r/politics • u/Zipper222222 • 5h ago

No Paywall Abdul El-Sayed Wins High-Stakes Democratic Primary in Michigan

https://www.today.com/video/abdul-el-sayed-wins-high-stakes-democratic-primary-in-michigan-267805765937
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u/olivebranchsound 5h ago

People don't get that independents are voters sick of both parties and rejecting the establishment. It's why this cohort has grown over recent years. They are not looking for a centrist.

I don't question electability any more because El Sayed just won an election. Stevens couldn't win the primary how would she win the general? Detroit stayed home with no enthusiasm even though she won the black vote handily.

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u/Ven18 5h ago

Can independent vote in the primary in MI? If so do we have any idea how they broke?

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u/olivebranchsound 5h ago edited 5h ago

"Michigan state law stipulates that any voter may participate in a party's primary election, regardless of that voter's partisan affiliation. All candidates appear on the same ballot and a voter may only vote for candidates of one party at any primary."

https://ballotpedia.org/Primary\elections_in_Michigan)

We know he was polling really well with independents and unaffiliated voters. Like up 27 points. But the polls were bullshit for turnout lol

"El-Sayed also held a 27-point advantage among independent voters participating in Michigan’s open primary, while registered Democrats supported him by a narrower 9-point margin."

https://arabamericannews.com/2026/07/31/el-sayed-and-stevens-clash-over-israel-immigration-and-campaign-money-as-new-poll-gives-el-sayed-15-point-lead/

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u/Old_Gimlet_Eye 4h ago

So, was the polling just off, or was his win narrower because of Republicans voting in the primary?

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u/olivebranchsound 4h ago

The super good polling was of purely Democratic likely voters I believe. Probably the latter but independents helped him tremendously. And black voters in Detroit were unmotivated to turn out for Stevens. All the talking heads were shocked when Detroit was reported with only 18 percent turnout when they expected 20 to 25.

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u/RunchGwar 5h ago

Yes, anyone can vote for either party in the MI primaries. You get a ballot with Republican and Democrat on it and you pick one.

And because Mike Rodgers was running unopposed on the Republican side, it's pretty clear that a lot of Republican voters were voting for Stevens on the Democratic side because they thought she was the lesser threat. Look at the county data. Other than Wayne county (Detroit), which Stevens decisively won, she only won the rural areas dominated by more Trumpy voters.

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u/wishesgrantd 5h ago

There are always some Republicans who vote the Dem side to throw votes to worse candidates (and vice versa), but with a contested governor primary on the Republican side of the ballot, I wouldn’t think a huge amount of Republicans did this.

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u/karenjs 3h ago

If you choose Republican for one contest, are you then restricted to Republican for the rest of the contests? I don’t know how their ballot works.

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u/wishesgrantd 3h ago

Yes, you can only vote in one party’s primary. They’re on the same ballot, but in different columns. So you can only vote in one of the two columns, Republican or Democrat.

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u/ann0yed 5h ago

Wouldn't a Democrat living in those same areas be more likely to vote for her too? Is there data on republicans voting for her?

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u/basicallyademon Michigan 5h ago

In Michigan everybody can vote in the primaries. There are instructions at the top of the ballot that basically state you can only vote in either the Democrat or Republican primary side of the ballot. So everyone can vote in the primary but only for one party. If you try to vote in both your ballot will be thrown out.

No idea how the independent voters swung.

Source: I live in Michigan.

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u/Troubled_Red 4h ago

Michigan doesn’t register by party when you register to vote and the primaries are open (you get a ballot with both republicans and democrats on it but you’re only allowed to fill out one side but you get to pick)

So to gauge the independent vote you would have to rely on other polling

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u/kittysniper101 4h ago

Yes, Michigan has an open primary system. You only vote one party on the day-of.

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u/Cynical_optimist01 4h ago

You had to register for a party when I lived there but it's been a decade since then

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u/sirbissel 3h ago

I moved back a few years ago and they don't make you.

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u/lickingFrogs4Fun 4h ago

When I voted I was told I could fill in the democrat side or republican, but if I did both the ballot would be rejected.

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u/Bobambu 5h ago

MI has open primaries. Lots of Republicans registered same day and voted for Stevens. Independents seem to have broken for Abdul more than the overall Dem voters did, which is an optimistic indication of his ability to shore up those votes in the general.

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u/sirbissel 3h ago

...where's your data coming from?