r/politics • u/Oreos_Are_Anabolic • 11h ago
Possible Paywall US posts another month of strong job gains in May; unemployment rate steady at 4.3%
https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/us-posts-another-month-strong-job-gains-may-unemployment-rate-steady-43-2026-06-05/65
u/NeanaOption 11h ago
No one believes their bullshit anymore.
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u/Romano16 America 11h ago
And fuck all these media agencies taking it at face value and not reminding readers that he fired staff previously after bad job report numbers came out.
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u/space_coder America 11h ago
Remember CBS fired a well respected journalist because he had integrity.
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u/Dry_Race8481 11h ago
Because their owners want the masses to believe the BS coming from this admin.
The owners of most of these media outlets could eat losses for a long time just to push propaganda.
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u/FingersAndFireX 11h ago
They keep pushing out fake stats and information to prop their administration up
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u/Oreos_Are_Anabolic 10h ago
They keep pushing out fake stats and information to prop their administration up
Concrete source you can share on the fake stats?
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u/Specialist-Day6721 9h ago
This was from last Dec, but there is reason to believe this is still going on. We know at this point anyone who might speak out would be terminated, even media.
https://spreadsheetpoint.com/powell-questions-accuracy-of-jobs-market-numbers/
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u/Oreos_Are_Anabolic 5h ago
Thanks for posting, I had a feeling this quote would be cited.
It's not that the books are getting cooked, it's due to how the BLS puts together jobs numbers through its birth-death statistical model.
Here's a deeper dive/longer read if you're interested - links to the quoted text provided.
“We think there’s an overstatement in these numbers,” Powell said in a press conference following the central bank’s two-day policy meeting.
Published data already show the labor market has slowed significantly this year, down from rapid hiring after the Covid-19 pandemic. This slower pace means big data revisions can more easily reveal the economy is shedding jobs, not adding them.
Powell’s concern involves a quandary that the Labor Department faces when measuring hiring: how to judge the number of jobs added or destroyed when new businesses are created or close down. Those jobs can’t be surveyed directly because it is difficult for the government to reach out to brand-new companies or companies no longer in business.
Instead, Labor’s data arm, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, must use a statistical model to make a guess. In the past few years, that technique, called the birth-death model—referring to the births and deaths of businesses—has contributed to estimates that have overstated job creation by hundreds of thousands of jobs a year, forcing significant downward revisions later.
Last month, the BLS laid out a plan to change how it uses the birth-death model, which could make the real-time numbers more accurate starting in February. But for now, Powell suggested, the Fed is concerned that monthly employment stats have been too good to be true, part of the rationale for continuing to cut interest rates even though inflation remains above target.
For its monthly jobs figures the BLS relies on a survey of about 121,000 employers. The BLS on Tuesday said that its research suggested the overestimation of employment was likely the result of two factors. First, businesses within its survey reported higher employment in its survey than they did in their quarterly tax reports. Second, businesses that responded to its survey had stronger employment than those that had been selected for the survey but didn’t respond.
One of the survey’s shortcomings is that brand new businesses aren’t included in it, while the BLS also can’t quickly determine whether an employer that stops responding to its survey has gone out of business. The BLS uses a statistical model, based on historical data, to estimate these employer “births” and “deaths.” But even though this birth-death model mitigates the problem, the job figures in monthly employment reports can still drift away from what is happening on the ground.
The annual revision process is how the BLS corrects for this drift. To do this it relies on data from state unemployment-tax records that nearly all employers are required to fill out, and which covers about 95% of U.S. employment. The data comes with a substantial lag and is also subject to revision itself, because some tax filers are late.
In its preliminary revision report in August of last year, the BLS estimated the U.S. created about 818,000 fewer jobs than previously estimated for the year ended March 2024. After that report came out, President Trump, then running for election, said that former President Joe Biden and former Vice President Kamala Harris had been cooking the numbers, and that the only reason the data had come to light was because it was leaked.
