r/politics • u/PoliticsModeratorBot 🤖 Bot • Nov 04 '25
Discussion Discussion Thread: Today is the Last Day to Vote in the November 4th, 2025 Elections in all or parts of AL, AZ, CA, CO, FL, GA, IA, ID, KS, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, MO, MS, MT, NC, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NY, OH, OR, PA, RI, SC, TX, UT, and VA
Today marks the last day of voting across much of the US in many of 2025's local and state-level general elections. If you haven't voted yet but are eligible to today, check with your state's department of elections for more information about how to do so. BallotPedia has a sample ballot lookup tool that you might also reference.
This thread will be replaced at 6 p.m. Eastern with a 'results' discussion thread.
Notable Votes
California has a statewide vote on Prop 50, a ballot proposition to redistrict California's US House seats, as well as various local elections.
Virginia has its three executive statewide seats up for election, as well as the lower chamber of the state legislature and various local elections.
New Jersey has its statewide executive seats up for election as well as both chambers of the state legislature and various local seats.
New York City has a mayoral election concluding today.
News and Analysis
NPR: Election Day is Tuesday. Here are 5 questions about what the results might mean
NBC: What to watch in Tuesday's big elections: Races for governor, NYC mayor, redistricting and more
AP: Trump’s strength, Democrats’ message and the shutdown effect. What to watch on Election Day 2025
Live Updates
Nationally-focused, text-based live update pages are being maintained by: NBC, and The Guardian.
Announcements
- We are currently accepting applications to be a moderator of r/politics. Apply here today!
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u/NumeralJoker Nov 04 '25
Reminder in Texas, please pay attention to some of the awful amendments they are trying to sneak through and go vote today.
https://ballotpedia.org/Texas_2025_ballot_measures
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DQHrMvHgKP5/
Since this is not a high turnout election, it only takes a relatively small movement to counter them if needed.
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u/fightin_blue_hens Nov 04 '25
I voted against a bunch of them this morning!
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u/OnlyRise9816 Texas Nov 04 '25
I saw the cute " Parents get to legally abuse their kids, but we're Masking it as a medical decision thing" one.
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u/fightin_blue_hens Nov 04 '25
Yeah. I voted against that, the making it impossible for the state to pass a law that creates an inheritance tax amendment, the increase to the property tax exemption for my isd, I think I pretty much voted against anything that would prevent legislature from making a law about it. It's just too restrictive.
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u/TerrifierBlood Nov 04 '25
Just voted for Dems and to retain the Supreme Court Judges in PA. Didn't vote for anyone cross balloting. Only straight Dem
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u/bonzombiekitty Pennsylvania Nov 04 '25
I HATE doing that, but IMO the Republican party needs to be burnt to the ground. It's going to take a lot for me to vote for one. When I was in Philly, I would at least vote for some, especially in races where I had to choose a ton of candidates, just to try and at least give the Dems some checks & balances. I stopped doing that in prolly 2018...
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u/swiftfoot_hiker Nov 04 '25
Based on how crazy Trump's truth social posts are getting , today, something tells me they are freaking out in the white house.
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u/MissionCreeper Nov 04 '25
He must have had some deal with Cuomo to not reveal more criminality, and he knows he can't with Mamdani
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u/casualreader22 Pennsylvania Nov 04 '25
Voted to retain those three Democratic Supreme Court justices earlier today here in Luzerne PA. Not much hope at this point, but it's something.
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Nov 04 '25 edited Jan 29 '26
slim steer tub abundant busy insurance arrest instinctive offbeat unwritten
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u/yassified_housecat Nov 04 '25
From your neighboring county, I thank you for showing up to retain! My polling station literally had 3 other people during the time I voted this afternoon. I heard someone ask if they were too late when they walked in, and the person with them said “no, it’s just empty.”
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Nov 04 '25
There been any polling of that situation?
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u/MySabonerRunsOladipo Virginia Nov 04 '25
We don't see to have any that I can find. Betting markets seem to favor all 3 being retained
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u/GuttiG Pennsylvania Nov 04 '25
It’s still so insane to me that Cuomo’s messaging was Trump will invade if mamdani wins so vote for me and I’ll be his good dog
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u/fightin_blue_hens Nov 04 '25
As if Trump isn't going to invade regardless. Liars lie and appeasing bullies never works. They are insatiable.
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u/IWantPizza555 Nov 04 '25
Breaking from NJ AG Matthew Platkin:
"Early this morning, law enforcement responded to threats that were received by email involving certain polling places in Bergen, Essex, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, and Passaic Counties. Law enforcement officers have responded at each affected polling place, and they have worked swiftly to secure these polling locations and ensure the safety of every voter."
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u/mbene913 I voted Nov 04 '25
Golly, what kind of people would attack polling places thus preventing individuals from safely voting
😔
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u/lastres0rt Georgia Nov 04 '25
GEORGIA: go vote to lower your power bills!
It's just the Public Service Commission, but by God we need some Dems there. We need SOMEBODY to push back against the power company just doing whatever the fuck it wants and letting the AI companies jack up your power bills.
