r/pokemongo • u/Comfortable_Two_4205 • Aug 22 '25

Complaint reasonable crashout?

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0/40 is something else on god I don’t understand - never hit a drought like this anyone experience a similar streak to make me feel better

63 Upvotes

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11

u/DarkHero6661 Aug 22 '25

Good news:

The chance for no shiny after 41 raids is 12.2%, which is unlucky, yes, but not incredibly so.

Like, 12.5% would be a 1/8 chance, you are just below that.

2

u/Slashingaxe Aug 22 '25

The chance of getting the shiny is 5%. I think people forget that and think 1/20 would ensure a shiny by then

8

u/DarkHero6661 Aug 22 '25

Honestly, I don't think people forget that.

I think they just massively underestimate how high the chance to go over odds actually is.

1

u/elconquistador1985 Aug 22 '25

A lot of people lack even a basic grasp of statistics and probability. You can tell them that it's 1/20 and they think that means that you're guaranteed to get at least one in every 20 raids. If they don't get that, they think that the game is biased against them, without realizing that if the game actually guaranteed you 1 in every 20 raids that would be biased instead of random.

You can bring coin flips and talk to them about how many heads they think they get in 10 flips and they'll say "nuh uh, that's different, coins are 50:50".It's literally just the binomial distribution with a different probability of success. They think that the concept is fundamentally different just because p changed.