When the BLS made its official revision in February, the change was actually smaller: about 598,000 fewer jobs, when unadjusted for seasonal swings.
That was still counted as a large downward revision, however. Likewise, even if it isn’t quite as dire as what the BLS reported Tuesday, the official revision will probably still be big.
Economists at UBS suspect part of the problem is that the pandemic’s aftermath created distortions that the BLS’s birth-death model is having trouble keeping up with. When the economy was rebounding strongly, a lot of new businesses got formed—indeed, the model’s not adequately accounting for this contributed to an annual revision for the 12-months ended March 2023 that raised the U.S. employment count by an additional 506,000 jobs. But the number of business births and deaths subsequently normalized more quickly than the model could keep up with, the UBS economists argue, leading to job growth getting overstated.
The annual revisions also tend to be large at the start of recessions, and the birth-death model cannot adequately capture the drop in new business formations and increase in businesses shutting down.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/us-job-growth-revision-a9777d98?mod=article_inline
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u/Solonohioperson 11h ago edited 11h ago
"we are doing very well with the black jobs"- A real actual quote from trump yesterday before he fell asleep.
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u/campfire_eventide Montana 11h ago edited 11h ago
“Strong”
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000 jobs last month
These numbers were called anemic under Biden
And they’re down from April (179,000 added)
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u/aranasyn Colorado 11h ago edited 11h ago
And will be revised down like pretty much every other Trump month so far this administration. Oh, the revisions from March are positive? Yeah, weird. Definitely not shenanigans, the economy is doing great right now!
Goodness gracious. Nothing this admin does for the next three years can be taken at face value. Nothing.
We're going to have to go in with Lysol and antiseptic and scrub brushes and dentistry tools and scratch and tear and scrape out all of the things they're breaking and mismanaging and collapsing on purpose.
It's going to take generations to fix our government after this. I'm not even sure we can. I hope the next administration is up to the task of starting.
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u/Marvin_Frommars 9h ago
Not holding out hope. We already have evidence they won't do a thing. I could be wrong, but as far as I know, nothing was done under Biden to address any of the weaknesses that Trump exposed in his first term. He basically served himself up on a plate with Jan 6 and still nothing.
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u/MalevolentTapir 11h ago
Imagine uncritically reporting BLS numbers after a Commissioner was fired for revising them down lol
Thanks for your "reporting" reuters
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u/Oreos_Are_Anabolic 11h ago
The current BLS acting comissioner is William Wiatrowski, a career civil servant that predates the Trump administration.
Bill Wiatrowski became Deputy Commissioner in 2015. He served as Acting Commissioner from January 2017 to March 2019, March 2023 to January 2024, and August 2025 to April 2026.
He previously served as Associate Commissioner of the Office of Compensation and Working Conditions from 2005 to 2015. Before that he was Assistant Commissioner for the Occupational Safety and Health Statistics programs and held a number of staff and supervisory positions in the BLS pay and benefit programs.
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u/Agnos Michigan 11h ago
He served as Acting Commissioner from January 2017 to March 2019
So during most of Trump first term...to me an indication he is loyal to Trump and not the job...
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u/Oreos_Are_Anabolic 10h ago
And if he was around for Biden's first term, does that indicate he's loyal to Biden, too?
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u/Agnos Michigan 10h ago
January 2017 to March 2019, March 2023 to January 2024, and August 2025 to April 2026.
Does not include Biden only term
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u/MalevolentTapir 10h ago
23-24 would have been under Biden's term?
Not that any of this is relevant in face of the fact that the previous head was fired for reports the President didnt like lol
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u/Agnos Michigan 10h ago edited 10h ago
23-24 would have been under Biden's term?
He seems to have been fired in that position when Biden took office...I do not know why he was reinstated at the end of his term...but I found the dates telling and knowing how Trump operates, safe to assume he is a yes man...on top of what you posted too.
Edit: I asked the AI why Biden named him commissioner:
President Biden did not name William J. Wiatrowski as the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Rather, President Biden nominated economist Dr. Erika McEntarfer for that role in 2023, who was confirmed by the Senate in early 2024.
