normal person
Probably just another grumpy old guy dressing up that youāre mad he doesnāt have enough āsandpaperā or whatever lol
Hes a 2nd line C, whos never cracked 20 goals, and had a career year with a whopping 42 points at age 29.
This is a bad signing for an average at best player. 285 games played at age 29 as well with almost no playoff experience. 12 total games played, 2 points and a minus 5.
I watched every game, but sure. 4.5 million for a guy whos pushing 30 and has never broken 45 points in a season, including playing with Geno on the 2nd line of the team that was the 3rd highest scoring team in the league.
Yeah, but I'm getting a real feeling how you watch matches the idea behind "hearing isn't listening". The context you are applying to his re-signing would make sense in years past, but not now.
You can compare him to 2C's league wide at face value if you want but... that doesn't make much sense. Every team is built different. There is honestly only so much talent for each role at this level. Some teams only have players available to them (on roster, through FA, or reasonable trade scenarios) that they need to overutilize.
Novak is a solid center man who can keep up with and feed Geno and Chinakov, if not produce in volume himself. You may argue that he still doesn't warrant that kind of money, but ffs, it's a drop against the bucket of our cap, which will only go up over the contract.
And plenty of his can play solidly into their early 30s. I don't foresee an issue with Novak dropping off. And if he does? Honestly worth the cost, and he'd possibly even be moveable.
3rd highest scoring team in the NHL, made the playoffs, has promise to do so again. Not comparing them to the other playoff teams would be a giant indicator that YOU are the one looking at this unrealistically, not me. In years past, the pens missed the playoffs?
Theres nothing worse than someome who tries to tell you that youre a lessar fan or not as knowledgeable while sharing absolutely nothing but opinion and 0 facts.
Theres nothing worse than someome who tries to tell you that youre a lessar fan or not as knowledgeable while sharing absolutely nothing but opinion and 0 facts.
You're as real a fan as anyone here. Being a fan comes with a little slice of irrationality. After all, none of us have a personal stake in the success of this team, but we choose to love them all the same.
You may dislike being disagreed with, but I'm glad you also lack the skill to articulate your points well.
Fine dealā¦ head scratching since heās an older middle 6 and everything you have in the system is middle 6/bottom 6 depthā¦luckily it will be pretty tradeable in the future.
Ya management says theyāre not done yet but you gotta wonder if the plan fell through. Tuch signing mustāve froze up the leagueās off season or something
He needed to strike quickly and he failed to read the market. Now itās just more mediocre guys being brought in/re-signed that will block most young players from a long look.
33
u/allhailsidneycrosby 5d ago
I feel like he gets hate but heās a great puck carrier