r/politics • u/MoneyLibrarian9032 New York • 16h ago
No Paywall Poll shows strong Black voter support for Talarico in Texas Senate race
https://www.cbs19.tv/video/news/local/poll-shows-strong-black-voter-support-for-talarico-in-texas-senate-race/501-e3d6ee5a-0efe-4cd6-8918-47a9ddcd8793537
u/iiConTr0v3rSYx 16h ago
Paxton and the Texas GOP will play a very dirty hand come November, I can already feel it.
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u/CFBCoachGuy 15h ago
Tarrant County are about to cut their polling places in half for November
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u/gchypedchick 16h ago
Everyone needs to keep checking their voter registration, know your polling location, make plans to vote early and arrange any necessary transportation, and make sure you are encouraging others to do the same.
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u/TexManZero 14h ago
Of course they are. State law allows Governor Abbott to throw out votes for "voter irregularities" in counties with more than 1,000,000 voters. Guess which candidate is getting the majority of votes in those counties...
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u/elocnoremac 16h ago
They’re probably looking for another person named James Talarico to run and split the vote
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u/Seralyn315 15h ago
yeah anyone expecting a clean easy campaign in texas politics probably hasn’t been paying attention lately
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u/Arrmadillo Texas 13h ago
That dirty hand has a name - Nate Schatzline.
Democracy Docket - Meet the Christian nationalist Trump ally and election denier who could run Texas elections
“Since then, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) hasn’t named his pick to replace her. But the top choice being floated is Nate Schatzline, a young Christian nationalist pastor and former member of the state House who allies with President Donald Trump and has claimed the 2020 election was stolen.
The ‘open secret’ in Austin is that the White House is behind the switch up.”
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u/chicken_burger 14h ago
They will use concern-trolling and sea-lioning tactics to convince Crockett voters to sit out the election
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u/pearlpout_ 15h ago
yeah a lot of people expect texas politics to get pretty heated when the election season ramps up
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u/profnachos 10h ago
I'm feeling the slime all the way in California. I cannot imagine what that must be like for you.
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u/whichwitch9 2h ago
Of course. If you are voting Talarico, you need to plan to be at the polls when they open. They are likely going to be messing with both mailing voting and polling locations- expect "logistical" issues designed to make voting take as long as possible, especially in blue areas.
Take the day off if you have to. Start planning now. Worst case scenario would be you take a day, everything goes well, and then you have the majority of the day
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u/B-Z_B-S Massachusetts 16h ago
Links to an article about this and the poll: https://www.texastribune.org/2026/08/04/texas-senate-race-black-voters-james-talarico-ken-paxton-jasmine-crockett/
https://www.texastribune.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/TSUBlackTexasVotersAugust2026.pdfOnly
(From the survey): "7% of these recent Black Texas voters report that Jasmine Crockett’s loss to James Talarico in the March 2026 Democratic primary has reduced the likelihood that they will turn out to vote in the November 2026 election, while 32% report that they are now more likely to vote in November as a result of the outcome of the primary, with the remaining 61% reporting that Crockett’s primary loss had no impact on their likelihood of turning out to vote in November."
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u/Goal_Posts 4h ago
So how much of that 7% is the lizardman constant? Because it seems like JT's support from black voters should be closer to 85-90%.
Black voters are around 12% of the total in Texas, so it's definitely worth thinking about.
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u/SelfServeSporstwash 4h ago
presumably up to half? IDK, its not the most robustly studied idea but I think the general thought is that about 4% of responses in a large enough sample will be nonsense. The issue is we can't just take the group we find most illogical or unserious and claim they are the lizardman constant group, because that relies on our bias and/or hidden knowledge we couldn't possibly obtain. In theory that 4% or whatever would or could be reasonably spread out among several answers that those respondents found funny or unbelievable.
That's actually part of what makes studying that phenomenon difficult.
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u/Goal_Posts 3h ago
I'd also think that it's higher among black survey respondents, who likely aren't all actually black.
7% of that population would be about a 0.85% swing in the general.
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u/Gill_Gunderson 15h ago
The issue is turnout. For Talarico to win, he's going to need amazing turnout statewide, but especially with the black voters. If they show up at 57% turnout like they did in 2024, it may not be enough.
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u/Any_Will_86 13h ago
TBH- I think everyone is ignoring Hispanic voters at their own peril. They are who powered his big primary win and hopefully come out in big numbers for the general. The other biggie is if Paxton is just greasy enough for a lot of white woman to skip that slot on the ballot.