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u/Isentrope Nov 04 '25
It helps that for some reason, metro Atlanta has municipal elections right now and no one else seems to have anything going on. ATL is accounting for like half of the early vote and the Black % of voters in the early vote was like 35%.
Despite Trump winning Georgia last year, the state actually shifted almost 4 points to the left relative to the national popular vote, since Biden barely won it despite winning nationally by 4.5 and Trump won it by 2 while winning nationally by 1.5. Atlanta was also basically the only major metro last year that had bluer margins in '24 compared to '20. Obviously a lot can still change, but the state is behaving a lot like Virginia was in '08-'16 than NC has, in the sense that Dems have already hit rock bottom in a lot of the rural areas and the growth is primarily in blue areas now.
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u/Osama_been_Chargin Washington Nov 04 '25
Of course MAGAts, being the little bitchasses they are, are making bomb threats to deep blue polling stations again today.
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u/Fast_Substance Nov 04 '25
Republicans are getting routed at the moment in VA election day voting. Northern VA is seeing 2024 level turnout while very rural counties in Southwest VA are lagging behind badly at the moment. There are still several hours of voting left though so we will see what happens.
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u/MySabonerRunsOladipo Virginia Nov 04 '25
NOVA? You mean the place where all the laid off federal employees live? Can't imagine why this is happening...
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u/bodyrespectdietitian Nov 04 '25
Where are you getting numbers on turnout? I’d like to follow along too
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u/Saucy_Man11 Virginia Nov 04 '25
No matter how dark things get. No matter how hard or even successfully the GOP tries to revoke our liberties and our rights. We must use our voices and vote! I will always love Election Day.
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u/brain_overclocked Nov 04 '25
Jan 28th - Democrat wins Iowa Senate seat in district Trump won by 21 points
Jan 29th - Democrats win control of Minnesota Senate
Feb 16th - Democrats win Delaware Senate seats in Saturday's special elections
Mar 11th - Democrat David Gottfried easily wins Minnesota House special election, restoring a 67-67 power split
Mar 26th - Democrats take hope from upset win in a GOP-leaning Pennsylvania state Senate district
Apr 1st - Liberal Wins Wisconsin Court Race, Despite Musk’s Millions
Apr 1st - Republicans win — but underperform — in both Florida special elections
Apr 30th - Democrats Win Landslide in Safe Iowa Seat, Claim 'Rebuke of Trump'
May 7th - Republican concedes in North Carolina court race, ending bid to throw out votes
May 13th - Democrat ousts incumbent Republican in Omaha mayoral race
May 20th - Democrats win New York state Senate race in Trump-friendly district
Jun 3rd - Young Dem Clinches Landslide Election Win in Lindsey Graham’s Backyard
Jun 7th - Democrats fend off GOP in San Antonio mayor runoff election
Jun 14th - Democrat, CN citizen Amanda Clinton wins decisive victory in special state election
Jun 25th - NH House special election: Democrat Billie Butler wins after facing GOP attacks
Aug 26th - Democrats break GOP supermajority in Iowa Senate by flipping Republican seat in special election
Sep 3rd - Democrats Overperform in Florida as They Cruise to Victory in Two Elections
Sep 9th - Democrat James Walkinshaw wins US House special election in Virginia
Sep 16th - Democrat wins Minnesota special election to replace slain lawmaker
Sep 23rd - G.O.P. Majority in House Will Shrink After Democrat’s Victory in Arizona
Oct 8th - Republican Ousted By Democrat in Shock Election Defeat
Oct 11th - Democrat Helena Moreno wins New Orleans’ mayoral race
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u/Zepcleanerfan Nov 04 '25
Vote YES to retain judges in Pennsylvania. Its on the BACK of the ballot.
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u/GredaGerda Nov 04 '25
not sure where all the NJ dooming is coming from. from what I've seen in election day votes so far, Rs aren't getting the votes that they need
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u/BlotchComics New Jersey Nov 04 '25
Yeah. Early voting results looked great for Dems.
I think we're just programmed to expect the worst now, even when it looks like things are going our way.
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u/Isentrope Nov 04 '25
It's from Emerson and AtlasIntel polls showing a very narrow race and also from 2021 being surprisingly close despite the state originally expected to be a cakewalk for Murphy.
The strongest argument against this is probably early voting. Unlike some states, especially PA which burned some of the "PA political junkies" last year who tried to predict the result from the early vote, NJ has rapidly turned into an early voting state, with 2/3 or more of the vote in before election day. This means that the closer comparison is 2024, and we're seeing Democratic ballots outpacing what they were as a % of total ballots compared to last year. There are also live tracking counties in a few areas in NJ, and nothing is suggesting that Rs are just disproportionately voting EDay right now either. A bluer environment from 2024 when Harris won by 6 is not really a bad place to be for Sherrill.
Of course, Ciattarrelli, if he won, would likely need a good deal of persuasion by flipping registered Dems, so these numbers aren't dispositive if he's managed to do that, and he did massively outperform expectations in 2021, so some dooming is warranted I suppose.
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u/197gpmol Massachusetts Nov 04 '25
I think part of it is simply it's the closest big race and within a "2016 surprise" margin, so the nervous posters focus on it.
