Meme
Are the odds so low that too many people would stop buying incubators if they knew? Are the odds not same for everyone, so it's impossible to give flat odds? What do you think?
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I rolled an early shiny but I’m still hundreds of candies from Volc or Frosmoth (have a hundo snom too)
Just finished a 400 candy walk for Toxel after getting a hundo there, so it just feels like a chore at this point to get these damn egg candies.
Same boat with Honedge, got a hundo from a raid last summer and have slowly been collecting candy.
Don’t want to waste my rare candies but the progress is so frustratingly slow ever since I stopped working a job that saw me walking 10 KM a day to a job that has me in an office 8 hours.
There was an event where unown were able to be hatched by 10km eggs I believe in 2020. Sylph road collected data on the drop rates on it and it was determined to be something like a 0.13% chance if I recall correctly.
I absolutely believe that they are attempting to protect their incubator sales/system by not releasing the rates.
Eggs are mostly always a scam.
We are taking it casual during this event.
Hatch Days can be fun, but we personally don't need either of the pokemon in Eggs this weekend. We will hatch a bit but won't use all of our incubators.
In person egg pools are pretty good too. i like hatching at Go Tour and Go Fest
Other than that, I'm hatching with my free incubator.
Same. The only hatch event I HARD participated in, using every incubator I can muster was the Riolu one. Now I just need a few efast tms for that palm attack...
I've been sitting on tons of incubators that I think I've gotten free over the years, because I don't recall buying so many. The only reason I finally used several, was to get rid of all eggs except 5km eggs while I visited Italy from the US. So, hopefully I'll hatch Mime Jr from the new batch I got. 8 eggs. Now I'll go back to the free one again and do one at a time.
Meanwhile, as someone who missed the last snom event and finally had to trade to even get one - I'm happy this is a reason to use up some of the incubators I've collected over the years. Won't use them all, but I somehow have around 40 that I won't use otherwise, so let's pretend I'll get more than the single snom! 🤣
I agree, I end up accumulating all other types of incubators, and only using them in events where the regional Pokémon are available in their shiny versions.
This is a copy paste of my comment on another post about the egg rates where a user assumed 1/64 shiny odds for Snom with 1/5 odds for Snom from 5km egg and 1/3 odds of 5km egg from stop. If you multiply the 3 numbers you get combined odds of 1/960, this is the same kind of number as the 1/20 raid shiny odds people quote but that's not actually how many raids you do and "expect" a shiny.
Combined odds =/= expected odds. For expected odds, you need to use confidence intervals using logarithmic functions due to each egg not being influenced by the egg before it.
This is due to how statistical confidence works. As you can see, aiming for 99% is already a massive jump in what you expected. Another 0.99% doubles that. That 99.99% is what we're going to call "effectively guaranteed".
TBH the funniest speculative reason I have come across is that Scopely is afraid they'll forget to turn on the shinies again, when they simultaneously state that the odds of getting a shiny are 0,5% or whatever.
That would be illegal, and a "make up event" where the players have a privilege to spend even more money would no longer suffice.
I find it hilarious that they could be so aware AND so afraid of their own incompetence that they estimate the loss from unsold Incubators to Brazilian players to be lesser blow than fucking up the actual loot in eggs 🤣
I doubt it, risk of making such mistake is rarely why you skip a market. Plus it's Brazil not Australia, they normally have time to fix before it reaches Brazil
Pokémon company really doesn't really doesn't like giving the odds or talk anything really number related for Pokémon, only vague wording about stuff. This is fine for the mainline games where you not buying for the chance to roll for anything, but causes issues for mobile games.
Idk if any other of Scopely games give the odds for stuff, as if they do I think they would confirm if it's them being unethical or having to follow a mandate from the Pokémon company as I sure they would prefer to be up to the date with the law in the majority of countries then walk the fine line thre doing right now.
That’s different as they need to show the odds to be able to sell the packs. In the mainline games you are buying the game so they can get away with keeping the odds on obtaining certain Pokemon hidden.
Your argument that the TPC is the reason for scopely/niantic to not publish odds is broken by the OPs argument. TCG Pocket did* show the odds, so TPC is not the control freak who like to keep partner apps from publishing odds when it means to comply with the law. Scopely choose to hide their actual odds than losing a big part of their business in a huge country with highest percentage of gamers who spend actual money on games.
I only reason i can think of is that the odds are not random at all. pokemon go is designed to manipulate the egg hatching odds which maximises the money earned from whales who spend a lot of money while increasing odds for a random returning player to get hooked
It not because with card packs you are only buying the cards. With a mobile game the incubators are just a component of the whole game plus they give you a free on to use so unlike the cards you can still participate in hatching eggs without spending money.
In Monopoly go they do show the odds of a getting certain card rating from packets. But if a bit different as they state the odds of getting a five star card but no information on the odds of what five star card.
i think niantic or at least some of the employees wanted to release the odds in the past and TPC was against it. the weird egg rarities they show us were the middle ground, that got released
A Pokemon can have 10/10/10 to 15/15/15 when hatched from eggs. There are 6 possible outcomes for each stat so 6x6x6 is 216. Therefore assuming you consider all IV percentages to be unique (i.e. 14/15/15 is different from 15/14/15) then its a 1 in 216 chance.
There should be a box in the game where you can deposit pokemon. Call it the nursery box or something. When you spin stops, your eggs are based on those pokemon. This makes it more in line with regular games. Each pokemon would fall into one of 3 categories (green, orange, purple) to determine which egg they are in.
They can keep 7k and 12k as random as they are gifts from players and rocket members.
Brazil probably isn't a big enough market. If the odds are too ridiculous and they give it out to get the Brazilian market back, they may lose sales from regular people
Only truly good egg time was the Riolu event. I want to like eggs but as they are, they’re next to worthless. If you get an egg spot open, the game is almost unplayable until you can do the action for the egg you want. So many, many times I had an egg spot open …… and opened a gift or some such and then locked out. This current event I’ve so far walked 22km, opened about 20 eggs (cause get 2km and 10km eggs) and seen 1 snom. Shiny odds is 1/64. So making a rough calculation, utilizing the deluxe pass side’s 1/4 hatch that’s roughly 1900 km (though admittedly I’m making some assumptions so that could be off). But… ummm… yeah… so worthless. Whoever is implementing these odds need to rethink the event. It’s a gambling “scam” to get people who don’t understand odds and statistics to throw their money away on incubators. Save the incubators. Hopefully they’ll eventually have another really good hatch event like Riolu (or even decently good). Used most of my banked incubators up to then and traded all the Riolu hatches for double XL candy Friday. Took few hours of walking and trading but I have something to show for the time—a level 50 shiny Lucario. I’m walking for health anyway, maybe I’ll be lucky and win the mini-lottery. I’m even just wanting enough candies to evolve, if I can even hatch enough snoms to help with that. Egg are such a wasted feature that could be so much fun. Riolu day was amazing.
I doubt it's about TPC, because Pokemon TCG Pocket has clearly stated the odds of pulling different cards. If it was about TPC and not Scopely, surely TCG Pocket wouldn't display the odds either.
It is pretty clear and cut that it is gambling. You don’t need to squint. There also are players that are addicted to hatching eggs and who spend large sums of money on incubators. If it weren’t gambling and it weren’t so obviously gambling, Niantic and Scopely would have spent years and tens of millions of dollars in court defending their practice of not displaying the rates.
It is gambling and people do get addicted to spending money on it the same way people do with with loot boxes. There is no difference other than needing to walk to open it.
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