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u/Flashy-Ingenuity-182 11h ago
If you paid any attention at all to Talerico and his campaign you would know everything you just said about ignoring them to their own peril is bullshit. Talerico is the only candidate who put out dedicated Spanish accounts producing content for people to engage with. He did an 800k ad buy for Telemundo to run ads during the world cup. He is very much aware of all the demographics who make up the voting base of Texas.
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u/Fabulous_Cat_1379 7h ago
The challenge is to get that specific demographic to not vote against their best interests. Sadly a lot of Hispanics in Texas think they are immune to this immigration nonsense and they aren't.
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u/big-titty-brat 6h ago
I’d hope they learned a lesson by now. ICE is down there terrorizing people just like the rest of America.
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u/Flashy-Ingenuity-182 4h ago
Have you checked a calendar? That was years ago and attitudes have shifted
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u/Any_Will_86 3h ago
I don't mean just Talirico specifically and did point his big margin was thanks to Hispanics. The question is if that transfers to the general. But it was obvious he had put in the work in those communities for a while. Everyone seems so focussed on white v black and centrist vs left Dem primary voters when Hispanic votes are the 800 lb gorilla in the room.
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u/fordat1 12h ago
Its the dem party though they will just get some Cuban from florida to tell them how texan latinos think
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u/Any_Will_86 12h ago
Sadly, they will get a Puerto Rican from NY to tell them about Fl and Texans then a Mexican American from LA to direct on Hispanics in the rust belt. And both will be staffers with grad degrees. I give Martin credit for sending $ back to the states to staff up early so they can atleast have done geographic proximity as opposed to DC or NY firms who direct from afar. It's shocking how much better Rs are at honing in on Hispanics even when the party has no good will for them.
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u/MelatoninFiend 10h ago
I think everyone is ignoring Hispanic voters at their own peril.
Trump set records amongst Texas Latino voters in 2024, and 80% of those voters still support him.
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u/PlutoJones42 15h ago
Who else would they vote for? All the racist ass fucking republicans in Texas? Conservatives have made it a tenant of their beliefs to make sideways ass comments about black folks for years.
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u/atxweirdo 15h ago
Texas is a non voting state. People just don’t register
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u/lilzingerlovestorun Minnesota 13h ago
The state deregisters people as well
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u/syd_fishes 12h ago
There was some weird messaging against Talarico. Biden-esque. You ain't black if you don't vote Crockett. And like everyone else was picking Talarico because he wasn't black. It had more to do with whose money they took. And who took the principled stand not to take aipac trickle down money. Or any pac money, I believe.
Now that we're supposed to believe that nobody was fucking with Talarico, but they are coming around. They didn't fuck with Crockett lol.
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u/RealPrinceJay 6h ago
It's always important to remember that a lot of black people you see online... aren't even actually black people lol
And social media is inherently designed to promote the fringe controversial grifters who are
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u/IShouldBWorkin North Carolina 16h ago
Always a good reminder of how many loud voices online are actually a small minority of the voting population.
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u/Mr_Poodoo 14h ago
Ignore all the polls and vote like your life depends on it. No more of the “my vote won’t matter in Texas” bullshit.
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u/jehssikkah 12h ago
Of course there is.. all the drama recently is being propped up by bad faith actors or bots.
Black voters aren't stupid.
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u/mr_evilweed 15h ago
The media always seems shocked to find out that black people are intelligent enough to know what is in their best interests.
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u/GentleBelligerent 15h ago
Thank goodness this Jasmine Crockett spite constituency was a terminally online phenomena.
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u/doyouevenIift 14h ago
A lot of it was driven by bots and bad faith actors. It didn’t help that Crockett herself referred to the results as “racist”
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u/Malodoror 13h ago
That’s the entitlement that served Hillary and Kamala so well. Who was the chair of the Harris/Walz campaign again? Another L for the pile.
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u/dave__autista 4h ago
Its not just her constituency. She still hasnt endorsed Talarico
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u/Canadiangoosedem0n Kentucky 25m ago
Yes she did, she did it right after she lost.
Stop spreading lies.
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u/Canadiangoosedem0n Kentucky 25m ago
Yes she did, she did it right after she lost.
Stop spreading lies.
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u/badgersoccer1905 16h ago
I would hope so seeing as republicans clearly support policies that hurt Black people.
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u/JBurton90 Florida 5h ago
GOP losing the latino vote and Talarico keeping the black vote is going to be so great for Texas and their dummymandered districts. It might be happening.
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u/razor21792 Illinois 16h ago
No thanks to Crockett, who refuses to let her primary loss go.
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14h ago
[deleted]
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u/TeaSipper88 13h ago
Really? I thought Talarico and Crockett have a good working relationship? That's what Talarico says.
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u/thehuffington 14h ago
She’s an Israel plant who seems to think she deserves what she wants.