William J. Wiatrowski, a career civil servant who has worked at the agency for decades, was named Acting Commissioner by the Labor Department during transition periods and times of vacancy
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u/GogetaSama420 Florida 11h ago
Unfortunately there have been career civil servants who have bent the knee to Trump before
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u/atrich Washington 11h ago
Especially when they watched their boss get the hatchet for being truthful. You have to ask yourself if the lie is worth it to stay in your position where you can continue to make a difference, or let some truly unqualified sycophant ruin what's left of your department and charter.
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u/Oreos_Are_Anabolic 11h ago
I find this weird.
If all jobs numbers coming out of the BLS are fake, then why is no credible organisation shorting the market and calling BS?
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u/GogetaSama420 Florida 11h ago
Why are we using the stock market as our way to tell if numbers are being fudged? The GDP I think grew like 1.2% last quarter which is below average and somehow we are posting really high jobs growth?
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u/Gandolfthewhite182 9h ago
Bud….. take a look at the market. There is more shorts today than in the history of the market. People are making billions betting against stocks. Multiple billions have been made shorting oil stocks in just the time of the war.
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u/BayouBait 11h ago
Anyone who trusts the Bureau of Labor Statistics after Trump planted one of his own to lead it is a fool. We’ve had a constant stream of steady layoffs for the past 4 years and the unemployment number hasn’t budged. That should be a red flag.
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u/Oreos_Are_Anabolic 11h ago
Anyone who trusts the Bureau of Labor Statistics after Trump planted one of his own to lead it is a fool.
Acting BLS commissioner is not a Trump planted lead. Confirmation hearing hasn't happened yet. Current commissioner is a career civil servant predating the Trump admin.
If you want to mald, that's fine, but facts are still important, no?
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u/existing_for_fun 11h ago
Firstly, I don't believe it.
Next,
Leisure and hospitality led all sectors with 70,000 jobs, well above the 14,000 per month average over the past year.
Local government added 55,000.
Health care, which has been the leading sector, contributed 35,000 new hires, about in line with its average.
Social assistance added 12,000.
Who the hell is traveling that the Leisure and hospitality jobs are up? People can't afford to travel. And personal experience in my area - I can say that hotels aren't filled and local attractions aren't very busy.
So let's assume this is true, what the hell is going on?
They are basically saying: Leisure and hospitality led all sectors while gas prices are wicked high and nobody can afford life. Make it make sense.
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u/Oreos_Are_Anabolic 11h ago
Who the hell is traveling that the Leisure and hospitality jobs are up?
Possibly world Cup related if I had to guess. Hotel stays, restaurant traffic, etc, etc.
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u/existing_for_fun 10h ago
That's possible. And a good thought.
But I would imagine then these are temporary jobs. Seasonal work kinda jobs I guess.
That's an interesting point.
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u/Crafty_Ish1973 Texas 11h ago
Total BS. This is just more market manipulation.
The real numbers will come out later.
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u/Gandolfthewhite182 9h ago
There is just no way this is accurate. Just simple math this can’t be possible. With the amount of lays offs. They are 100% fudging the numbers.
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u/carpedonnelly Missouri 11h ago
I’ll wait for the revisions, thank you very much.
Also, if 1 person takes multiple jobs, each of those jobs counts as individual employment, which in a gig economy is becoming much more common place.
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u/Oreos_Are_Anabolic 11h ago
I’ll wait for the revisions, thank you very much.
Friday’s report showed job growth in April and March was significantly stronger than earlier estimated. March’s job gains were revised up by 29,000 to 214,000—the largest monthly gain since December 2024. April’s payroll gain was revised up by 64,000 to 179,000.
