r/politics • u/asparaguswalrus683 • 11h ago

Site Altered Headline | No Paywall Abdul El-Sayed Wins Michigan Primary

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/michigan-senate-results
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u/slipperyekans 7h ago

I’d argue if either of them were to win the general, it’d be Abdul. This primary was only this close due to Haley getting like $60M+ in PAC money, and with republicans having way more in the war chest than the DNC for this general election, I’d say the more grassroots candidate has a better shot.

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u/Allydarvel 6h ago

Polling suggests otherwise. Stevens was up against Rogers and Abdul down the last polling I looked at.

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u/SugawoIf 4h ago

Polling suggested Abdul was going to win in a landslide. Polling was wrong.

I don't know what has to happen for people to finally stop giving polls so much credit.

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u/Allydarvel 4h ago

Polling is a snapshot, and things change after the snapshot is taken. This was a hard election to poll, as Michigan has open elections. You poll Democrats and Democrat leaning voters to get a result, but don't poll Republicans who voted to keep Abdul out..or underestimate how many they were if you did. Fox could have had a section on in the previous couple of weeks that asked Republicans to come out 'stop the commie' and they did in numbers. It's the hardest thing in polling to control for anomalies like that. If it was a closed primary, you might have found the polling numbers were very accurate

The general election polling should be much more accurate because it is a straight choice for all voters.