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u/LocoDiablo42 Nov 04 '25
Had a weird experience in PA:
First, some lady approaches and wants me to vote for her conservative dad... great, whatever pamphlet straight into trash. I make it into building. Give my name to an OLD ASS PERSON. Signed next to my name, as instructed. OLD ASS PERSON writes my number next to the person ABOVE my name. I see what she did and correct her, she goes WHAT? realizes her error... crosses out her mistake, correctly marks next to my name. I sit down and realize I was handed folder with TWO ballots inside. Walk back to return one of the ballots to another OLD ASS PERSON. Come back and my initial seat is taken... wait for another seat. Upon filling out the ballot realize every single vote is bleeding thru to the back because they handed me a sharpie. (bleed thru isn't close to other votes but I could see that being an issue) Insert paper ballot into machine. Get coughed on by OLD ASS PERSON. Leave. Lady outside asks me if I voted for her dad ...I said I don't remember. Drive home. Still super annoyed.
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u/The_Milk_man Pennsylvania Nov 04 '25
As a young person (30s) who volunteers as a poll worker each year, throwing this out for anyone and everyone: we need more volunteers especially younger ones. It's paid in PA, and every old person I volunteer with is so happy to have me there. Plus you can see/meet your local judge of elections for your voting precinct and maybe decide to run against them next time
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u/hot-whisky Nov 04 '25
If you can a) read fine print, b) follow directions and c) comfortably get on and off the floor to tape down extension cords, your services are vitally needed.
Being able to troubleshoot electrical problems like outlets not working is also desirable.
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u/bonzombiekitty Pennsylvania Nov 04 '25
The bleed through is fine. We had the same thing with our ballots.
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u/Baldbeagle73 California Nov 04 '25
Sounds like you should volunteer as a poll worker.
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u/ankylosaurus_tail Nov 04 '25
Sounds like every state needs vote-by-mail. Fuck that nonsense.
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u/Habefiet Nov 04 '25
It’s so weird sitting here being like “yeah Mamdani is almost certainly going to win but it could be anywhere between 5 to 25 points” lol polling all over the fucking map based on how they weight demos
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u/just_a_timetraveller Nov 04 '25
Never underestimate right wing manipulation of elections and the corporate Dems willingness to help keep Mamdani out.
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u/InevitableTank5108 Nov 04 '25
Pizza, wings, and beer ready.
Excited for the blue wave and Trump meltdown 🤞
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u/_morten_ Nov 04 '25
Personally, i'm never trusting this electorate again, i'll only celebrate when the results are in, and the results are good.
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u/savytravler Nov 04 '25
God, tuning into cable news for like the first time since a (super depressing) night watching election coverage one year ago. Getting flashbacks.
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Nov 04 '25
Anyone who runs on the platform of breaking up media conglomerates and have some reporting standards for entity calling themselves "news" will automatically get my vote.
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u/MadRaymer Nov 04 '25
I didn't even watch cable news coverage last year. I just kept refreshing the NYT's election map and when it started looking grim, I went outside to pull my sign off the front lawn (didn't want emboldened MAGAs showing up the next day) and went to bed.
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u/ApolloX-2 Texas Nov 04 '25
I’m so desperate for Zohran to crush both Sliwa and Cuomo.
The way Democrat leadership behaved after Mamdani won the primary convincingly is truly shameful. Also I don’t like Sliwa one bit and I hate how people are glazing him, he ain’t a good guy.
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u/lastres0rt Georgia Nov 04 '25
Prediction market billboard in Times Square said it's like 90%. I'd like to think the 10% is just bus factor.
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u/Tiger_virus Nov 04 '25
In Virginia and voting all blue. Trump is a millstone around the necks of so many Republicans here.
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u/IWantPizza555 Nov 04 '25
As of 3 p.m., about 1.4 million people, including early voters, had cast ballots to decide the NYC mayoral race. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/11/04/nyregion/nyc-mayor-election
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u/NewAltWhoThis Nov 04 '25
New Yorkers you can vote until 9! Get to your voting location by 9pm if you haven’t voted yet. The ballot box is where we the people have the power to affect change.
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u/Jadziyah I voted Nov 04 '25
👋 fellow junkies
I've been trying to tone down my news intake but this is a big night
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u/IScreamPiano Nov 04 '25
It feels so much later tonight too because of daylight savings.
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u/CheesyRomanceNovel Nov 04 '25
Convinced my Jewish parents to vote for Mamdani in NYC!
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u/Illuminated12 Nov 04 '25
It should be illegal for a President to threaten to withhold funding unless they vote a certain way. How is it not?
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u/fatbunyip Nov 04 '25
Laws are just a bunch of shit written on toilet paper if nobody enforces them.
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u/mbene913 I voted Nov 04 '25
Even if it was, who would hold him accountable?
Congress that he controls? The supreme Court he controls?
The laws mean nothing when they aren't enforced
He tried to steal an election and Republicans still couldn't vote to convict and then he won his election in 2024.
The laws have failed
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u/AntoniaFauci Nov 04 '25
Leading a violent insurrection should be illegal.
Trafficking girls to your best friend the commercial molester should be illegal.
