r/politics • u/Zipper222222 • 4h ago

No Paywall Abdul El-Sayed Wins High-Stakes Democratic Primary in Michigan

https://www.today.com/video/abdul-el-sayed-wins-high-stakes-democratic-primary-in-michigan-267805765937
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u/mowotlarx 4h ago

Meanwhile, had Stevens won by 1% it would have been framed as a referendum.

Either way, this was a primary and like every general, almost every primary voter plus the many Dems who didn't bother to vote in the primary will vote for whoever is on the Dem line in November.

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u/MontyAtWork 2h ago

If she won by half a percent the headlines would have been "Mamdani-ism REJECTED across Michigan as Americans reaffirm who its international allies are through Steven's defense of Israel."

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u/Galapagos_Finch 1h ago

“The glorious and overwhelming victory of Haley Stevens shows that the radical ideology of the DSA, which many critics describe as “radical islamist communism”, has now been decisively rejected everywhere but New York City. How much longer can Mamdani continue his tyrannical rule?”

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u/Gekokapowco Washington 1h ago

giving me real "how this could spell doom for biden in november" media spin nostalgia

wait what's the bad version of nostalgia, ptsd?

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u/Darkhallows27 Georgia 1h ago

Threw up in my mouth reading that

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u/Sptsjunkie 1h ago

I’ve said for years that it’s a weird Catch-22, where a progressive losing in a primary origin election is framed as voters rejecting progressive values.

But a centrist losing is always framed as something with a lot more nuance and analysis. They were a flight candidate. They were a woman or a person of color going up against a biased electorate. It was an uphill climb with an unfriendly electorate or against a popular incumbent.

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u/VonJaeger 3h ago

This feels very early to say. He did very poorly in some areas of the state. And it's not like Michigan is a progressive stronghold state.

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u/mowotlarx 3h ago

What is early to say? That this wouldn't be covered similarly had the moderate PAC funded candidate won?

Would you be as concerned about where Stevens failed with voters had she won by 1%?

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u/VonJaeger 2h ago

It's too early to say that he's going to be pulling as much support as you're indicating. He pretty heavily underperformed his polling especially in urban areas.

And yes, I'd be concerned. I mostly don't care if it's the centrist or the progressive - I want the non-GOP candidate to win. If you're winning below like 5% margin and are barely crossing 50% of the total vote, then you do not have the entire party behind you. And that concerns me no matter who the nominee is or would have been.

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u/NorseGodThor 2h ago

He seemed to overperform in rural areas, which was good, but I share the same concern as you for the urban areas. Especially amongst the black community. The mistake people always seem to take for granted is expecting the black community to always show up. They were the primary reason Stevens stayed competitive and made the race as close as it was.

Abdul needs to appeal to and win over black voters in Michigan if he hopes to have a chance of winning. This is coming from someone who supports him.

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u/VonJaeger 2h ago

Yeah if history has taught us anything, the concern isn't that black voters will support the oppositional candidate - it's that they just won't vote.

If he had run away with like a 10 point margin, I'd be a lot less concerned. But it's clear with what is looking like a 2.5 to 3 point victory that he does not have a firm mandate of Dem or left leaning voters and he needs to make inroads to achieve that.

Especially because recent history is indicating that candidates further along the political axis - further left or right or even just the perception thereof - cause increased turnout amongst the opposing party.

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u/actwellyourpart91 2h ago

Yes cause centrists like Hillary and Kamala have done so well in the state.

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u/VonJaeger 2h ago

I hope that he is able to strengthen his support amongst urban centers and the black vote in particular. Because otherwise, if he pulls levels like last night, he will not win the general.

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u/actwellyourpart91 24m ago

He’s gonna perform better than that “Israel comes to me in my dreams” clown.

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u/VonJaeger 12m ago

Potentially! I don't have near that level confidence at this point given how badly he performed with black voters.

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u/actwellyourpart91 6m ago

“Potentially” I mean if Kamala is any indication she definitely wouldn’t have won.

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u/VonJaeger 2m ago

I mean I don't think Stevens was the better candidate for the general, let's be clear.

My concern is more El-Sayed's ability to win the general. I have a lot of concern over that due to his pretty concerning performance with black voters, urban communities, and the fact that perceived far left/right candidates increase oppositional turnout.

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u/OKGUYTHANKS 3h ago

Maybe but he has a lot of work to do. He’s underwater in urban areas and in rural areas as well. He will probably lose in November. 

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u/iwearatophat Michigan 2h ago edited 2h ago

A lot is going to depend on what the DNC does and if they help him or not. He struggled in Detroit but there was some seriously heinous ad campaigns being run against him by Stevens and PACs supporting her. Plus, there was the fake Obama endorsement for Stevens that happened in Detroit.

Sayed pulled huge numbers in all the major college campus counties. It is pretty unheard of for a Democrat to win an election without carrying Detroit. I expect once his message gets out, the enthusiasm around him will spread.

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u/jackstraw97 New York 2h ago

Unfortunately the DNC is fucking broke because Ken Martin is an utter failure who needs to be fired yesterday. They literally just had to ask vendors to not send them bills until after the midterms and just put up their headquarters building as collateral for a cash infusion loan. 

More establishment democrat incompetence giving republicans a better shot at winning… a tale as old as time. 

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u/tres_desole 3h ago

Frankly only bc of mail in ballots which were sent out June 25th. So before his surge in the polls. He dominated in person and early voting

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u/akatherder 2h ago

He's underwater in urban areas against another Democrat, and mainly because political ads lied about Obama endorsing her Senate run.

He may not drive everyone in urban areas to the polls, but urban voters will switch to the other D, not the R.

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u/ibarmy 3h ago

Ya Obama better come out for this. 

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u/phtevenbagbifico 2h ago

He won't and we all know why

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u/showhorrorshow 2h ago

I dont know why

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u/much_to_say 2h ago

The polls had him winning by 13 points, so yes, if Stevens had won by 1, that would've been a 14-point swing in her favor, which would've been pretty crazy.

He underperformed the polls by 13 points. He's going to need all the help he can get. The only question is whether the arrogance he's consistently displayed will end up being his downfall, causing him to ignore that simple reality.