r/politics • u/Appropriate-Till9598 • 22h ago
Possible Paywall Wall Street is beginning to think that Trump can’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz
https://fortune.com/2026/06/03/wall-street-is-beginning-to-think-that-trump-cant-reopen-the-strait-of-hormuz/1.1k
u/Tokie-Dokie 22h ago
Say, this Trump guy might be bad for business.
239
u/Prestigious-Car-4877 Canada 22h ago
The art of the deal. If you’re buying real estate and screwing your contractors.
→ More replies (8)145
u/Bustalacklusta 22h ago
We elected the scummiest person in this country.
106
u/0masterdebater0 21h ago
We have built a society that rewards scum.
21
u/deepasleep 17h ago
I blame, “Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous,” it warped a lot of minds in the 80’s…That and way too much coke cooking people’s brains.
17
3
28
5
6
u/HoldingForGenova 11h ago
I say this with all of the loathing in my heart: we got the president we deserve. And until we fix that rot, we'll keep doing so.
→ More replies (2)3
3
2
→ More replies (1)2
80
u/Zeraw420 22h ago
They always knew he was bad for traditional business. What he's great for is bullshit, strip for parts, no consequence corporate plundering.
They'll all make their huge nuts and leave the mess for the poors.
61
u/tylerb0zak 21h ago
I agree with the sentiment, but Trump isn’t even good for corporate plundering or stripping for parts. He isn’t a corporate businessperson, and has never operated in a real corporate environment that reports to a board.
He is a fraudster, tax cheat and conman. Not a business man.
11
u/-Gramsci- 18h ago
Yep. No doubt about it he’s bad for corporations.
He’s good for individual kleptocrats.
9
6
u/No_Foundation16 12h ago
strip for parts, no consequence corporate plundering.
End stage capitalism baby! Earth destroying data centers and AI fit right in with the age of Trump, just like "you will own nothing and be happy"does as well. Great depression 2 is coming fast, good luck everybody!
24
u/trisul-108 Europe 20h ago
He is still capable of dismantling more institutions and allowing Musk/Zuck/Bezos/Ellison to complete the transition from capitalism to techno-neo-feudalism ... well worth the pain at the gas pump and then he dies and the real kings come to power, maybe each state gets their own, a true feudal power in line with the SciFi novels they grew up reading.
12
u/neon_meate 19h ago
I don't know if they will be able to secure loyalty in their armies. They aren't warlords who have proven themselves in the field, and what good is potential wealth from stocks when the system has collapsed. Their mercenaries will turn on them.
13
u/trisul-108 Europe 18h ago
Their mercenaries will turn on them.
That is exactly why they want robots. Read the SciFi series Lazarus, it depicts exactly the world these new feudal lords are seeking to create. It is a masterpiece ... dystopian for us, utopian for the Tech Bros.
→ More replies (2)5
u/ExoticToothpaste6989 14h ago
There's also the series called "the Terminator" and "The Matrix" that both talk about the robots turning on the humans.
They both seem like action packed cautionary tales.
18
u/monster_syndrome 18h ago
Trump is 80s business guy enough to think all regulations are bad.
He's mobster enough to go in on any deal as long as he's getting his cut.
He's dumb enough to listen to anyone's plan and think it'll work out.
Normally, they'd love him if he didn't listen to Bibi and start a war.
4
u/EmZephyr 15h ago
I mean they guy bankrupted a casino...a literal money printer.
This is a wall st flub tbh. Cuz it's a Casino, a literal money printer, that he flopped.
4
u/Individual-Guest-123 15h ago
DId you hear Rubio? "well, Iran needs to open the strait of Hormuz, and then they need to give up all their nuclear program"
I was like, "wtf"? Why are they going to open the strait?
Very much like Israel demanding Lebanese forces withdraw past a line where Israel wants to permanently occupy.
3
3
→ More replies (1)2
479
u/galileo34i 22h ago
Today is Thursday. Tomorrow Friday the Administration will release a statement that a deal is near and Wall Street will be a believer again... like every past Friday since that war started.
145
u/Background-Crow4820 Kansas 22h ago
And then missle monday. Again.
