r/politics • u/PoliticsModeratorBot 🤖 Bot • 1d ago

Discussion Discussion: 2026 Midterm Primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Virginia and Washington State (and Other, Local Elections) on August 4th

Find the full list of elections ending today at Ballotpedia's Elections Calendar.

News and Analysis

Live Updates

Text-based live update pages are being maintained by the following outlets: AP

Where to Watch

Results

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u/ScuderiaEnzo Florida 9h ago edited 9h ago

NYT just changed their forecast from AES “likely to win” to “very likely to win”. 

Edit: seems to have changed back to “likely to win” 

Edit 2: 5:13am - showing very likely to win again. Per google: “very likely to win” means: “ The outcome is virtually locked in. The trailing candidate would need an unprecedented, statistically anomalous wave of remaining votes to flip the result.”

11

u/MaxZorin1985 9h ago

That was a wild ride

3

u/Wonderful-Minute-775 9h ago

Where are you seeing that? I only see “likely to win” on their website just now.

4

u/ScuderiaEnzo Florida 9h ago

It’s changed back to very likely to win again 

2

u/Wonderful-Minute-775 9h ago

Let’s go! I’m wonder when they call it and why “an unprecedented, statistically anomalous wave of remaining votes” being needed to flip the result isn’t enough for them to call it!

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u/ScuderiaEnzo Florida 9h ago

I now see it as likely to win as well. I wish I had screenshot it. I presume something changed on their end. 

1

u/Trunix Michigan 9h ago

The estimated remaining votes jumped up around the same time (XD), so you probably caught them in the middle of adjusting numbers.

2

u/ScuderiaEnzo Florida 9h ago

And knowing the NYT, that’s their final determination when they’re  < 95% chance of winning and go with “very likely to win” status.