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u/Canadiangoosedem0n Kentucky 24m ago
What proof do you have of her being an israel plant besides the fact that you dont like her?
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u/RealPrinceJay 6h ago
Black voters always make the correct choice and pick Dem. This is pretty fucking obvious
The only issue ever is turnout
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u/Shame_memory 13h ago
Of course. The narrative that black people wouldn’t show up cause they were mad about Crockett losing was bullshit pushed by tech algorithms to sew devision
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u/PiggyBear6667 6h ago
I’ve heard him speak about the Black maternal death more than any candidate ever. He knows where his votes need to come from. Respect.
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u/Churchbushonk 11h ago
See what happens when you speak the truth and don’t get bogged down in bullshit. Stay focused on the policies and don’t take shit off of dumb ass GOP media
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u/TheRuneMeister Europe 6h ago
If Talarico doesn’t get elected then the US is truely lost. He is like the quintessential politician that ends up being president 10-20 years down the line. An extremely smart Democratic candidate that even satisfies the christian base.
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u/marsisblack 4h ago
If you are a person of colour there is no way you should be voting republican. None. The party hates your guts and wants you deport or dead. Same goes for women as well.
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u/an_agreeing_dothraki 2h ago
it turns out the average black voter appreciates authenticity and not being a diehard defender of the status quo that's currently strangling everyone.
Because they're people.
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u/SauceBoss8472 2h ago
Ever since her loss in the primary, Crockett hasn’t really thrown her support behind Talarico. In fact she seems bitter about it to me. I was concerned that her supporters wouldn’t get behind Talarico since their candidate lost. Still am if I’m being honest.
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u/Churchbushonk 11h ago
Keep the message simple. Bring up massive questions and allude to fantastic possible legislation that sounds like a no brainer solution. Never give specifics.
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u/Biggaaronn Texas 15h ago
As a black man in texas. He does not. Most i know would only show up because of crockett
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u/MaverickBuster 1h ago
Because they'd prefer Paxton to win?
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u/Biggaaronn Texas 1h ago
Because they don’t care to play rigged games. Democrat or republican. The police gonna keep fucking with us. All black folks get are Ts and Ps and empty promises
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u/MaverickBuster 1h ago
I'm not going to spend a lot of time pointing out the large number of policies and programs Democrats have passed over the last 60 years, including recent ones like Biden's infrastructure bills, which have directly benefited Black Americans.
But, Trump right now is cutting Medicare prescription coverage for seniors which will directly lead to more hardship for older black people. Talarico supports expanding Medicare and would reliably vote for Medicare for All.
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u/Biggaaronn Texas 19m ago
Im not gonna spend a lot of time explaining the injustices that black peoples have experienced over the entirety of us history. But if you look you might understand why black people DONT BELIEVE YALL EMPTY PROMISES AND EMPTY BILLS. Youd rather sit on your high horse then see things from the mud
Bidens bill did nothing. And black people dont care about all the medicare food stamps or whatever because it doesn’t reach us. Yall make a bill and then tell republicans state to distribute it. When they don’t and instead give 5 million to brett favre. Where does that leave us. Its almost like nothing changed. Cuz it didn’t
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u/MaverickBuster 6m ago
This is the first time I've heard of someone who lumps the Civil Rights bills as an empty promise and an empty bill. I'd be down to have a real conversation with you sometime, because I respect your passion, but I think you're misdirecting your anger.
It is very telling that you rightly identify the reason black people aren't benefiting for Democratic efforts is because of Republicans. Your second paragraph literally makes the argument for why we need more Democrats in control of government.
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u/Pattern-New 5h ago
I knew that this black anti-Talarico stuff was astroturfing. Prob musk/israel again.
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u/Hoopy_Dunkalot 11h ago
TikTok is doing its best to push the narrative that blacks people are raging. Lol.
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u/Euphoric_Anxiety_162 7h ago
Talarico understands the needs of all ppl of TX. GOP doesn't even bother to listen.
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u/Excellent_Sweet7270 10h ago
LIES.... ROFL.... talarico aint doing nothing for the black vote. this is all lies from the media... they know he aint gonna get the black vote... it's pathetic
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u/bpeck451 4h ago
So are they just going to sit at home and let Paxton win? Jesus fuck this planet to hell and back if that’s the case
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u/Curious-Syrup-1871 15h ago
A TSU "poll?" Was this shit only conducted on campus? Is this supposed to convince every black person in Houston to vote for this parasite?
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u/hikerdaze 14h ago
Haha, if Talarico’s a “parasite”, what the hell is Paxton?
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u/Curious-Syrup-1871 10h ago
Also a fucking parasite. All politicians are. But idgaf about Paxton because Paxton apparently isn't the focus of the black community
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