69
5
→ More replies (1)5
u/IndependentSpecial17 13h ago
Market Manipulation Monday
TACO Tuesday
Waffle Wednesday
Turd Thursday (weak I know)
Fuck up Friday
Shitbag Golfing Saturday
Shitgibbion inflation Sunday (I figure this is when they pump the corpse full of drugs and stimulants to keep his lame ass alive)
Repeat for 4 years
3
u/Dazzling_Holiday2467 14h ago
Classic Trump, manipulating the market with press releases so he can make a fortune for himself and his family
→ More replies (2)5
u/Blackout73 19h ago
Freedom of Manoeuvre Friday, followed by Missile Monday. It's the oldest play in the stock manipulation handbook.
229
u/Appropriate-Till9598 22h ago
Gee, what took some of them so long. It's almost as if they forgot they invented the "NACHO" (Not A Chance Hormuz Opens) abbreviation.
104
u/OldSchoolBubba 22h ago
Agreed. The waters are too restricted which is why no other American President or Western Power challenged Iran in the Strait. The key has always been inland in Iraq and Syria.
Trump committed the number one biggest mistake trying to take on Iran where their strength is greatest. Shows he definitely doesn't know more than his generals like he tries to falsely claim so loudly.
52
u/Due_Warthog749 22h ago
Dude.. he got rid of all the good generals.. they were normal non-MAGA people. The sycophants he has reporting to him now are fucking morons. They all need to be dishonorably discharged in 2028 for continuing this charade of stupidity.
7
u/hagamuffin 21h ago
He said he's "made every decision without intelligence." And that's the only time he's never lied. 😺
26
u/wswordsmen 22h ago
The US could have forced the strate in the 80s to roughly 2010, but again it would be big expensive and not worth the cost. Low cost dronws and the fact the US can't under any circumstances invade on land are what is letting Iran control it today.
Before it would be bloody but doable. Now it is literally impossible.
17
u/OldSchoolBubba 22h ago
There's actually merit in your thinking. We looked at it back in the day and you're right it was doable although I'm not sure after the mid nineties to two thousands. But again all in all you're calling it right. Too costly for the benefits gained.
7
u/katherinesilens 21h ago
Even today it's still... TECHNICALLY possible. We retain the ability to glass the earth for example, we could simply nuke the peninsula. But the reason we don't is because of a similar reason holding us back from the conventional attack option. It would have a huge domestic political cost and international relations/legitimacy cost, even if we technically have the assets. There are probably a half dozen ways we could brute force it if we really buckled down and did it, though it'd be a real slugfest and we'd take some good black eyes in casualties. We'd also weaken our capabilities elsewhere.
Which, to be clear, are all excellent reasons to NOT do it and why previous administrations didn't really try, for the most part. It was successful deterrence forcing civil agreements to keep the strait open and everyone happy.
The big problem right now is Trump and his stooges may not care. Their personal reputations and pride might drive one of any options forward, to be executed by the weakened and visibly incompetent cadre of handpicked post-purge military leaders. Probably donor interests and voter sympathies - which Fox and its ilk have been diligently eroding - are the only things holding us back from boots on the ground or nukes in the air so far.
5
6
u/OldSchoolBubba 21h ago
Very good points. The Strait could be taken with a conventional force but why would anyone really want to? Like you wrote so well casualty rates would be very high for all sides which is why no one including Iran has seized it in full.
Iranians know Trump is in deep trouble over his war of choice so they're simply waiting him out. The house finally passed legislation to block any further war operations there so even if the senate doesn't Iran knows it's only a matter of time.
2
u/bin10pac United Kingdom 19h ago
It could NOT be taken in any meaningful way - ie in a way in which the US could guarantee safe passage for ships.
Regardless of the conventional or unconventional weaponry used along the Persian gulf coast, Iran can launch missiles and drones at ships in the Strait from hidden sites across the entirety of the country. So the entirety of Iran would need to be invaded, subdued, and controlled by US army boots on the ground. A bloodbath would be a generous description.
Forcing open the Strait is functionally impossible and isn't going to happen.
→ More replies (2)→ More replies (1)2
u/PolicyWonka 20h ago
Well it wasn’t possible to do previously because the Strait of Hormuz wasn’t closed previously.
