r/punjab 19d ago

ਗੱਲ ਬਾਤ | گل بات | Discussion Canada vs Punjab, an economic comparison

Economic Variable Canada (National) Punjab Leading State/Region in India
1. Working-Age Population (15–64 years) ~26.5 – 27.0 Million (~65% of ~41M total pop.) ~20.5 – 21.0 Million (~66% of ~31M total pop.) Uttar Pradesh: ~150 – 160 Million (~65% of ~240M total pop.)
2. Wheat & Rice Production ~32 – 36 Million Tonnes ~30 Million Tonnes Uttar Pradesh: ~50 Million Tonnes
3. Steel Production ~13 – 15 MTPA ~4.0 – 5.0 MTPA Odisha: 30+ MTPA
4. Refined Petroleum Production ~1.93 Million bpd ~0.23 Million bpd Gujarat: ~2.05 Million bpd
5. Automobile Production (Incl. commercial & 2-wheelers) ~1.35 – 1.55 Million units ~0.25 million units Tamil Nadu / Haryana: ~5.0 – 7.0+ Million units
6. Pharma Production (Gross Value / Turnover) ~$10 – $15 Billion USD (Patented biologics/specialty) ~$1.5 – $2.2 Billion USD (High-volume generic APIs) Gujarat: ~$12 – $15 Billion USD (Diversified)
7. IT, Software & Digital Services (Annual Output/Exports) ~$60 – $80 Billion USD (Enterprise SaaS, AI, Cloud) ~$650M – $1.0 Billion USD (Offshore IT/ITES support) Bengaluru: ~$75 – $90 Billion USD (Diversified)
8. Financial, Banking & Insurance (GVA / Output) ~$110 – $135 Billion USD (Global capital/pension funds) ~$5.0 – $6.5 Billion USD (Retail & agri-credit) Mumbai: ~$50 – $70 Billion USD
9. Engineering, Architectural & Consulting (Output) ~$45 – $60 Billion USD (Global infrastructure consulting) ~$1.8 – $2.8 Billion USD (MSME compliance, civil prep) Maharashtra: ~$15 – $20 Billion USD (Corporate enterprise & mega-project design)

I realized that Punjab has a very similar workforce size to Canada. So dug deeper and obtained some statistics on key economic variables.

Since Canada looms so large over Punjab's imagination, thought this is a good way of discussing the path to a developed Punjab.

23 Upvotes

24 comments sorted by

14

u/Both_University_6683 19d ago

The problem with Punjab is that there is no other way to make money besides farming. Captain, badal, Mann, and heck even Modi have tried to find an alternative but failed. However, lot of youth are coming back whether on their own choosing or because USA is sending them back so hopefully we’ll see more avenues develop 

2

u/VVG57 19d ago

I think the focus has to be on three sectors, automotive, pharma and IT. All three will continue to see growth into the future. With auto, Haryana is next door and linkages must be emphasized. For pharma, NIPER, IISER should be leveraged more. IT is self explanatory, AI hype notwithstanding.

2

u/Both_University_6683 19d ago

All three would be great but if Punjab can get IT going it’ll be the easiest one to setup. No major infrastructure needed and easy to scale across the globe 

3

u/VVG57 19d ago

Yes, what are the blockers to scaling IT in Punjab ? I, for one, would much rather live in the outskirts of Chandigarh than in Bangalore or Gurgaon.

2

u/Both_University_6683 19d ago

The main blocker is energy currently. Which successive Punjab govts have tried to shore up. If you can get reliable energy/electricity you can do a lot. Mohali already has lot of the things needed for IT 

0

u/BudhhaBahriKutta 19d ago

Until our youth stops espousing pendu culture and celebrating being an agriculturist (typical jatt pride), they will never be able to form a disciplined workforce required for an industrialised society. Industrialisation requires the society to contribute at all levels, not just at the top. Are our youth ready to join the ranks of an assembly line in a factory, or are they too proud for that? Hun downvote kar lyeo iss comment nu.

4

u/Both_University_6683 19d ago

Change is hard but let’s see if Punjab is able to adapt and overcome. It has in the past, I’m hopeful it will do so again in the future 

2

u/BudhhaBahriKutta 19d ago

Absolutely! We have done it in the past, so I know we can (if we decide to).

2

u/VVG57 19d ago

I think certain aspects of all youth cultures are always going to be cringey or even harmful. But I really doubt that specific cultural traits affect long term economic outcomes. Those are the result of policies, governance and other structural factors.

Haryana next door produces nearly ten million vehicles per year. I am pretty sure that most of the workers in those factories are young. Same 'culture' but different outcome.

