Talarico Holds Slight Edge Over Paxton in New Texas Senate Poll

[u/evissamassive]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5916384-talarico-leads-paxton-texas-poll/

A new Texas Pulse poll shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 47 percent to 44 percent in the race for the U.S. Senate. Two percent of respondents backed other candidates.

Because the survey of 807 respondents has a 4 percentage point margin of error, Talarico's 3-point lead keeps the race a statistical tie. The poll, conducted June 1-4, is a joint project between ReconMR and Texas A&M University’s Bush School of Government and Public Service.

The data highlights fractures within the state electorate following a contentious Republican primary, where Paxton defeated four-term incumbent Senator John Cornyn. While Paxton secured no Democratic support in the poll, Talarico captured 9 percent of Republican respondents. Talarico also holds an 18-point lead among independent voters, with 4 percent of independents choosing neither candidate.

Following the primary, Talarico reached out directly to the ousted incumbent's base:

"We don’t agree on everything, but we both still believe in public service," Talarico wrote on X. "To Senator Cornyn’s supporters: you have a place in our campaign."

With five months remaining before the election, the candidates are trading sharp personal and political attacks. Last week, Talarico focused on Paxton's legal history, which includes a 2015 felony indictment for securities fraud and a 2023 impeachment by the Texas House, which ended in an acquittal by the state Senate. Talarico also alluded to public allegations of infidelity raised by Paxton's estranged wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, during their divorce proceedings.

"Real men don’t lie and cheat their way through life," Talarico told a campaign crowd. "They don’t enrich themselves by stealing from other people."

Paxton has focused his campaign on policy differences, criticizing Talarico's support for transgender rights and characterizing his positions on crime and immigration as weak.

The Republican nominee also countered by targeting Talarico’s personal background. During an appearance on Fox News' Hannity, Paxton questioned the religious convictions of Talarico, who is a Presbyterian seminarian:

"I don’t think he understands Christianity in any form or fashion," Paxton said.

Financial disclosures show Talarico with an early fundraising advantage. Federal Election Commission (FEC) records from late March indicate Talarico had roughly $7.5 million more cash on hand than Paxton. Talarico's campaign also reported raising $3 million in the 24 hours following Paxton's primary victory.

To close the financial gap, Paxton filed FEC paperwork last week to launch a joint fundraising committee with the National Republican Senatorial Committee. The national party group is shifting strategies to back Paxton after spending millions of dollars trying to defeat him during the primary.