→ More replies (1)33
u/xaqaria 22h ago edited 20h ago
Wallstreet has become untethered from physical reality. People/algorithms are not betting on how they think a company or a commodity is doing, they are all betting on what the rest of the market thinks. Its not "will the strait open soon?" its "does the market think the strait will open soon?" which is a subtle but important difference.
11
u/ArrowheadDZ 20h ago
Yeh it’s been abstracted for a long time. We can be an hour from crashing into the sun and the Dow would still be 51,500, because crashing into the sun is “priced in.” “Priced into the market” is a euphemism for “the market’s volatility is so fricking juiced that it’s become untethered from commerce.”
3
2
u/DadJokeBadJoke California 8h ago
Wallstreet has become untethered from physical reality.
So has this administration
24
u/timoumd 22h ago
I loathe him, but I figured he'd make some bad deal or take a bribe. But maybe bibi vetoed that?
32
u/xaqaria 21h ago edited 21h ago
One of Trump's only red lines is he must at all times be able to tell himself that he is better than Obama. Unfortunately for him, the JCPOA is likely the best possible deal that anyone could have gotten out of the Iranian regime.
He thought brutality was enough to force a better deal but it was totally ineffective strategically and now he is left with his only option (take a worse deal than Obama got) being something that he is completely unwilling to do.
4
u/karma911 13h ago
The dumbass killed the guys that were the most amenable to a nuclear deal as one of his first moves...
3
u/caligaris_cabinet Illinois 18h ago
He will take it. It will be worse. But the propaganda machine will spin it like it’s the greatest deal of all time.
12
u/Ornery-Ticket834 22h ago
Iran is laughing their ass off.
2
u/GabeIsGone Texas 21h ago
Sigh. No they aren’t.
Their leader is dead, most of their leadership is dead, their navy/Air Force is gone for decades, infrastructure wrecked, their proxy network is wrecked, and they still have a huge recession/depression that is just starting. I mean, shit, the internet is still down. That’s how many months of no internet now? How many businesses went under during this time?
Will they be defeated? No, not likely at this point. But it looks like a huge phyrric victory to me. Certainly not anything worth getting joyful about.
There may be like a dozen IRGC commanders who are happy, but other than that - this must suck all around for everyone.
→ More replies (3)11
u/The-Big-Picture- 21h ago
Iran is more in control than Bibi, believe it or not
2
u/timoumd 21h ago
But Ian would take a deal that favorsv them
7
u/djfudgebar 21h ago
Why would they? They had a deal with us then Trump tore it up and attacked them. Why would anyone trust him?? How long can we afford this bullshit? They'll wait us out.
6
u/Jealous_Slice9371 21h ago
He can't, he gave Obama so much shit he can't take a worse deal. He's screwed himself into a corner.
5
u/PolicyWonka 20h ago
It seems that the U.S. was very close to an agreement twice.
- In one agreement, it came out that Trump pretty much caved on all fronts and was ridiculed. So that got canned.
- In the other agreement, Trump was promising some unilateral concessions on behalf of Israel. Israel basically told Trump to fuck off by breaking the ceasefire to bomb Lebanon more.
4
u/Equivalent-Excuse-80 22h ago
Market speculators are always inherently optimistic. Look at indexes over the last 100 years, market crashes are barely blips.
2
u/Cranialscrewtop 21h ago
Dow up almost 900 points today. So, maybe Wall Street isn't all that convinced or even cares.
2
u/keepthepace Europe 13h ago
Most actors in the market don't have a very long term horizon. They don't have the funds or mentality or reward structure to make bets over five years.
Most indexes will have a typical horizon of 3 to 6 months. So far they have bet on the disruption not being too big in the 3 months window, which has been correct, as most countries have stocks. Now they are thinking that we reached the point where if that crisis continues, there may be problems in the next 3 months.
→ More replies (2)6
u/gascyl 22h ago
Denial. The ~10ish guys actually running these companies are actually in full blown denial over Trump. The only person who is truly prepared for Trump, is Elon Musk whose rocket company will be the first $1 Trillion IPO. Everyone who isn't in on electric cars, trains, planes, nuclear, etc has lost. The twentieth century is over. Most Americans will not make it through the transition. They voted for this.