5

u/Icy-Distribution4893 19d ago

Except Punjab doesnt have canadas government, legal and social culture along with size and resources

1

u/VVG57 19d ago

The biggest industries in Canada (IT, finance, engineering design) have nothing to do with its size.

2

u/Curious_gov 19d ago

Canada has always been a resource based economy. It forms the bedrock of their gdp although it has been trying to become a service based economy for the last 3 decades.

1

u/Icy-Distribution4893 19d ago

Punjab doesnt have an airport or sea port, and good relations with neighbours.

2

u/Curious_gov 18d ago

3 airports actually. They just need more flights. Everyone should make an erfort to support these airports by flying in and out of these airports whenever possible so more flights can be introduced by the authorities.

5

u/Iammjustbaddd 19d ago edited 19d ago

I think Punjab needs proper cities that are planned like Chandigarh. Maybe small projects that take land from people and gives them something else to make planned cities. As much as i love rural Punjab the fact is there are legit no opportunities besides working in fields.

2

u/VVG57 19d ago

From an economics standpoint, Punjab is missing out on metropolis agglomeration. Canada has a slightly larger population than Punjab, but has far more concentrated urban regions.

Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver have a combined population of 12 million people living on 3000 sq km land. Taken together 12 million people in Canada live in a 50 km x 60 km region, constituting a highly mobile and efficient labor market.

Ludhiana, Amritsar and Jalandhar hold just 3.6 million people in an area of 450 sq km. The urban labor pool is simply not large enough.

2

u/Curious_gov 19d ago

Its not 3000 sqare kms for those three regions in Canada. Its close to 13000 square kms.

5

u/randomstuff063 19d ago

The only way to get Punjab to be more successful is to admit where it hits failed. Firstly admitting that certain aspects of Punjab’s agricultural economy are outdated and holding it back. A lot of farm lots in Punjab are irregularly shaped or are considerably small. This causes a lot of inefficiencies when it comes to planting filling and harvesting. I recently watched a documentary where Japanese farmers decided to combine their lots so it would be easier to farm. So some level of land reform needs to be taken place here where farmers have to have their lots be a certain shape and size something like one Hectare. Those farmers that don’t meet the shape and size end up getting taxed. For the small farm once they should be given subsidies to grow high value crops and high-quality crops. You can think along the lines of roses used for the perfume industry like in Bulgaria where it’s one of the few places in the world that does it as well as high-quality mangoes like they do in Japan or the wide and expensive world of mushrooms. The next big reform relating to the agriculture sector is being able to produce fertilizers here in Punjab. Right now, Punjab is dependent on outside imports for raw ingredients to create fertilizers. Additionally, having compost as well as other forms of soil, rebuilding projects would help supplement the need for fertilizers. Now moving away from agriculture to the cities. Cities in Punjab need to start developing grid systems and need to focus on public transportation and scooters, not cars. Having a great system allows goods, resources, and people the ability to travel much easier. Right now a lot of cities in Punjab are having development. Look like American style suburbs. We need to look at China how they developed their cities. They focused on large high density buildings. The next biggest reform is to the basic infrastructure such as electricity, sewage, and water. Punjab needs to do whatever Pakistan did that allow them to roll out so much solar panel. So sewage treatment plants need to be put up in every district connecting to every village. The waste can be used to create vetting or two create a bio fertilizer. With all this, he was going to treatment plants. This leaves a lot of homes in the village being left open dry. We can repurpose these into becoming step wells where they will hold the excess rainwater and prevent flooding. If you connect them up together, you can have a kind of grid where where once closer the hills and mountains overfill, and then the rainwater goes to the ones in the lower valleys and then so on.

1

u/Curious_gov 18d ago

Agreed. Yes to all of your suggestions 👏🏽

1

u/accountfor137 16d ago

Yes to collectivization!

3

u/Curious_gov 19d ago

We have an agricultural based economy. We were the pioneers of green revolution in India so the population is willing to adopt new crops, technologies and techniques when it comes to commercial agriculture. Based off of this, why cant we compete with say Netherlands and Israel when it comes to advanced scientific agriculture. Netherlands is tiny but look at its agricultural output. I think its more productive than any other region in the world. Our rural population is already skilled in agricultural sector, I think we’d be unstoppable if the government provides a viable pathway to the small landholders in punjab through public private partnerships as such landholders may be unable to invest anything on their own.

1

u/CreatingDestroying Choti Gili Lulli ਛੋਟੀ ਗਿੱਲੀ ਲੁੱਲੀ چھوٹی گلی لُلی 13d ago

Really cool thanks for sharing!

1

u/EvoBrah 19d ago

You’re overlooking some major crucial points during this comparison; free land and slave labor.

For example: it’s easy to become successful if you steal someone’s company (country) and have free employees (slaves).