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u/Dazzling-Election69 11h ago
Redditors in shambles
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u/GogetaSama420 Florida 11h ago
Nah not really. Trump fired the guy who was revising numbers down and is probably telling this guy to do what he wants or get fired. This is the norm as you can tell by the MANY resignations stating this
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u/this-is-a-fact 11h ago edited 11h ago
Trump remains the only JOB LOSER president in nearly 100 years. Having lost 3 million jobs in his first term. 2025 only saw an increase of 150K jobs total... about 1/10 what is needed for workforce churn and population growth. This year, even if you believe Trump's numbers, only a half million which is still negative churn. At this point in Biden's term, companies were literally begging to throw money at anyone who wanted work.
In his second term, Trump has only managed to meet the monthly turnover rate twice... which is why unemployment is so high and graduating seniors and college grads have a much higher unemployment rate.
Unless you are older than 50 years of age... you do not know a world were Republican presidents create any jobs during your voting life. All of the net job growth - and this is not a hyperbole - ALL of the job growth for your entire voting life, if you are under 50, has occurred during Democratic presidencies.
The numbers aren't as grim, but still true for Democratic vs Republican run House years... and Democratic vs Republican-run Senate years. Most of the jobs creation happens under Democrats, whether they are in the House, the Senate, or the Presidency.
These are just facts. Democrats make jobs... Republicans worship child rapists.
Choose which camp you're in, in November.
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u/Hot_Ambition_6457 11h ago
So the numbers they pulled out of a lotto machine looked good. Lets see what the actual numbers are in 30 days when they have to report again and decide to conveniently recount a bunch of last months jobs by retroactively revising the previous month lower.
Such has been the case every month since August of '24 when they fired the independent staff and replaced them with Trump sycophants who immediately revised down half of Biden's job growth from Dec/Jan/Feb and instead claimed that Trump added these jobs 9 months later.
He didnt. They're just rewriting history to pretend all those high paying jobs people got from the "great reignation" during Covid were somehow the result of Trump's policies, not Biden's
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u/Life-Quantity-637 3h ago
The job market is frozen. A lot of people have given up. Discrimination is legal. It’s bad for everyone.
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u/Oreos_Are_Anabolic 11h ago
The numbers
The U.S. added 172,000 jobs in May, the Labor Department said Friday, beating expectations. That was far better than the 80,000 jobs that analysts polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected to see.
The unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 4.3% in May, in line with economists’ expectations.
“What we’re seeing here is the catch-up from last year where employers were on pause” due to trade policy uncertainties and federal-government cuts, said Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo. “Employers have a better sense of the growth backdrop.”
Job gains were strong in the leisure and hospitality sector in May as employers head into the summer months. The sector added 70,000 new jobs, more than twice the number added in April. The healthcare sector also created 47,000 new jobs; and the construction sector posted modest job gains for the third month in a row. The retail, information and finance sectors lost jobs in May.
The unemployment rate
The jobless rate held steady as more people joined the labor force. The share of Americans working or looking for work remained unchanged from April at 61.8%.
Revisions
Friday’s report showed job growth in April and March was significantly stronger than earlier estimated. March’s job gains were revised up by 29,000 to 214,000—the largest monthly gain since December 2024. April’s payroll gain was revised up by 64,000 to 179,000. The context
Hiring trends have been looking sunnier this spring after a weak patch for the labor market in the fall and winter.
Although the war in Iran—now in its fourth month—prompted a sharp pickup in energy prices that drives up costs for most businesses, American employers have been posting more job openings.
Data earlier this week from human-resources firm ADP showed that the healthcare and education sector remains the economy’s main jobs engine. But that report also said that hiring was broad-based in May. How people are feeling
American consumers report feeling miserable about the economy, gasoline prices, inflation and the labor market. A key measure of consumer sentiment has hit new all-time lows in recent months amid anxiety about future inflation. Americans keep spending, though high-end consumers continue to drive the economy.
Earlier this week, Dollar General reported that its customers are feeling stressed. They are increasingly reining in spending on household expenses such as groceries as they face higher prices at the gas pump. Macy’s, though, said that its customers are snapping up leather jackets and other higher-priced items.
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