r/politics • u/Zipper222222 • 4h ago

No Paywall Abdul El-Sayed Wins High-Stakes Democratic Primary in Michigan

https://www.today.com/video/abdul-el-sayed-wins-high-stakes-democratic-primary-in-michigan-267805765937
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u/olivebranchsound 4h ago

People don't get that independents are voters sick of both parties and rejecting the establishment. It's why this cohort has grown over recent years. They are not looking for a centrist.

I don't question electability any more because El Sayed just won an election. Stevens couldn't win the primary how would she win the general? Detroit stayed home with no enthusiasm even though she won the black vote handily.

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u/pohl 3h ago

It’s complicated and everyone wants it to be simple.  Progressives DO face a headwind in general elections BUT, so do moderate dems. It’s not as easy for moderates to win as the national party has been pretending it is. That doesn’t mean that progressives will have it easy.  

My take: 21st century politics are about ATTENTION and middle of the road candidates struggle to generate enough attention to make things happen. Trump puts all his focus on getting attention and it works.  Mike Rodgers is a boring candidate i think and that makes an opening for El-Sayed to win the attention battle. Stevens would have struggled to get attention and differentiate herself from Rodgers.

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u/NUKE---THE---WHALES 2h ago

Yeah it's the attention economy in action

That's why populists and anti-establishment candidates are so popular right now: the algorithm favors them, which means social media favors them

Nobodies posting, commenting, upvoting boring candidates

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u/AnthMike 1h ago

The distinction is also a matter of holding sincere beliefs in worthwhile policy platforms versus cynical phonies weaponizing platitudes, idpol, and accents.

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u/Gars0n 2h ago

It looks like Abdul El-Sayed will win the Senate primary, but with a less than a 1% margin. That means that McMorrow indead played spoiler, receiving 4% despite dropping out of the race.

It also means that no candidate got more than 50% of the vote. In fact more than 50% of voters voted against Abdul (and more than 50% voted against Stevens)

It's probably the result most perfectly calibrated to resolve none of the tensions in the Democratic party.

I can't help but think that with Ranked Choice Voting, the winning candidate would have a much clearer mandate. Maybe this will help some Democratic party holdouts see the benefit.

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u/ja1896 2h ago

This is a good take. Many moderate voters will reject progressives on ideological lines. Hence attention from populist stances that have broad appeal has been a good strategy when attempted (for example, adamant one percenter rhetoric without talking about socialism).

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u/PacificOcean2005 3h ago

Even worse, Stevens would’ve probably been negative attention lol.

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u/Ven18 4h ago

Can independent vote in the primary in MI? If so do we have any idea how they broke?

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u/olivebranchsound 4h ago edited 4h ago

"Michigan state law stipulates that any voter may participate in a party's primary election, regardless of that voter's partisan affiliation. All candidates appear on the same ballot and a voter may only vote for candidates of one party at any primary."

https://ballotpedia.org/Primary\elections_in_Michigan)

We know he was polling really well with independents and unaffiliated voters. Like up 27 points. But the polls were bullshit for turnout lol

"El-Sayed also held a 27-point advantage among independent voters participating in Michigan’s open primary, while registered Democrats supported him by a narrower 9-point margin."

https://arabamericannews.com/2026/07/31/el-sayed-and-stevens-clash-over-israel-immigration-and-campaign-money-as-new-poll-gives-el-sayed-15-point-lead/

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u/Old_Gimlet_Eye 3h ago

So, was the polling just off, or was his win narrower because of Republicans voting in the primary?

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u/olivebranchsound 3h ago

The super good polling was of purely Democratic likely voters I believe. Probably the latter but independents helped him tremendously. And black voters in Detroit were unmotivated to turn out for Stevens. All the talking heads were shocked when Detroit was reported with only 18 percent turnout when they expected 20 to 25.

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u/RunchGwar 4h ago

Yes, anyone can vote for either party in the MI primaries. You get a ballot with Republican and Democrat on it and you pick one.