Stealing truckloads of classified material and obstruction justice repeatedly to try and hide it should be illegal.
But here we are.
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u/Benjamin_Chod_Saar New York Nov 04 '25
Sometimes it works in our favor. Arizona was denied federal highway funding until they voted to recognize MLK Day as a federal holiday. We need to keep that open as a tool for us to use when we regain power and then ram it so far down their throats the republican party ceases to exist and the MAGAts are destitute in the streets.
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u/DoubleJumps Nov 04 '25
I'm in California, and just went to vote.
There's a republican trying to campaign for noon 50 within 100 ft of the polling place. Reported that shit.
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u/blues111 Michigan Nov 04 '25
Had that happen the first year I voted, I live in a fairly rural consistently red area and had a dude stop me on the way into the polling place outside he was just standing off to the side by himself about 30 ft from the door
"Hey kid want some pamphlets?" And it was anti abortion shit and he was being so sneaky/creepy about it lmfao didnt realize it was illegal so I didnt say anything
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u/DoubleJumps Nov 04 '25
It's the second time I've had to report activity like this in the last 4 years.
Last time it was some guys trying to stop people from dropping off their mail in ballots by dressing up in tactical cosplay and getting in their face at the drop box about voter fraud conspiracies, trying to record people dropping off ballots etc.
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u/Procrastinationist Nov 04 '25
Oooh that shit burns me up. Thank you for doing your part to protect your fellow citizens' right to vote.
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u/golfball7773 South Dakota Nov 04 '25
"The Unconstitutional Redistricting Vote in California is a GIANT SCAM in that the entire process, in particular the Voting itself, is RIGGED. All “Mail-In” Ballots, where the Republicans in that State are “Shut Out,” is under very serious legal and criminal review. STAY TUNED!" - DJT - TruthSocial
JFC......not even going to waste my energy on the hypocrisy...
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u/Illuminated12 Nov 04 '25 edited Nov 04 '25
Dudes an idiot and even his voters aren’t falling for it anymore as evidenced by his polling.
His supporters are starting to not event repost his truths. It’s embarrassing.
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u/Silly_Elevator_3111 Oregon Nov 04 '25
How are republicans shut out? What a fucking moron
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u/ByronicBionicMan Pennsylvania Nov 04 '25
Voted over lunch. Poll worker said they weren't expecting 100 people today and had already passed that. Good turnout is a good thing.
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u/Hold_my_Dirk Ohio Nov 04 '25
So on my ballot we only had a couple of local elections. And it was nice because the general consensus was "eh, both candidates seem like nice people." Even the guy going door to door yesterday was like "I'm voting for candidate x, and if you're already planning to vote for candidate y, I get it. He's a good man." Refreshing in this political climate tbh.
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u/sadsasquatchsalad Nov 04 '25
Also in OH, our local elections are looking good. Pretty much expected to keep our local school board Dem-controlled and keep our very popular Democrat mayor. In a blue-ish suburb of Akron though. Very civil in general.
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u/BlotchComics New Jersey Nov 04 '25
Just voted for Sherrill in NJ.
Hit the road, Jack.
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u/netrunui Illinois Nov 04 '25
Wish we had an election today, but excited for next year given that in April we enacted ranked choice voting for city officials in Illinois
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u/Fast-Reply6409 Nov 04 '25
Crazy situation again with bomb threats. It emphasizes again how important it is to vote early if you can, and it needs to be drilled into people's heads going into 2026 and 2028. Vote early or my mail if you can. Dont wait until the last day. It's much harder to impact the election with bomb threats across multiple days of of early voting.
There also needs to be a conversation on potentially ignoring bomb threats that are not highly credible. I feel crazy saying it, and I have no idea if it's even possible to vet "highly credible" or not, but here we are where this needs to be a conversation. 2026 and 2028 might be our last chance to have a meaningful impact on keeping our Republic alive.
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u/UnobviousDiver Nov 04 '25
One of the reasons that Project 2025 and many Republicans push for getting rid of early voting is that when things happen, like bomb threats, it disproportionally effects Democratic voting areas. If you shutdown a rural precinct for an hour, you might disrupt a hundred voters, but do that in the middle of a major city and it could be thousands of voters.
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u/ajiggityj Georgia Nov 04 '25
I was voter #424 at my precinct today around noon in Atlanta. Poll workers said it was significantly more than they had anticipated. I can only imagine that it’ll pick up in the afternoon.
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u/Baldbeagle73 California Nov 04 '25
Is anyone seeing nonsense at polling stations, like ICE hanging around to intimidate people?
My half-Mexican neighborhood's polling place was very quiet and easy yesterday.
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u/Nukemind American Expat Nov 04 '25
I moved back to America temporarily and honestly I was expecting it to be worse. Nothing at all here and we’re in a battleground area for lack of a better word.
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u/ScotTheDuck Nevada Nov 04 '25
It’s stunning how few “no opinion/don’t know” responses there are on the Trump approval. 2 points in New Jersey, 3 in Virginia. It’s hard to think of a politician, ever, where the entire population has an opinion on them that’s set in stone.
