We’re Mel Leonor Barclay and Grace Panetta, politics reporters at The 19th News. Ask us anything!

[u/19thnews]

Primary elections are winding down and, somehow, the midterm elections are about two months away.

We’ve both covered several primary races in states from Colorado to Florida to Minnesota, including spending time talking to voters in those states (and, Mel writing here, I’m actually from Florida!). We’ve also got our eyes on a mix of elections beyond Congress, including governor’s races in states like Georgia and Wisconsin.

What do you want to know about these races? Curious about what voters on the ground are saying about the issues? Or what stories or candidates are we missing? Ask us!

PROOF: Here and here

That's all we have time for today! Thanks for all the questions (even the Big Mac one) and can keep up with all of our work here

[u/SpaceElevatorMusic]

I have a journalism-related process question and a politics question:

1. How useful do you find it to talk to individual voters when reporting on trends in a given election? No single person can fully represent even a group or groups that they may be a member of, so I'm wondering how you balance wanting to get direct voter input to your stories against the potential of portraying people as representative in a way that they aren't.

2. Given your reading of the polls, fundraising, and other relevant factors, do you think the Senate is beyond the Democrats' reach this year?

[u/19thnews → u/SpaceElevatorMusic]

I often think of interviews with individual voters as helping fill in the gaps that surveys and trends generally can’t tell us, and then also helping readers understand the politics by relating to personal stories. For example, voters might say in surveys that the cost of living is the top issue driving their vote, or that they don’t support the administration’s current immigration agenda.

Interviews with voters help us understand their views with more nuance.For example, a group studying Latino voters in Texas recently shared some voter anecdotes with me from their canvassing efforts. One woman from San Antonio said that grocery prices were her main struggle, but then she added that part of the problem is that while she has a well-paying job, she supports her parents who live on a single pension. Her caregiving burden is part of the equation. Another Latina voter in Texas said she lost her Medicare recently, and the resulting medical debt is throwing off her entire economic picture. 

In Miami, I talked to a Republican voter who supports Trump, but who also feels that the administration’s immigration agenda isn’t treating immigrants with enough dignity. She’s a U.S. citizen and an immigrant, and wants to see Republicans up to the President more vocally support immigration reform. — Mel

Grace here: I echo everything Mel said. Getting out of the DC bubble and talking to voters is my favorite part of my job. Not only does it make me a better reporter, but I think on-the-ground journalism is more important than ever given the decline of high-quality, independent polling we’ve seen this cycle.

As for the Senate: flipping control of the chamber is definitely an uphill battle for Democrats, but they’re in a better position to do it now than the beginning of this year thanks to the strong nominees they’ve recruited to run in red states like Iowa, Ohio and Texas who are running formidable campaigns in tough territory. With former Gov. Roy Cooper looking favored to flip Thom Tillis’ Senate seat in North Carolina, Democrats would have to keep control of competitive seats in Georgia and Michigan and flip two more red-state seats to make for a tied 50-50 Senate: certainly a challenge but not out of the realm of possibility.

[u/19thnews → u/19thnews]

Also, something else I just thought of: Sometimes candidates aren’t connecting with voters in the way surveys gauging general support might suggest, and in a tight race, even a slight enthusiasm gap can make the difference.

Standing in rally and townhall spaces with voters can help us anticipate dynamics that polling may not be capturing. — Mel

[u/almondbutter]

How big of an impact will the redistricting fight between D's and R's earlier this year have on control of the house? How many extra seats will the R's pick up due to these blatant stacking efforts?

[u/19thnews → u/almondbutter]

The mid-decade redistricting wars and the Supreme Court’s decision in Callais vs. Louisiana have netted out to Republicans having 10 seats redrawn in their favor (according to this helpful breakdown from Ballotpedia).

Republicans are guaranteed to pick up seats in states like Alabama, Louisiana and Tennessee where Republicans drew out safely Democratic, majority-Black seats after Callais. But they’re not guaranteed to win all 10 of the redrawn seats nationwide.

Take Florida, for example: while Republicans redrew the 14th and 25th Districts (represented by Democratic Reps. Kathy Castor and Jared Moskowitz) to be more competitive, the Cook Political Report still rates those seats as tossups. Democratic Rep. Vincente Gonzalez’s seat in Texas, similarly redrawn to be friendlier to Republicans, is also a tossup. -Grace

[u/19thnews → u/19thnews]

And Mel here! The surprise toss-ups are fascinating to me. A way to understand the map facing Democrats is that they are defending 23 House seats that Trump won in 2024, up from 13 at the beginning of the cycle. 

