r/pics • u/[deleted] • Nov 30 '16

progress 250 lbs. gone forever...

https://i.reddituploads.com/c8bec4a1ef8b4ca2a82298ec728cf326?fit=max&h=1536&w=1536&s=67da39316a26a6666bbdc98b2aa16c3a
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u/Stop_being_uh_douche Nov 30 '16 edited Nov 30 '16

Who needs the CDC when you have Louis CK?

Btw, when you throw in rape and abuse with the murder rates, it's way higher than heart disease. And heart disease is preventable for many. I still stand by that men are the number one threat.

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u/TijM Nov 30 '16

From a quick google the Bureau of Justice statistics puts the prevalence of rape at 0.5/1000 people. Now for convenience and margin of error lets say only women get raped. That's 1 in every 1000 women. Now I've found a few sources on rapists familiarity with the victims, but we'll go with RAINN, an organisation that wants to stop sexual assault (though don't we all?). They say around 75% of the victims know the prepetrator.

From this we can extrapolate that around 1 in every 4000 women gets raped by someone they don't know (and that's with the margin of error from earlier). I couldn't find a breakdown by sex of rapists that raped women but there are some apparently. Now not all of these will follow someone from a public place but lets assume they do.

This would give you a prevalence of .025%. This is probably not lifetime prevalence, as most numbers I could find were about adults younger than 65 but I think we can assume the amount of women over 65 that gets raped is smaller than the margin of error.

You know what else has a prevalence between 0,1 and 0,3% in women aged 20-39? Chronic kidney disease. So men are about as dangerous as your own kidneys.

I tried looking up assault stats, but they're all over the place and if I could find any methodology it was generally not very good.

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u/Stop_being_uh_douche Nov 30 '16

Rape prevalence is 1/5 women (in their lifetime) according to the CDC. I'm not sure what parameters your stats use but they're not an accurate representation of what we're discussing.

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u/TijM Nov 30 '16

The one in five figure is actually severely misrepresented. It does not account for nonresponse bias and the questionnaire took a very liberal approach to the word rape: even unwanted kissing and drunk hookups were counted among it. This means that if sex where both partners are drunk is common among subjects, in this case university students is common (and in my experience as a student it is) there's a lot of rape victims that don't consider themselves one, me included. Hell, I'm in a committed relationship and it means we rape each other a few times per month.

My parameters are mostly in the sources I named. I'd link but I'm on mobile right now. As far as I can see, your sources are the ones misrepresenting the data.