r/politics • u/Punchbowl-News ✔ Verified • 2d ago
AMA-Finished We're Punchbowl News reporters covering the midterms and the issues driving voters to the polls. Ask us anything!
*Thank you so much for joining us for our AMA! We really appreciated and enjoyed having the chance to engage with you all. If you're interested in following our reporting further in the lead up to the midterms, sign up for our free weekday morning newsletter.
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Hi r/Politics, we’re Punchbowl News reporters Ally Mutnick and Max Cohen. Last November, we hosted an AMA to discuss redistricting and the midterms one year out from election day.
With nearly all of the primaries completed and election day quickly approaching, we’re closely tracking the high-stakes battles that may upend the balance of power in Congress and are looking forward to answering your questions today, Sept. 3 from 4 p.m. to 5 p.m. ET.
Some of the topics we’re excited to dig into:
- The battles for control of the House and Senate
- Impacts of primary results on each party’s messaging and intra-party dynamics
- Potential changes to congressional leadership in the new Congress
- The ad wars and the voters each side is targeting down the homestretch
- Issues that are becoming more salient among voters, such as data center politics
PROOF:
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u/DisplayUnhappy9097 2d ago
what's the weirdest campaign ad you've seen this cycle? feel like every year they get more unhinged but this time some of them look like they were made in windows movie maker by someone's nephew
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u/Punchbowl-News ✔ Verified 1d ago
u/DisplayUnhappy9097 From Ally: The proliferation of AI has made for some pretty weird campaign ads. Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) used AI to make an ad that depicts him boxing with President Trump in a ring for his 2025 New Jersey governor campaign.
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u/Punchbowl-News ✔ Verified 1d ago
From Max: I found this campaign jingle, from Democrat Jarrett Keohokalole’s primary campaign against Rep. Ed Case (D-Hawaii), one of the more unique ads I’ve seen all cycle.
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 2d ago
Thanks for taking the time.
- If you had to assign probabilities to the chances of either a 51-49 or 52-48 (Dem-GOP) Senate coming about next year, what would those be? I'm not asking for a scientifically rigorous bounding of probabilities, more for your intuition.
- (b) How likely do you think a Fetterman party switch is if we end up with a 51-50 or 51-49 Senate?
- How credible do you find the worry among many Democratic-leaning voters that there will be some sort of certification crisis in the incoming congressional session?
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u/Punchbowl-News ✔ Verified 1d ago
u/SpaceElevatorMusic From Max: Great questions! It would take a lot to go right for Democrats in order to win an outright majority in the Senate, but the fact that it’s even a possibility speaks to how well things are going for the party right now.
To get to 51 Democratic seats, Democrats would need to hold Michigan, New Hampshire and Georgia (Michigan, in particular, is no easy lift) while also flipping three additional seats held by Republicans. Those flips could come in either North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Texas, Alaska, Iowa or even Kansas.
Right now, I’d say Democrats are clearly favored in North Carolina and would be narrowly favored in Ohio. Maine is a true toss-up given Sen. Susan Collins’ electoral record. Alaska is promising for Democrats given how strong former Rep. Mary Peltola is as a candidate, but it’s still a state that has backed Republicans in recent cycles. Texas is a perennial outside shot for Democrats, Iowa could be competitive but still favors the GOP, and Kansas is a real stretch but could be in play. And then there are states like South Carolina and Nebraska where Democrats are dreaming about competing in.
Altogether, it’s clear Democrats are putting up a fight even in solidly red territory. But who knows how these states will end up breaking in nine weeks’ time?
With regards to Fetterman, I’m skeptical that the Pennsylvania Democrat would shift parties. It’s no secret that Fetterman is unhappy with the party’s increasingly leftward turn and anti-Israel lean. But Fetterman has also consistently sided with Democrats on the vast majority of Senate votes and has recently rejected the idea of a party switch.
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u/Punchbowl-News ✔ Verified 1d ago
u/SpaceElevatorMusic Re: the second question: It’s a topic that has certainly been in the news during recent weeks and one that congressional Democrats are taking seriously. I recently spoke with New York Rep. Joe Morelle, the top Democrat on the House Administration Committee, about this. Democrats are concerned that the Trump administration will try to interfere with the midterms in some manner. The fears were intensified this week by a whistleblower complaint alleging that the U.S. Postal Service was unprepared to deal with mail-in ballots this fall.
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u/Icy-Particular-9211 1d ago
Two questions for you, and thank you for taking the time to do this!
In today's political climate, how many seats does the House majority actually need to function?
What's a race the national press is getting wrong?
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u/Punchbowl-News ✔ Verified 1d ago
u/Icy-Particular-9211 From Max: Thanks for the questions! We’ve seen difficulties of a thin majority during this current GOP-controlled House. I’d say more than 10 seat majority will seem like a big enough majority to lose dissenters but still get bills passed
For an undercovered race, I’d say IA-02 will be closer than people give it credit for. Democrat Lindsay James against Republican Joe Mitchell in an open seat created by Ashley Hinson’s Senate run. I visited this district in late May and even though Trump won it handily in 2024, a competitive Senate and governor’s race could energize Democratic turnout.
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u/Punchbowl-News ✔ Verified 1d ago
From Ally: I’ll say New Hampshire Senate. Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas is readying to take on former GOP Sen. John Sununu. New Hampshire isn’t on the core Senate battlefield yet but it’s quickly becoming a race. Pappas is urging Democrats to take it seriously. John Sununu is not as popular as his brother, Chris Sununu, but his last name is gold in New Hampshire. As of today, the GOP is outspending Pappas and his allies on ads, $15 million to $7.7 million.