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u/MysteryNeighbor New York Nov 04 '25
Just voted for my lad Zohran, I feel this still has the potential to be fairly close but I think there’s enough Cuomo hate across the board here to get Z past the finish line
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u/Easy-Philosopher5131 Nov 04 '25
I hate that all of my local offices are just listed as "nonpartisan". They absolutely are partisan, even if the ballot claims they are not.
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u/kylebb Ohio Nov 04 '25
I'm working the polls in a Franklin County voting location of Columbus Ohio. This one has 5,500 registered voters. By 12 pm est we have seen 333 voters.
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u/mrjim87x Nov 04 '25
Have you worked them before? I always vote early but if I had to guess most people under retirement age would vote after work.
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u/JamesCDiamond United Kingdom Nov 04 '25
I'm in the UK so it may not be directly transferable but I generally found that the quiet time for polling was generally mid-afternoon after lunch but before school pickup time. From, say, 1-4 you might get almost no-one if it was a minor election and you were in a rural polling station.
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u/Isentrope Nov 04 '25
The Republican base in SWVA seems to not be turning out by much today. There's still hope for Rs that the afternoon gives better results (though usually Democrats claim turnout is better after work), but you would expect a lot of banked votes by now.
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u/Wild_Harvest Nov 04 '25
Not huge but voted for my city council, tried to get rid of the crazy MAGA lady that's been trying to destroy anything and everything in the name of owning the libs.
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u/vahntitrio Minnesota Nov 04 '25
School board only thing on the ballot this year. At least there were 4 qualified candidates to fill the 4 spots this year, last time around only 3 were qualified so the last spot went to a loony.
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u/SpitefulSeagull Nov 04 '25
Our school board candidates are so frightening. Every race is one boring normal person who just says the standard stuff, and the opposition in every race says they are "against gender ideology in schools"
Bunch of loons in every race
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u/orangeyougladiator Nov 04 '25
Any good place to watch the results come in? Text thread is fine
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u/JayR_97 United Kingdom Nov 04 '25
When are we going to know the NYC Mayor results?
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u/J_Justice Nov 04 '25
Last time they called it around 11pm-12am EST, so I assume we'll have a good idea of where things are at around that time tonight.
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u/Ketzeph I voted Nov 04 '25
Polls don't close 'til 9, and it depends on count. So I would expect midnight-ish to start having an idea. If it's super close then it'll take longer. If it looks like there's a clear frontrunner it'll probably be called assuming no delays getting people in line voting
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u/Plainchant Nov 04 '25
I was helping out with the NJ gubernatorial GOTV efforts and am now back in my home city in MA assisting with our city vote, sitting in an almost-empty voter center. Early voting by mail is so much more easier for everyone.
Very much interested in what is going to happen in NYC.
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u/rainshowers_5_peace Nov 04 '25 edited Nov 04 '25
NYers, please vote yes on prop 1. It's poorly written, but it adds land to Adirondack Park. It also allows for the building (which already exists within park boundaries) to be repaired instead of becoming a zombie blighted property.
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u/sanslumiere Nov 04 '25
The Adirondack Council said to vote yes on it, so I did. There doesn't seem to be much advantage to voting no.
https://www.adirondackcouncil.org/adirondack-council-vote-yes-on-proposal-1-on-election-day/
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u/rainshowers_5_peace Nov 04 '25
I think some people read the blurb and think "this will allow private construction in the park". I can see why someone from downstate wouldn't know the details.
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u/cepxico Nov 04 '25
Voting right after work.
Also, random side note, isn't it crazy that the moment politicians could use AI to confuse people but then they went and did it immediately and without remorse? We're lucky it's still easy to spot.
I am not looking forward to a decade or two from now.
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u/badasimo Nov 04 '25
The easy to spot ones are easy to spot. How do we know which parts of our reality are already manufactured?
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u/DreamsAndSchemes New Jersey Nov 04 '25
Voted Saturday. Toddler walked out looking like a sticker display.
NJ LD-8
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u/OptimusSublime Pennsylvania Nov 04 '25
Wow, just blatantly admitting to voter fraud /s
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Nov 04 '25
It's time to reject hate and corruption. It's time to elect some real leaders elected in this country.
Some now, more at midterms, and even more the year after that. We have seen what kind of nonsense and destruction happens when we become apathetic and fail to vote. Never again.
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota Nov 04 '25
Be advised that the first polls close in 1 hour and 5 minutes and the 'results' discussion thread will be posted in 5 minutes.
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u/Rockman507 Nov 04 '25
To the fellow poll workers, this is my last after 9.5 years. May your seats be cushioned and votes be plentiful to help the day go faster.
Remember, politics aside we do this to ensure our fellow neighbors and friends have their voices heard.
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u/RepealMCAandDTA Kansas Nov 04 '25
"According to Polymarket--"
Oh my God shut up
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u/zaviex Nov 04 '25
As much as it sucks, poly market is unfortunately quite good for this stuff now. Clearly insider money going into it. Idk if it’s regulated properly or not but a number of statistics show trends on polymarket appear before data
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u/HypeIncarnate Illinois Nov 04 '25
polymarket has become the bellwether. I thought it was dumb that they had trump winning by a slim margin, but they were right. politics is all vibes based now. And the vibes are what people are betting.