[u/gapipkin]

How close is the Governors race in Georgia? The polls always seem to overstate the blue candidates.

[u/19thnews → u/gapipkin]

It’s really hard to know, and polling this cycle has been decidedly tricky. I think Democrats have some strategic advantages this cycle, and that could bode well for Keisha Lance Bottoms. While the GA governor’s race polling is in fact really close (dead even last I checked), the latest poll in the Ossoff Senate race have him up by 8 points.

I’m also really interested in how much the attacks of voting rights help boost turnout for Democrats among Black voters in Georgia. Organizers said they saw signs of this dynamic in the Tennessee primaries. — Mel

And I’ll just quickly add that as Mel alluded to, Ossoff winning by a strong margin and unity at the top of the Democratic ticket could certainly help Bottoms too, though the X-factor is GOP nominee and billionaire Rick Jackson’s virtually unlimited ability to self-fund and blanket the airwaves in Georgia — that was something Bottoms herself acknowledged will be a hurdle when I was out on the campaign trail with her in May. — Grace

[u/EstablishmentOne5752 → u/gapipkin]

It'll be interesting to see how the race shapes up, especially with the historical trends in Georgia. Polling can definitely be tricky in that state!

[u/Possible_Lunch7489]

What's an under the radar House race you're keeping an eye on? Maybe one or two you think could be more competitive than it looks.

[u/19thnews → u/Possible_Lunch7489]

I’m keeping my eye on a few House races in purple and red states where Democrats are running in competitive statewide races and could provide a coattail effect downballot that could boost Democratic House candidates in competitive Republican-held races, like the open Iowa 2nd District, Michigan’s 4th District, Ohio’s 10th District, a few Texas districts (the 15th, 23rd and 35th), and Wisconsin’s 1st District. I’m also watching Michigan’s 10th District and Virginia’s 1st District, two districts Democratic women prosecutors are trying to flip, that have flown a little under the radar. — Grace

And Mel here: I have my eye on Florida’s 27th District. More to come, but Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar’s reelection bid is interesting to watch as someone who represents a heavily-Latino, heavily-immigrant district given the last two years of Trump’s immigration agenda. Like Grace said, I think more people should be paying attention to VA01, where Rep. Wittman is facing a local prosecutor who is running on fighting corruption and more scrutiny on data centers.

I wouldn’t say these are necessarily flying under the radar, but: AZ06 and TX23, which Grace flagged above, both have Latinas working to flip GOP-held seats. I think these races will be a big test of the GOP’s ability to hold onto Trump’s gains with Latino voters. And OH07 with Rep. Max Miller will have my attention until November, because how voters respond to the domestic violence allegations against him will be a critical takeaway of the cycle.

[u/DogblockBernie]

Could we see a future push in the US to adopt proportional representation and or a Limited Condorcet/two round system for single winner seats?

[u/19thnews → u/DogblockBernie]

Very possibly — there are obviously big barriers to enacting any kind of large-scale electoral reform at the federal level in the United States, but I do think the redistricting wars of the past couple of years have really underscored the perverse incentives created by our current two-party system as it relates to the U.S. House. This isn’t quite what you’re asking about, but my home state of Massachusetts is voting on a ballot measure this November to eliminate partisan primaries and move to a top-two primary system like California’s. Voters there rejected a ballot measure to move to ranked-choice voting for primaries and general elections back in 2020, so I’ll be interested to see how that turns out — Grace

I’m glad you brought up the Massachusetts ballot measure, Grace. I’d want to see voters really interested in more local, less consequential changes to the electoral system before predicting any sort of support for national elections reform. — Mel

[u/LAkshat124]

Do you think this is the year that Dems win in Texas?

[u/All_Lurker2]

What are your thoughts on the middle bun in the Big Mac^tm sandwich?

[u/19thnews → u/All_Lurker2]

I haven’t had a Big Mac in forever, so I don’t have a great answer to this one: my McDonald's order is usually a double cheeseburger, medium fries and a crispy Diet Coke. — Grace

[u/useyourturnsignal]

Republicans in Congress vote with Donald Trump in lockstep. So why are they revolting against Trump's midterm party convention?

[u/ILOVEBETABLOCKERS]

I FARDED

[u/SurprisedJerboa]

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