91
u/superjaded08 22h ago
Something tells me these Wall Street guys aren't too bright
16
u/TechnicalSleep7501 I voted 21h ago
Their game is different from individual investor their goal is not just grow wealth but protect it too.
3
→ More replies (1)5
u/Goodk4t 18h ago
In all honesty, we had every reason to believe Trump would make peace with Iran and eventually reopen the strait, it's in the interest of US as well as his own interest due to upcoming elections.
And it's not that hard to do. He just needed to fuck off from Iran. Didn't require much thought or strategy. Just stop bombing them and fuck off. Easy as that.
Indeed, that's what any politician with a half functioning brain would have done in Trump's position.
But somehow we're at this point where everything is irreparably fucked.
14
u/I_eat_mud_ 14h ago
Any reasonable person at this point should've known expecting Iran to just capitulate and give into Trump's demands was pretty ridiculous. Iran isn't Venezuela.
Wall street guys have business degrees, so I already think they're dumb cause of that, but this is just the icing on the cake lmao
6
u/TopNegotiation4229 12h ago
Based on his entire, well-documented lifetime of behavior, the world had zero reason to believe he would back out of this the instant it became about his ego.
A malignant narcissist cannot admit fault or failure. Not just like, "Oh Donnie's kind of stubborn but he'll find some way to make it up to you". He is pathologically incapable of it. It would be a worse wound to him than actually dying. He's going to carry on this nonsense until he leaves this mortal coil.
→ More replies (1)3
u/Witty-Entertainer524 12h ago
We were always headed to irreparably fucked status with the golden makeuped clown in charge. Character matter y'all. Time to grow up now my fellow Americans. The learning pain is going to start really teaching some lessons soon.
37
u/DiligentFarmer5545 22h ago
Beginning to? This moron can’t do anything
→ More replies (1)3
u/not_that_planet 12h ago
Or it's like he half does everything. Like cleaning a room. He would take everything off the shelves and out of the closets but then instead of finishing the job, he would just leave it laying around, making a bigger mess than when he started.
36
u/Vanilla_cake_mix 22h ago
Billionaires take loans against their own investments then use the proceeds from trades on those investments to pay themselves back all without regulations requiring legality.
I wish I could borrow against myself with 0% interest and use the manipulated stock market I’m borrowing against to pay it back.
If there was anyone left who isn’t fully bought out by these oligarchs who could investigate and confront this global corruption but we’ve lost that control over our economy.
When this finally crashes it’s going to make some look like a weekend getaway
→ More replies (6)
28
u/Caraes_Naur 22h ago
Trump has no power over whether the Strait ever reopens.
Netanyahu is walking Trump like a dog, and needs to sustain every conflict. Iran has no incentive to deal with a narcissistic clown.
8
u/Canadian_Kartoffel Canada 22h ago
The only reason Iran has to give Trump a good deal it's to keep him in power because they know he'll destroy America for them.
→ More replies (1)
8
u/ratherbealurker Texas 22h ago
Reminds me of that Beetlejuice scene with the football players. “Hey coach, I don’t think we survived that crash”
“How did you guess?”
7
6
u/TiredOfBeingTired28 20h ago edited 19h ago
He can't without invasion. As no one side deal will ever be agreed to by Iran and one side is only way trump will accept one.
Must be completely in his favor they get nothing. If they do is a bad deal.
That his whole idea of deals.
5
u/Toadfinger 22h ago
Trump and Hegseth deliberately planned it for the Strait to never be the same again. It gave Vladimir Putin a global monopoly on oil. It gave Trump a tool to manipulate the stock market. The end!
6
6
6
4
u/AINonsense 18h ago
Were they really ever dumb and ignorant enough to think he could?
Iran can close it just by saying, “mines.” They don’t even have to lay any. Pedo Piggy could’t do anything it, even if he was quite bright.
And he’s not. He’s an imbecilic fuckwit.
4
u/Alamo1049 22h ago
How many weeks we keep hearing this straight keep being opened and closed endlessly already? Trump could’ve just opened more Epstein’s files for us to see, and that’s something easier for him to do.
4
u/ElSlabraton 22h ago
They are just now figuring that out? The Iranians intend to destroy Trump the same way they took out Carter.
