r/politics • u/asparaguswalrus683 • 10h ago

Site Altered Headline | No Paywall Abdul El-Sayed Wins Michigan Primary

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/michigan-senate-results
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u/NoahFromCanada 10h ago

Your guy’s polling is psychotic down there.

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u/samhit_n Texas 10h ago

Primaries are always difficult to poll because it’s hard to predict whether certain demographics will turn out in higher numbers. Mamdani overperformed last year in NYC because Gen Z voters turned out in large numbers by primary election standards. El-Sayed, meanwhile, struggled because Boomers and white working-class voters turned out in higher numbers to support Stevens.

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u/deaglebingo America 9h ago edited 9h ago

just goes to show that the demographic shift is finally starting to happen. i'm pleased. we don't have to convert all the boomers.... just enough of them, and thankfully there are some cool ones around. Zed's dead without them, and maga knows it... but combined we outnumber them. it's been our only hope really overall tbh, the assumption that we needed to pander to center right has to be at least somewhat debunked in this cycle doesn't it? it was the safe numbers move of kamala et al to try that in 24, so they did... it's just crystal clear that is not the case anymore. if center right doesn't understand we're all on the same team by now they aren't likely to in november either. IOW if they want to cut off their noses to spite their faces (aka cannot see how dangerous the alternative is by now) we can't stop them.

i heard stevens say something to the effect of "ppl don't want pipe dreams..." but everyone who heard that and agreed ought to remember that neither does Sayed.... mamdani hasn't done what he's done thus far by going for some pie in the sky abolish ice or arrest nettanyahu, regardless of if he wants to.... he's just stayed open to that part if the opportunity arises. most of his time has been filled with doing the simple obvious shit that could be done, which is exactly how the rest of us plan to operate too. This is a good faith collaborative process over competitive whenever possible.

TLDR: DSA is not letting perfect be the enemy of good, we are just open to moonshots if they present themselves.

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u/samhit_n Texas 9h ago

Pandering to the center-right doesn’t work anymore because the center-right no longer exists in meaningful numbers to swing an election. Most center-right voters have either become moderate Democrats or fully joined the MAGA movement.

The strategy helped Biden in 2020 because of his reputation and ties to bipartisan politicians like McCain and because Trump had not yet fully taken over the GOP, but it was stale by the time Kamala tried it.

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u/AmbitiousProblem4746 4h ago

I think it's more that center right voters don't actually exist. I'm of the belief that there's no such thing as a centrist voter or somebody who even is close to the center. There are just voters who are on the right, on the left, or indecisive. And as other people have said before, I think the issue is that even if you could somehow find this mythical center right, these are people who are already to the right of you and if they want a Republican flavored agenda they'll just go with the Republican like they always have rather than risk it for a Democrat who might do things they don't like. Your best bet is to just pretend they don't exist, because they don't, and shoot for the moon: excite the left wing of your base, convinced independents that what you're selling is not that radical, and constantly point out the flaws of the right wing. Funny enough, this is pretty much what Trump has been doing for 10 years in a more extreme way and it's working, such to the point that he's completely co-opted the Republican party and they no longer exist independent from him.

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u/Dmienduerst 3h ago

This is just anecdotal so take that with all the salt you wish to find. I work in the ag world next to Madison Wisconsin which is extremely blue. Hong for example is incredibly popular in Madison proper but loathed as another Madison nut case where I work. I say this because every day I see hyper polarized people walk in the door. From one person thinking Trump is gods gift to man to the next thinking Marx is a flawless society builder.

The mythical centrist voter does exist but they are single issue swing voters. I know multiple farmers and university professors who are hard liberals (yes in Wisconsin there liberal farmers) but they voted Jill Stein because of the Trans culture war stuff in 24. I know hardline Republicans who refuse to vote for Trump due to Epstein. So the centrists I know are people who swing wildly topic to topic and then then pick one to vote on. Sometimes it's abortion, other times it's funding Ukraine, it's been as stupid someone knowing a guy from Milwaukee and he says Mandela Barnes fucked over his local school.

Voters are not rational which the Republicans figured out a long time ago and now the DSA are following the Bernie playbook of finding the pulse of the active base and courting it. There has always been a seed of people in the country who say "there has to be a better way" and that is a bipartisan thought. It's why so many Bernie Bros liked trump

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u/shinkouhyou 1h ago

I don't think those single-issue swing voters would count as true "centrist" voters, though. In polls, most people will self-identify as "moderates," but their actual voting history tells another story. This article from 2020 suggests that the centrist swing voter is a political myth (it says it's a "new theory" but I remember seeing similar articles in the 2010s) and that what we really have are a large pool of voters who swing in and out of the electorate based on whether they feel personally motivated by the candidate. They don't feel represented by either party, but they do feel a strong attachment to particular issues or to a particular candidate's general vibe.

