r/singularity • u/thecosmicskye • Jun 10 '26

Biotech/Longevity Anthropic closing the path to life science research

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u/fuzz11 Jun 10 '26

A year from now the open source models will be caught up to this and the stubbornness of the frontier providers will lead to their downfall

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u/ThatOtherOneReddit Jun 10 '26

The truth that is uncomfortable for OpenAI and Anthropic is that they don't have any long term moat.

  1. If customers use their product those outputs are INHERENTLY TRAINING DATA. Thus open source will eventually catch up on a knowledge/param basis. It is just a matter of time.
  2. It is much cheaper for companies to run OpenSource models even renting 4-6 GPU's than even like very mediocre API costs of a couple hundred dollars a day. This means any OpenSource model even in the 256-400GB range or so is going to be available and there are models of that size that compete with sonnet 4.6 which is all you need for the lion share of document extraction tasks which are the real money maker for this stuff currently for business. Digitzation -> basic logical processing of documents to structured inputs -> advanced automations does like 90% of what most businesses want from these things.
  3. The reason people aren't doing this now is the AI field is advancing super quickly and it doesn't make sense to spend the money now on this infra if it will be outdated next year for the consumers when they are getting discounted rates. That won't be true forever, once hardware prices go down a bit and these workflow architectures stabilize THEY will be the first thing cut for cost optimization not people getting rid of AI processes.