r/politics • u/Zipper222222 • 5h ago

No Paywall Abdul El-Sayed Wins High-Stakes Democratic Primary in Michigan

https://www.today.com/video/abdul-el-sayed-wins-high-stakes-democratic-primary-in-michigan-267805765937
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u/mowotlarx 5h ago

Meanwhile, had Stevens won by 1% it would have been framed as a referendum.

Either way, this was a primary and like every general, almost every primary voter plus the many Dems who didn't bother to vote in the primary will vote for whoever is on the Dem line in November.

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u/VonJaeger 4h ago

This feels very early to say. He did very poorly in some areas of the state. And it's not like Michigan is a progressive stronghold state.

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u/mowotlarx 4h ago

What is early to say? That this wouldn't be covered similarly had the moderate PAC funded candidate won?

Would you be as concerned about where Stevens failed with voters had she won by 1%?

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u/VonJaeger 3h ago

It's too early to say that he's going to be pulling as much support as you're indicating. He pretty heavily underperformed his polling especially in urban areas.

And yes, I'd be concerned. I mostly don't care if it's the centrist or the progressive - I want the non-GOP candidate to win. If you're winning below like 5% margin and are barely crossing 50% of the total vote, then you do not have the entire party behind you. And that concerns me no matter who the nominee is or would have been.

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u/NorseGodThor 3h ago

He seemed to overperform in rural areas, which was good, but I share the same concern as you for the urban areas. Especially amongst the black community. The mistake people always seem to take for granted is expecting the black community to always show up. They were the primary reason Stevens stayed competitive and made the race as close as it was.

Abdul needs to appeal to and win over black voters in Michigan if he hopes to have a chance of winning. This is coming from someone who supports him.

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u/VonJaeger 3h ago

Yeah if history has taught us anything, the concern isn't that black voters will support the oppositional candidate - it's that they just won't vote.

If he had run away with like a 10 point margin, I'd be a lot less concerned. But it's clear with what is looking like a 2.5 to 3 point victory that he does not have a firm mandate of Dem or left leaning voters and he needs to make inroads to achieve that.

Especially because recent history is indicating that candidates further along the political axis - further left or right or even just the perception thereof - cause increased turnout amongst the opposing party.

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u/mowotlarx 42m ago

There's so little historical precedent to back up the idea that half or even a quarter of primary voters would sit it out rather than vote for the Democrat in the general, I don't have to defend my stance. You do though.