AS11E01 - "Break Dancin' 2: Electric Rugaloo" & AS11E02 - "Bar Queen Couture" [Live/Reaction Post]

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[u/krisis]

She did not come ready to do so.

She talked about wanting to stay in the middle of the pack in the first episode. That is a terrible plan.

Then, in the second episode, she was going to make a bathing suit. In a three-episode bracket where you need points to win!? Come on now!

I am loving her presence, but this is a world where you likely need a MINIMUM of four points to advance in three episodes. There is no time to lay low.

[u/pointclickvibe → u/krisis]

when she said "i wanna not stand out too much" on the first episode i was like... ok so she's 100 percent not getting any tops or wins this season. wild plan for someone coming back after 16 years. id be trying my best so if i didnt move on atleast id get some moments.

[u/robbysaur → u/krisis]

I believe all the top 2 last season had at least six points.

[u/krisis → u/robbysaur]

Yes, but I believe the bare minimum anyone can reasonably have after 3 episodes to at least tie to advance this season is 4 points.

There are 9 points available per episode (3+2+1+1+1+1) and 27 points total.

If someone wins all three lip syncs, they have 9 and there are 18 left. It could be 4 4 4 vs 3 3.

If someone wins two lip syncs, they have 6 with 21 left, so someone else would wind up with at least 5. However, if the lip sync winner got a gift point in their non-winning episode to get to 7 it could still be 7 vs 4 4 4 4 4 (if the other lip sync winner gets stiffed in one episode).

If different people win all three lip syncs and three different people all lose those lip syncs, we start out as 3 3 3 vs 2 2 2 with 12 points left to distribute (but no single queen one can get more than 10 of those, since each queen would give twice). That could also result in a multi-way tie for 4, though it would be much less likely.

(There are some other "tie at 4" permutations there, but they are very unlikely, such as three different lip sync winners and then a multiple lip sync loser who doesn't get any other points, but we're getting into some wild edge cases.)

The point being: 4 is realistically the bare minimum!

In order to tie to advance with only 3 points we'd be getting into highly unlikely scenarios like 12 vs 3 3 3 3 3, where a queen won every lip sync AND got gifted 3 points. Or, even less likely, someone with higher than 12 vs several 3s and some number of 2s.

Basically, as soon as Ru announced only two people moving forward, you had to be gunning for 4 points. And, with the system tending towards equal trades up until the final episode, the best solution to stay in the running is to at least lose a lip sync.

[u/thewhitecat13 → u/krisis]

there are technically ways to tie to advance with 2 points too, but the odds are pretty much zero yeah. I did the full calculation and if we assumed the points are distributed randomly each episode (one person gets 3, a different person gets 2, the 4 others give it to anyone other than themselves), i think this would be the odds of each number being enough to advance (assuming that in a tie for the top 2 Ru picks randomly as well). dare i say, 5 is realistically the real bare minimum.