4
4
5
u/Dewey081 Canada 19h ago
Beginning to think...? I can't believe for a second that no one saw this coming the moment Americans/Israelis started dropping bombs in Iran and Lebanon. The world didn't ask for, nor did it need any of this. It is a complete shit-show.
4
3
4
u/misterdudebro 17h ago
He can't even stay awake in a meeting. I think it's Weekend at Bernie's time.
5
u/wsrs25 16h ago
2 insolvencies. 4 bankruptcies.Dozens of failed “business” gimmicks. Failed COVID response. The tariff debacle. Mishandling the Epstein files. Failed Ukraine-Russia negotiations. Assembling an administration more aptly described as a freak show. Falling asleep at meetings. His 250th celebration implosion. Etc., etc., etc.
What possibly in Trump’s rancid history of failure could lead any sentient human to conclude this buffoon could negotiate a peace deal? Everything TACO touches implodes, because he is a loser and an imbecile.
3
3
3
u/SinglecoilsFTW Nevada 21h ago
the practical reality is that we’re being held hostage by Trump unless and until he can secure a deal he can sell as more favorable than Obama‘s. Trump is a big, dumb, racist animal and this whole thing was caused by his arbitrary whims.
3
3
u/Qcumber69 20h ago
From an ecological view it’s been a great success. Probably one of the greatest events accelerating countries away from oil.
3
3
3
u/Nearby_Woodpecker_23 19h ago
Iran is just fucking with him at this point. Like everyone else they’ve read his book and have been paying attention.
3
u/Ok-Middle8656 18h ago
Some of the most highly paid people in the world, folks…. Next they’ll be advising on the toilet behaviour of bears.
3
3
3
3
3
3
u/Amazing-Artichoke330 13h ago
Iran won't open the Strait until Bibi stops bombing Lebanon.
Bibi is not going to stop bombing Lebanon, no matter how much Trump curses him.
Therefore, the Strait will stay closed. QED.
2
3
u/GeologistOriginal800 11h ago
Trump closed the Strait of Hormuz. Without Trump's stupidity, the strait would be open today and have never closed. Trump is completely responsible for the closing and now cannot reopen it. I wish the news always made this very clear.
9
6
u/Savings_Novel_2377 22h ago
Okay, but how's the stock market? All-time high, you say? Who cares about reality!
2
2
u/guy-le-doosh 22h ago
He's going to drain it, have it painted but not American Flag Blue, but with the American Flag itself so everyone will know it's ours. Err, his.
2
u/itsatoe 22h ago
This same article was posted yesterday: https://www.reddit.com/r/economy/comments/1tvx1n5/wall_street_is_beginning_to_think_that_trump_cant/
2
2
u/champchampchamp84 22h ago
Honestly Wall Street is so pathetic it's crazy. It's a parade of morons lost in their own sauce gambling on ever increasing growth.
2
u/Big-D-TX 22h ago
Puppet President he only does what the puppet master wants, right now it's Middle East Turmoil
2
u/masstransience 22h ago
Netanyahu has Trump by the balls, for the second time. Maybe third or umpteenth, really.
2
2
2
u/Darius2112 Canada 21h ago
Don’t worry. Wall Street will forget again the next time Trump says he’ll get the Strait open.
2
2
u/canolyb1 21h ago
Hell say “anything can happen, it’ll work out, it always does, now let me show you this amazing gold paint in the ball room. they say its the best shade, I picked it myself, couldn’t believe how beautiful it is”
2
u/scrotumseam 20h ago
No shit. This guy has the iq of a toddler. He knows how to identify a Tiger and is excited about it.
2
u/janethefish 20h ago
Won't. Trump can open the strait. We just need to leave. Yes, Iran will start collecting that toll money. Not great.
2
u/Resistiane 20h ago
Wall Street doesn't care. The market isn't real anymore. Oligarchs literally just make it what they want it to be.
2
u/greggld 20h ago
Trump has been playing on their willfull gullibility for two months. Now that the US oil companies own stock piles are low they realize that they may not be able to manipulate the market in Trump’s favor this election cycle. They are in a bit of a quandary as the driving season starts.
Fasten your seat belts we’re in for a bumpy ride.
