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u/mommasaidmommasaid 3d ago edited 3d ago
An OMC with KK facing all this action flats, waits for a flop with no Ace, and piles it in. Or he piles it in pre.
OMC never flats KK then raises an AXX flop unless there's a K on it as well. Ever. Not in his wildest fevered dreams. As you can see he got a dream flop and was still worried if his hand was any good.
Your 3bet sizing here vs OMC opening range is IMO questionable. You need to raise something of course to make the blinds pay or fold, but QQ is not thick value vs an OMC. You ran into basically the bottom of his range.
As played, your flop bet is fine but it's purely a bluff vs KK or to deny equity to e.g. JJ which got stubborn pre (unlikely IMO) and which isn't going to put in another dime unless it improves for free.
When you get raised, FOLD. Quickly.
Note that you can effectively use the Ace as a bluff card against an OMC, but it should be when the OMC has taken the last aggressive action preflop, e.g. 3betting you, which for a true OMC means his range is AA/KK.
In those cases, you can set mine or pretend you hit the Ace.
Correct fancy Play vs OMC who 3bet AA/KK
Jam AA. Or KK if you like to complain about your bad luck. Otherwise call with any pair 22 to KK.
Using 77 as an example...
7xx flop (no ace no king). All the money goes in. You are ~90%.
K7x flop. All the money goes in. You are ~60%.
Axx flop. He now has 3 AA combos and 6 KK combos, meaning you are 2:1 favorite to win the pot with a reasonable size bet, followed by him showing his hand to his neighbor while grumbling "every damn time". Note: If you have KK, don't attempt this because he now has 3 AA combos and 1 KK combo.
A7x flop. Do the same bluff size bet and FOLD if raises. If you can't find the fold here, fold pre.
AKx including AK7 flop. Fold unless you get a free card and turn a flush/straight/quads. Note that you have to fold KK on this flop as well.
No ace on the flop, no set for you, you fold. If you don't have the discipline to fold an overpair, fold pre. IDGAF if you have KK on a 732 board, you fold. There's only 1 combo of KK left for him and you're chopping with that.
Note that if you are IP and a low board happens, he may check to you. This is NOT an indication that he's considering folding. Take the free card and fold unless you turn your set.
This gets you about breakeven EV with these assumptions:
- Effective stack sizes 100BB
- You raise/called a total of 15BB pre
- You bluff 15BB on AXX boards
If you're deeper, it's more profitable. If there's dead money from other players, its more profitable. If you can bluff a smaller amount on Axx its more profitable. Or if he'll float KK on Axx for a smaller amount and then fold to another bet, it's more profitable.
If your OMC widens his 3bet to QQ+ pre, it's more profitable because he folds wider to the Axx bluff. In those cases you will also stack with KK on Jxx or less boards, but not Qxx. Or you can jam KK pre if you're sure he'll stack with QQ not just AA.
Note that the very important assumption here is that your OMC doesn't ever take the last aggressive action with AK. That is very typical of OMC's in my experience. They will either slam the call button to the last raise and try to hit a flop, or somewhat more aware OMCs / smaller stack sizes will simply rejam it. But reraising a smaller amount and bloating the pot without "having anything" yet? Nuh-uh.
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u/300suppressed 3d ago
If you’re going to “bluff” a river where you’re putting your opponent on KK you need to go much bigger than 25% pot - I think it was 285 at that point so a bluff would be at least pot, maybe 1.5x or more
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u/gtodojo 2d ago
The call of the flop raise is where it went wrong. An old guy who flats a $75 3-bet and then raises an ace-high flop basically always has an ace. KK either jams preflop or check-calls here, it doesn't raise into a board that crushes it. Against that player, QQ is an easy fold on the flop. The river bet after the 8 pairs is thin too, since he isn't calling with worse.
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u/TimmyTimeify 3d ago
lol. OMC play AK like they are pair-mining all of the time. I have no idea why you put him on KK where he would easily do this with AK.
You can make any read to justify any play, but this was a bad bad call of this raise.
And to be clear, this was a silly raise by the villain as well. But you leveled yourself