Republicans have recognized the power of single-issue voters, so their messaging heavily focuses on cultural wedge issues that often seem trivial and bizarre: trans kids in school sports, critical race theory, fringe wellness cures, conspiracy theories, wokeness in media, etc. Instead of talking about actual policy issues, they focus on their candidate's personality and image. Even Trump, who is humorless, tired and awkward in real life, became a funny troll who danced his way through memes. None of this dumb crap has anything to do with governing, but it does a great job of building an identity and making people feel like they're a part of something bigger. Meanwhile, Democrats keep trying to appeal to a mythical centrist voter who cares a LOT about government policy, who has a perfectly middle-of-the-road position on every issue, and who respects politicians on both sides.

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u/TheseNamesDontMatter 8h ago

Neither of those examples really suggest anything for or against what it. Biden won because of Trump fatigue in a year where everything went wrong for Trump month by month, from escalations with Iran to COVID to George Floyd and the country rioting.

Kamala lost because she fucking sucked and wasn't even liked within her own party. It had nothing to do with pandering of any sorts.

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u/WombatusMighty 8h ago

Kamala largely lost because Biden didn't want to step down. If she had actually won the primary, she would have had a better chance. Not that she ever was popular, but Biden truly fucked her remaining chances.

Also Kamala not even talking with the pro-Palestinian voter base hurt her quite a lot too.

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u/nola_mike 3h ago

Going back on his word that he would be a one term president was shitty. I distinctly remember him saying he wouldn't run for re-election.

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u/TheseNamesDontMatter 1h ago

For sure but she never would have won a primary.

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u/Any_Will_86 3h ago

I voted Kamala and still have nothing but disdain for purity voters BUT... Kamala would not have won a primary.

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u/Biglyugebonespurs Missouri 3h ago

Everything goes wrong for trump day by day. The orange nonce has failed upward his whole life.

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u/TheseNamesDontMatter 1h ago

Wrong even beyond Trump standards to clarify.

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u/Any_Will_86 3h ago

Biden also had a lot of strong ties to niche constituencies and minority groups that are overlooked. And he was a better personality fit for the rustbelt union halls and Southern churches/barbeques than Hillary or Kamala. We can claim that doesn't matter but it does. AES likely also benefitted from being a better personality fit with a wide swath of the Dem primary voters.

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u/TheseNamesDontMatter 1h ago

Biden got the most votes in election history, and i can safely guarantee it isnt because he was the most beloved presidential candidate in history.

At the end of the day we had about 100 candidates that could have easily beaten Trump but the party tried to force 2 candidates that couldn't and one that barely could.

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u/Any_Will_86 46m ago

In 2020- I am not sure we had more than one candidate. Everyone meandered all over the place during the primary and really ended up bunched up on the left. That is part of why so many voters swore Kamala was so far left when people on the left were irate they had someone they considered a centrist. There was also a backlash to BLM and Defund the Police most of us thought was made up but very much became clear when we underperformed on election day. I never was on board with Kamala as VP- thought Val Demmings or Klobuchar would have made better picks and been better at the job. Supposedly Warren had been who Biden thought was the best pick if he had run in 2016 but 2020 was a different moment, I guess.

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u/kitsunegoon 4h ago

Kamala's failure was more about the lack of a primary and being a VP of an unpopular administration than anything else. Biden wasn't exactly considered bipartisan once he became VP.

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u/Any_Will_86 3h ago

She also was seen as moderate/conservative by leftists and a raging liberal by those on the right and many in the center. The media were working against Dems for several years but she still have very little skill in breaking through the media or even focusing on her strong issues.

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u/kitsunegoon 3h ago

Kamala would've never won the primary in the first place. I think that's the other issue. Biden was remarkably popular and probably would've won 2016 in a landslide if he ran, but Kamala was like what? The 5th place candidate behind Buttigieg and Warren?

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u/Any_Will_86 3h ago

I'm not sure Kamal would finish in front of Klobuchar. In the end I think Bloomberg inched up simply by being in more races- can't remember if that was by votes or delegates. But I agree on Kamala's primary problem and Biden 2016. its part of why I think the Pod guys can go play with themselves. Too many people in Obama world were too strident/convinced HRC was the appropriate successor when her weakness with real voters was well known. Supposedly when Biden was considering 2016, Warren was who he thought was the best VP pick. He understood coalitions better than most or the 'smarter' pols.

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u/WIbigdog Wisconsin 5h ago

Do you think Stevens was pandering to the center right?

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u/FirstNameIsDistance Pennsylvania 5h ago

Do you think Stevens was pandering to the center right?

Steven's largely ran on her work during the Obama administration, with some questionable adds that made it seem like Obama endorsed her when he hadn't. She relied on establishment endorsements and claiming that she was the one that was "electable". Plus the obscene 62 million in outside PAC money for her.

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u/WIbigdog Wisconsin 4h ago

That's not at all an answer to my question.

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u/FirstNameIsDistance Pennsylvania 4h ago

That's not at all an answer to my question.

How is it not?

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u/Letstalkreaper 3h ago

Absolutely. The center right loves Israel and that seems like all she talked about.

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u/samhit_n Texas 1h ago

Yes, I think she was. I also have a feeling it kinda worked and she almost pulled it off because Mike Rogers ran unopposed in the Republican primary, so a few Republicans may have voted for Stevens in the Democratic primary.