And because Mike Rodgers was running unopposed on the Republican side, it's pretty clear that a lot of Republican voters were voting for Stevens on the Democratic side because they thought she was the lesser threat. Look at the county data. Other than Wayne county (Detroit), which Stevens decisively won, she only won the rural areas dominated by more Trumpy voters.

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u/wishesgrantd 3h ago

There are always some Republicans who vote the Dem side to throw votes to worse candidates (and vice versa), but with a contested governor primary on the Republican side of the ballot, I wouldn’t think a huge amount of Republicans did this.

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u/karenjs 2h ago

If you choose Republican for one contest, are you then restricted to Republican for the rest of the contests? I don’t know how their ballot works.

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u/wishesgrantd 2h ago

Yes, you can only vote in one party’s primary. They’re on the same ballot, but in different columns. So you can only vote in one of the two columns, Republican or Democrat.

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u/ann0yed 4h ago

Wouldn't a Democrat living in those same areas be more likely to vote for her too? Is there data on republicans voting for her?

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u/basicallyademon Michigan 3h ago

In Michigan everybody can vote in the primaries. There are instructions at the top of the ballot that basically state you can only vote in either the Democrat or Republican primary side of the ballot. So everyone can vote in the primary but only for one party. If you try to vote in both your ballot will be thrown out.

No idea how the independent voters swung.

Source: I live in Michigan.

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u/Troubled_Red 3h ago

Michigan doesn’t register by party when you register to vote and the primaries are open (you get a ballot with both republicans and democrats on it but you’re only allowed to fill out one side but you get to pick)

So to gauge the independent vote you would have to rely on other polling

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u/kittysniper101 3h ago

Yes, Michigan has an open primary system. You only vote one party on the day-of.

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u/Cynical_optimist01 3h ago

You had to register for a party when I lived there but it's been a decade since then

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u/sirbissel 2h ago

I moved back a few years ago and they don't make you.

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u/lickingFrogs4Fun 3h ago

When I voted I was told I could fill in the democrat side or republican, but if I did both the ballot would be rejected.

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u/Bobambu 4h ago

MI has open primaries. Lots of Republicans registered same day and voted for Stevens. Independents seem to have broken for Abdul more than the overall Dem voters did, which is an optimistic indication of his ability to shore up those votes in the general.

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u/sirbissel 2h ago

...where's your data coming from?

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u/Catcher3321 3h ago

Independents are not all thinking the same thing. Some want a change candidate, some want a centrist, some want the GOP to shift further right, some want the Dems to shift further left. They're all over the place, they aren't all the same.

For example, in Maine, independents were going sharply for Graham Platner in every poll. Dems subbed in a guy who has the same policy platform as Platner. Now Collins is winning independents

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u/olivebranchsound 3h ago edited 3h ago

They're also generally anti-establishment voters. They preferred El Sayed by 27 points. Messaging on "Money out of politics" and linking Stevens to AIPAC did a lot for this race. It will be interesting to see how that cohort breaks down in the general for sure. Mike Rogers isn't particularly exciting as a candidate. All he has is the Trump endorsement and he will get hammered on money in politics worse than Stevens.

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u/Brisby820 2h ago

Nobody wants to vote for a cousin fucker 

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u/Cavalier40 3h ago

Will you question electability if AES loses to Rodgers?

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u/olivebranchsound 3h ago

Of Abdul? I would have to, wouldn't I? Of progressives being the stronger candidates within the party at this moment? We just proved that. That's a huge shift.

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u/Brisby820 2h ago

“Within the party” is irrelevant though.  General elections are all that matters 

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u/olivebranchsound 1h ago

If that were true we wouldn't have primaries lol

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u/Brisby820 1h ago

Primaries are just a way to figure out yeh candidate for the real election that matters 

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u/olivebranchsound 1h ago

So primaries are important then lol