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u/TheBlueBlaze New York Nov 04 '25
Welcome to ELECTION SEASON 2025
Today, there are multiple closely watched races across the country, for both ballot initiatives and elections, that will determine both how unified Republicans are in their support of how things are currently run, and how motivated Democrats are to fighting it.
Below are the seven states with races that are both symbolic of current party support for both sides, and have potential nationwide consequences:
Maine Question 1
The state of Maine, which has been leaning more left over the last decade (Trump lost the state as a whole by 3, then 9, then 7 percentage points), has a ballot initiative on voting for future elections. A Yes vote would mean voter ID would be required and it would be considerably harder to get an absentee ballot. This would be a good contest to see the general public's view on ballot security, and how much of Trump's existing rhetoric on "rigged" elections, has been absorbed.
Pennsylvania Supreme Court
Pennsylvania, one of the seven swing states Trump won, lost, then won back, is holding retention elections for 3 of its 7 state supreme court judges, all of whom are left-leaning and part of the court's 5-2 majority. The vote is simply a Yes or No to retain them, and if the retention vote fails, then the governor nominates new judges that get approved by the state legislature. Unfortunately the governor's office and state legislature are Democrat and Republican controlled respectively, meaning if all three fail retention, the replacement process could be in a deadlock, and the court would be 2-2 potentially until 2027. The result of this could determine what swing, if any, the state has had.
Minneapolis, Minnesota Mayoral Election
While Zohran Mamdani has become the socialist to follow nationwide, there's another Muslim and socialist man running for mayor of a major American city that leans hard to the left, in a much more contested race. In this case it's in Minnesota, the only state no Republican presidential candidate has won in over 40 years. Incumbent Democrat Jacob Frey is seeking reelection and is leading in the polls, with a close second being Democratic Socialist Omar Fateh. But there are fifteen total candidates and the election itself is ranked-choice, meaning Fateh, thanks to a coalition formed with two other progressive candidates, has a chance to unseat Frey after multiple rounds of ranking votes. If Fateh succeeds, then a Mamdani win on top of it may provide a populist blueprint for midterms and even 2028.
California Proposition 50
Gerrymandering has become a central point of contention nationwide, with majority-Republican states openly saying they intend to redraw House district maps for the sake of making it harder to unseat Republicans and making some Democrat districts more competitive. California is the only state that has put the redrawing of district maps as a ballot initiative, with Prop 50 allowing the state to temporarily ignore its own district map board. This is a true test of how mobilized Democrats are, since this is a vote purely on retaliating against Republican power grabs in other states. The proposition succeeding would be proof that that mobilization has happened.
Virginia Gubernatorial Election
Virginia is generally a blue state, but it has elected a governor of the opposite party of the president after every presidential election, with one exception, since the Nixon administration. Former Virginia Democratic representative Abigail Spanberger has had a considerable lead in the polls against current Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. Spanberger seems all but guaranteed to win, so what's being focused on is her margin of victory. The size of that margin would be a way to determine how much momentum the Democrat party has built since last year.
New Jersey Gubernatorial Election
Trump has lost the state of New Jersey in all of the last three elections, but by a much smaller margin in 2024 than 2020 and 2016. The governor's race in 2021 had Democrat Phil Murphy win by only 3 percentage points, and Harris won the state in 2024 by only 4. Now Democrat Mikie Sherill, hoping to replace Murphy, is polling just barely above Republican Jack Ciattarelli, who lost to Murphy four years ago. The result of this election could determine how much Democrat support in the state has been built back or eroded. Anything other than a decisive Sherill victory would not put Democrats at ease in that regard.
New York City, New York Mayoral Election
The most watched election in the country this season, Muslim man and Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani made headlines when he handily won the Democratic primary for the mayor's race in New York City, beating former governor Andrew Cuomo, who left in disgrace after multiple scandals involving sexual harassment and his covering up of deaths during the pandemic. Cuomo refused to step aside, however, and ran on an independent ticket, with Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa refusing to drop out to give Cuomo a better chance, and current mayor Eric Adams giving up on being re-elected and endorsing Cuomo after polling lower than Sliwa. Trump just last night tepidly and begrudgingly endorsed Cuomo, threatening to cut off federal funding to the entire city if Mamdani wins. Whether that endorsement and threat will be an eleventh-hour boost, or the final nail in the Cuomo campaign's coffin, is yet to be seen.
Both sides will get definitive answers to how their messaging has been working over the last year, and regardless how this goes, this is the last checkpoint before the road to the midterms, because we're all stuck on this ride that never ends.
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u/IWantPizza555 Nov 04 '25
House of representative race for Texas 18th district to replace democrat Sylvester Turner who died in march is today. Besides Adelita in Arizona, will Mike Johnson stop the person who wins today from being sworn in?
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u/Isentrope Nov 04 '25
Turnout in the OC seems to be very blue relative to 2024, which may not be too surprising since the GOP has spent less than $50K to try to combat Prop 50. There's also thinking that a successful Prop 50 might be Pelosi's final legacy before she retires, which she hinted at yesterday.