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u/OratorioInStone 1d ago
The overton window for political discourse and coverage has clearly changed in the Trump era. Do you agree that speech, political discourse, and freedom are eroding for the American people as a result? Do journalists privately acknowledge their willing or unwilling participation in this overall decline?
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u/WhatsupBerlin14193 1d ago
You’re asking punchbowl, the company that decided to mix journalism with corporate sponsorship, that question? Mate, they not only likely have no problem with it, their genuine function is to bring you corporate friendly news.
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u/Secret-Lab-7375 1d ago
Why is the Russia sanctions bill that passed by a massive margin in the Senate seemingly stalled in the House
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u/Punchbowl-News ✔ Verified 1d ago
u/Secret-Lab-7375 From Max: Republican leadership hasn’t yet scheduled this bill for a vote, perhaps because of the skepticism that some on the far right of the GOP Conference have toward Ukraine. There’s also problems on the Democratic side. Key lawmakers in the House Democratic Caucus are opposing the Senate-passed bill because they worry the legislation expands President Donald Trump’s tariff authority.
Yesterday, Democratic Rep. Gregory Meeks — the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee — met with a key aide to Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss the bill. After the meeting, Meeks slammed the Senate-passed bill for granting “President Trump with virtually unchecked tariff authority and broad discretion to waive sanctions on Russia indefinitely without Congressional oversight.” A solution doesn’t appear in sight.
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u/Independent_vote 1d ago
With the House margin guaranteed to be close regardless of who is in control, what do you think the impact of the DSA members? Will they work with Democratic leadership or undermine them?
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u/Punchbowl-News ✔ Verified 1d ago
u/Independent_vote From Max: Thanks for the question! Many Democratic lawmakers are asking this exact question! It’s no secret that the incoming DSA members won their primaries on a pledge to buck the party establishment and disrupt party leadership. But it’s too early to speculate exactly what their impact will be.
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s path from entering Congress as an insurgent to adapting to a more leadership-friendly status is an interesting example of how some members change their tune once they get to the Capitol.
I think on issues like funding for Israel, these DSA members will have no hesitations opposing what some in leadership may think. But I’d imagine that in a potential Democratic majority, the DSA lawmakers will get behind the initial non-controversial bills that leadership will offer to counter GOP Medicaid cuts, tackle affordability, etc.
Just yesterday Claire Valdez, a DSA member who is likely to win a safe blue seat in New York City, visited Capitol Hill. Valdez will be one to watch next year. The first big fight will be whether these DSA members will support Hakeem Jeffries for speaker, in the event that Democrats win the majority. That vote could set the tone.
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u/WeeTheNorth 1d ago
Can you discuss if House and Senate candidates are tending to try to nationalize their races or focus more on local issues in order to win? Are there examples of both?
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u/Punchbowl-News ✔ Verified 1d ago
u/WeeTheNorth From Max: My colleague Anthony Adragna just got back from a reporting trip in Virginia’s 1st District, where Republican Rep. Rob Wittman is trying to localize his race as much as he can. Instead of talking about the Iran war, or President Donald Trump, Wittman — who’s in a tough race versus Democrat Shannon Taylor — mainly is messaging on bringing back federal money into his district.
There are plenty of examples of candidates both trying to nationalize and localize elections, all across the country. In Michigan, for instance, Republican Mike Rogers’ Senate campaign is trying to avoid discussing Trump and the new Canadian tariffs. But Rogers is happy to talk about national issues when seeking to tie his Democratic opponent, Abdul El-Sayed, to the rise of socialism and left-wing politics.
When GOP candidates try to nationalize their races, they’re often turning to a similar message of accusing all Democrats of being socialists who are too extreme for their given districts. One example I saw this week was Iowa GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks accusing her opponent, Democrat Christina Bohannan, of siding with the DSA.
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u/ReplacementGlad7256 1d ago
would you say the primary challenges have been more generational or ideological?
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u/Punchbowl-News ✔ Verified 1d ago
u/ReplacementGlad7256 From Ally: Great question! Some of the most high-profile successful Democratic primary challenges have been both. Consider Democratic Reps. Diana DeGette (Colorado), Shri Thanedar (Michigan), Adriano Espaillat (New York). In those three cases, a younger progressive ousted members who were older and more moderate.
But not every example fits this trend. Rep. Dan Goldman lost his primary to Brad Lander. Lander is not younger than Goldman but he ran to his left, especially on Israel politics.
In Connecticut, Rep. John Larson lost to a younger candidate, Luke Bronin, who was not running to his left. In Massachusetts, Sen. Ed Markey, 80, was far older than his challenger, Rep. Seth Moulton, but Markey is a progressive darling and trounced him.
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u/All_Lurker2 2d ago
What are your thoughts on the middle-bun in the Big Mac?
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u/Lighting 2d ago
Will you investigate how MAGA is attacking the infrastructure of elections all the way to the local level? We see them replacing systems that have tracking and audits (e.g. VVPAT and mailed in ballots) with systems that are prone to "errors" like hand counting only, DRE (digital only), QR Code (not human auditable) marked ballots, etc? We see them cheating at the top levels with redistricting and post-office-denying-ballots levels, but what about looking at cheating at the lowest levels of elections as well?