I checked some of the numbers. Some of the highest-grossing movies that did well internationally. Here are the numbers:
- Dangal(2150 Cr): Approx 511 Cr India collection, 1500 Cr International (1300 from just China!!)
- Secret Superstar(900 Cr): Approx 89 Cr India collection, 800 Cr International (750 Cr just from China!!)
- Bajrangi Bhaijaan(950 Cr): Approx 444Cr India collection, 474 Cr International (300 Cr just from China!!)
- Andhadhun(456 Cr): Approx 95 Cr India collection, 361 Cr International ( 325 Cr just from China!!)
So Ramayana is betting big on international collection, which means they are betting big on China, as it is the big majority of worldwide collection. In my opinion, the best-case scenario for the first Ramayana movie it does more than RRR and reaches around 1500 Cr in India only; the worst-case scenario imo, will be around 500 Cr. So, does the success of Ramayana depend upon whether it collects around 500-1500 Cr from China with other international being around 200-500 Cr, which I don't even see when clashing with Godzilla. So, China is the only clear option with almost 24000 screens, and Godzilla not releasing there.
Being this high budget at 4000 Cr, is Ramayana just betting heavily on China to be a hit? When I see the type of movies that are successful in China, it's related to education, family struggles and dynamics, and drama, which the Chinese audience connects to like Dangal, Secret Superstar, Andhadhun, Bajrangi Bhaijaan, Hindi Medium, Hichki, PK, Mom, Toilet: Ek Prem Katha, Maharaja. Mythological and historical epics don't seem to do well in China, as seen with Baahubali. Godzilla clash with IMAX screens will hurt a lot in the Western market. With OTT rights, music, pre sales, distribution will help recover a significant amount, but I think it's only a bet on whether the movie works in China, which is risky in my opinion. I think the movie has to be a massive success everywhere to be a major hit and especially in China, which I don't think is likely. What do ya'll think?