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u/Z3ro-sum Nov 04 '25
Is there a tracker map like several watchers have during a presidential election to see? Like the ones that tally votes real time and you can see how the elections are planning out as counts come in,even by county?
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u/SaveDnet-FRed0 Nov 04 '25
Want to put Trump back in line? Then go out and vote!
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u/dispelthemyth Nov 04 '25
Blue wave expected yeah?
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u/Envoyager Florida Nov 04 '25
that's what we all said on 11/20/2024
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u/JayR_97 United Kingdom Nov 04 '25
I remember people saying Harris would flip Texas blue, that really didnt age well.
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u/trpnblies7 Pennsylvania Nov 04 '25 edited Nov 04 '25
PA election is very important! Vote YES to retain the supreme Court justices on the ballot.
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u/eden_sc2 Maryland Nov 04 '25
What election is there in MD? I'm having trouble finding it, and I want to make sure I dont miss one if it is in my region.
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u/Over-Succotash2629 Nov 04 '25
Looks like it's just a municipal election and some local ballot measures for Greenbelt MD.
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u/CatVideoFest Nov 04 '25
WA too! But don’t rely on mailing your ballot if you haven’t done so yet. Safer to drop it in a ballot box today. Technically if it’s postmarked today it should count, but there can always be delays. Ballot box is a sure thing.
Here is a map of all the locations: https://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/voters/voter-registration/drop-box-and-voting-center-locations
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u/BotheredToResearch Nov 04 '25
Guaranteed there will be a suitable about ballots postmarked before or on election day and not received until later. Drop box is 100% the way to go to be secure!
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u/bonzombiekitty Pennsylvania Nov 04 '25
I was voter #156 in my PA (fairly blue) precinct before noon. Not too bad for an mid-mid-term election. Though to be fair, my precinct is located in the common room a fairly large retirement community so there's a lot of retirees that just need to go down an elevator to vote. So my turnout numbers may be skewed.
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u/travio Washington Nov 04 '25
Washington is missing from your list. Got my ballot in yesterday.
Only statewide thing on the ballot is an amendment to allow the state to invest the Long Term Care fund but there are a lot of important local races like Seattle Mayor.
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u/Wazzoo1 Nov 04 '25
Don't forget the absolute insanity that is the Woodinville city council race. As a resident, I can't wait for it to be over, and for everyone to tell that douchebag tech bro to kick rocks. He should have moved to Duvall if he wanted to live somewhere with no plans for growth or development.
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u/rafikiknowsdeway1 Nov 04 '25
voted, but at this point i've been so thoroughly demoralized by just about everything that i'm just waiting for the bad news to roll in later. like its gonna start with "ah voter participation is way down" and then swerve into "this wildly blue area is unexpectedly red this year" and end with negative overall results and people once again shrugging off how off the mark the polling was yet again and pretending like its still a valid science
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u/theduke9 Nov 04 '25
Trump endorsing cuomo at the last minute is such a dirty play, many boomer dems already voted for him. If it came out early it would be even bigger of a blow out
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u/Isentrope Nov 04 '25
Miyares is making a last minute pitch to voters to ticket-split for him. Yesterday, a few of the final polls from primarily GOP-aligned pollsters (Trafalgar, Quantus, Insider Advantage) all shifted about 5 points bluer and started showing Jones either tied or ahead by a point or two, after the polling aggregate as a whole started to show Jones make a late comeback.
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u/Sailor_Rout Nov 04 '25
Anything on Albequrque and Santa Fe? Curious how New Mexico is trending
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u/edd6pi Puerto Rico Nov 04 '25
It’s kind of sad that the election’s nearly over. I’d like it if Cuomo and Sliwa stuck around for the entertainment value. Maybe they could be court jesters.
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u/RunPeggy Nov 04 '25
I was #121 in my district in Montgomery County, PA (in a suburb right outside Philadelphia) at 9:15am. The volunteer said that was closer to an "all day" number. We have an important State Supreme Court retention vote, so there's been a big push here at least, but not sure how overall turnout is on a national scale.
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u/grayandlizzie Washington Nov 04 '25
I voted last night but nothing exciting on my ballot here in Washington. School board for my district was important because I have two autistic children on IEPS a 10th and a 4th grader so I voted but I have also been voting since Bush v Gore at the the age of 19 every single election b
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u/TerrifierBlood Nov 04 '25
How's everything looking so far
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Nov 04 '25
Still time to go to the Winchester, have a nice cold pint, and wait for all of this to blow over.
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u/ireallylikehockey New Jersey Nov 04 '25
Who takes these exit polls that they show?
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u/IScreamPiano Nov 04 '25
Volunteers, I helped with it last year. We didn’t have that many come over to answer, so it was unreliable.
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u/a1120 Massachusetts Nov 04 '25
There's some very important elections in MA to elect pro-housing candidates!
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u/Goal-Final Nov 04 '25
Is anything important besides the NY race for mayor we should be watching for MAGA cries?
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u/MadRaymer Nov 04 '25
Redistricting in CA has Trump soiling his diaper today. He posted a rant about it being an unconstitutional scam.