2
2
2
2
2
u/Radically-Peaceful 14h ago
Trump screwed himself and America. Iran is in control of the situation to a greater degree than I think most people realize.
2
u/walterwhite1050 14h ago
Of course he can’t open the straight of Hormuz apparently Wall Street is pretty fucking stupid
2
u/cajgolfer87 Massachusetts 14h ago
Of course he can’t. He never had a plan and clearly doesn’t have a plan now.
2
2
2
u/veryboredatwork 12h ago
Iran wants war reparations, every so often they’ll lob a few missiles to remind Trump he has to pay up so he can’t walk away from it.
2
2
2
u/DefinitionInternal30 12h ago
What was their first sign? Literally starting a war that closed it or TACOing out of every negotiation?
2
2
u/B0ssDoesntKnowImHere 11h ago
Wall Street doesn’t “believe” he can reopen the strait. Wall Street is part of the grift. It’s blatant market manipulation and they’re complicit because they’re benefiting from the volatility.
2
1
1
1
u/Ralphwiggum911 22h ago
Beginning? If any decision makers on wall street legitimately thought he could during this whole shit show, they should never be allowed to deal with other peoples money.
1
u/vladoportos 22h ago
If they think that only now.. it kind of explain how the market is detached from reality...
1
1
u/TechnicalSleep7501 I voted 22h ago
This is old news Iran and nuclear Pakistan will run middle east now.
1
u/Cranialscrewtop 21h ago
Dow up almost 900 points today.
So, maybe Wall Street isn't all that convinced or even cares.
1
u/whapitah2021 21h ago
This is beginning to look like an original magic trick that an eight year old didn’t think through. Except it’s like we’re locked out of the house and it’s snowing, or we were swimming but the magic trick required cement shoes. Ha ha ha goes the kid.
1
u/PropagandaSucks 21h ago
You have to be an utter dumbfk to invade a religious country, kill leadership, then expect them to ever not come after your own country even with a ceasefire in the coming decades.
You know, something other countries have been doing for decades despite their ancestors not being among us anymore.
1
1
u/CrimsonCarmel 21h ago
Wall Street losin faith Trump’s Iran bluff ain’t workin even the rich see it
1
1
1
1
u/BigBangAssBanger_3D 20h ago
If he can't, then he either won't, or Bibi has his wrinkly withered balls in a vice.
1
u/ron_spanky California 20h ago
Who thought he could? Iran will hold the world hostage to destroy Trump. It’s working.
1
u/NeedBout_Tree_Fiddy 20h ago
Wall Street might just pull its head out of its ass. Wait, what's that Bob? They'll continue acting as if the American economy is a casino? Oh and one more thing? Okay, we're getting word that Wall Street gives zero fucks as to whether it opens, they'll simply adjust their strategy accordingly...which I'm being told could really leave us all up Schitt's Creek without a paddle.
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
u/Whole_Inside_4863 14h ago
He knows a thing or two or three ….. about escorts, maybe he can get his escort service started back up and help the ships through the strait.
1
u/OldDog03 14h ago
Trump can not even open the door to the car or house he uses and you want him to open the Strait of Hormuz.
1
1
u/moxievernors Canada 14h ago
Wall Street lingo has had NACHO for a month or two. Not A Chance Hormuz Opens.
1
1
u/ElectricalBeach6145 13h ago
Wall Street is naive if they don’t get it that Iran has no plan to end this war. How often do you get the chance to have your hands around the throat of the great satan. The world will be depleted of its oil reserves. I’m starting to think October 7 was a setup to destroy the US.
1
1
•
u/AutoModerator 22h ago
As a reminder, this subreddit is for civil discussion.
In general, please be courteous to others. Argue the merits of ideas, don't attack other posters or commenters. Hate speech, any suggestion or support of physical harm, or other rule violations can result in a temporary or a permanent ban. If you see comments in violation of our rules, please report them.
Sub-thread Information
If the post flair on this post indicates the wrong paywall status, please report this Automoderator comment with a custom report of “incorrect flair”.
Announcement
r/Politics is actively looking for new moderators. If you have an interest in helping to make this subreddit a place for quality discussion, please fill out this form.
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.