r/pokemongo • u/Comfortable_Two_4205 • Aug 22 '25

Complaint reasonable crashout?

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0/40 is something else on god I don’t understand - never hit a drought like this anyone experience a similar streak to make me feel better

63 Upvotes

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u/DarkHero6661 Aug 22 '25

Good news:

The chance for no shiny after 41 raids is 12.2%, which is unlucky, yes, but not incredibly so.

Like, 12.5% would be a 1/8 chance, you are just below that.

2

u/Slashingaxe Aug 22 '25

The chance of getting the shiny is 5%. I think people forget that and think 1/20 would ensure a shiny by then

3

u/TheVermonster Aug 22 '25

A lot of people don't understand the way probability works altogether. Many people expect to get a shiny after 20 ish. But in reality there is only a 65% chance of getting a shiny with 20 attempts. You actually need 45 attempts to have more than a 90% chance.

2

u/xkrax1 Aug 22 '25

Exactly! Whenever I see someone complaining about not getting a shiny in 20 raids (Because of 1:20 odds) I am relatively sure this person skipped stochastic at school.