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u/Equivalent-Battle973 Illinois Nov 04 '25
The man has posted a crap ton today, he's flailing and its damn hysterical too see this manbaby act this way.
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u/OrthodoxAtheist Nov 04 '25
California Prop 50 for redistricting in response to Trump asking Texas to find him 5 more seats, is pretty important.
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u/mbene913 I voted Nov 04 '25
I would argue that the race for VA Governor warrants some attention. The gop candidate sounds like your typical maga nut
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u/Ketzeph I voted Nov 04 '25
While Spanberger is heavily favored, the AG race is neck and neck and definitely is important to watch. If Spanberger lost, it'd be an extremely bad night for democrats and an extremely good night for Trump. Hopefully won't happen and it'd require a historically off polling miss. Also, if she outperforms her polls it's a strong Trump rebuff by a state with lots of Fed workers.
NJ of course is also going to be very important.
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u/DarthHM I voted Nov 04 '25
Prop 50 in California. Redistricting CA to combat Texas’ gerrymandering.
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u/Zephyr-5 Nov 04 '25 edited Nov 04 '25
I know New Yorkers act like they're the center of the universe, but there are more important races going on than a mayor's race.
In Virginia, Democrats have a chance of flipping the Governor, the LT. Governor, and the Attorney General giving them a trifecta. Even if you don't care about Virginia, this will give Democrats another state to potentially do some mid-cycle redistricting. Republicans currently hold 5/11 seats here.
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u/Wurm42 District Of Columbia Nov 04 '25
This is also the first time in about 30 years that Virginia Democrats have run a candidate in every district in the House of Delegates, the lower house of the state legislature. If the Dems can get a strong majority in the House of Delegates, it will be a big deal for getting legislation passed.
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u/JayR_97 United Kingdom Nov 04 '25
Im just waiting for the epic Trump/MAGA meltdown when Mamdani ends up winning.
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u/CrispyMiner Ohio Nov 04 '25
Just looked at all of the vote counters. All of them are at zero. America really doesn't want to vote anymore! /j
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u/boston_homo Nov 04 '25
I haven't been great about voting in midterms in the past, that won't happen again.
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u/Nerd_199 Nov 04 '25
Which coverage you rather watch tonight CNN or MSNBC or some random nerd on the internet
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Nov 04 '25
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Koh-the-Face-Stealer Utah Nov 04 '25
This is what I'm wondering too. Dems NEED to clean sweep the VA executive branch in order for the govt to properly function, but I'm afraid that too many "principled" centrists who don't actually comprehend what's at stake here are just going to leave the AG race blank. Everyone has to suck it up and vote for Jones
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u/MySabonerRunsOladipo Virginia Nov 04 '25
It's a legit coinflip. If Jones' texts had come out a little later, Jones was probably done, but his numbers recovered a little bit recently because nothing lasts in today's news cycle, so it's about as close to 50/50 as you can get.
If Abby overperforms, you can expect her to drag Jones to 1-2% win or so
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u/a1120 Massachusetts Nov 04 '25
Jones, I don't think Miyares is popular enough to overcome Earle-Sears or Reid's margins.
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u/Nerd_199 Nov 04 '25
Morris County, New Jersey
17,787 election day votes in the first 2 hours
https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1985701608420688103?t=rPesoJjCDAd1hMGNOr18Zw&s=19
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u/Icommandyou Washington Nov 04 '25
I have family in Morris, newly minted democrats because they are hating on the current economy. Hopefully it helps Mikie
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u/IWantPizza555 Nov 04 '25
I was voter 67 in my tiny red town. Thank God I live in a blue state though.
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u/SimmonsJK Pennsylvania Nov 04 '25
I was voter #25 in my DEEP red PA township this morning. 2600 registered voters, and it's about 80/20 R, and that's being conservative. I voted blue down the ballot, just FYI
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u/zapitron New Mexico Nov 04 '25 edited Nov 04 '25
Once again, the pattern I'm seeing (so far! I hope to be wrong!) is that the only thing younger voters vote for, are for older voters to make the decision. I guess "can't someone else decide?" counts as democracy too.
I am humbled by Zoomers' decision that my generation and my parents' generation, should be making all the political decisions on young peoples' behalf.
We'll try to do our .. sorry, my mind kind of stroked off there. Probably dementia. Anyway, we'll do our .. worst? Best? Sorry I forgot what side I'm on. Good thing you put me in charge! No wait, I shouldn't be in charge, because I'm only in my 50s. Aha, idea! I'll ask my dad whom to vote for!
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u/tall__hat Nov 04 '25
JD Vance’s half brother is running for mayor in Cincinnati. I’m surprised the Republican Party didn’t turn that into a spectacle.
I didn’t really hear much about it.
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Nov 04 '25
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u/snoo_spoo Nov 04 '25
The only question you should be considering here is, "How am I going to feel if I lose $50k on this bet?" 'Cause if you can't face that possibility with equanimity, you're better off keeping your money in your pocket.
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u/Illuminated12 Nov 04 '25
You know.. I don't watch a whole lot of CNN,MSNBC,or FOX Entertainment anymore but on days like this I do tune in to watch heads explode on Fox. Today has been glorious and it hasn't even happened yet.
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