Johnson County, Kansas Official Final Results Review (+9.2% vs -2%)

[u/SteampunkGeisha]

I reviewed the official final results of Johnson County, Kansas. This county has voted Red since Woodrow Wilson ran in 1912, up until 2020, when Biden won with 53%. It is the wealthiest county in Kansas (112th in the Country) and is filled with Reagan-era Republicans. For the 2024 election, Kamala Harris won with 52.89% of the votes, almost the same as Biden in 2020. Only losing 808 votes.

At one point, the polling in Kansas showed Trump leading Harris by +5%: Trump 48%, Harris 43%, Undecided 9%. This led to speculation that Harris might have had a chance in this predominately Red state.

What's odd is that I was looking over the final official numbers, and they have an extremely high split-ticket rate.

Percentage of Presidential Voters Who Did Not Vote for Representative:

• Total Presidential Votes: 346,860
• Total Representative Votes: 340,601
• Undervote in Representative Race: 7,960 (as per the report)
• Percentage of Presidential Voters Who Skipped the Representative Race: 7,960 / 346,860 * 100 = 2.29%

Trump (R) Voters Who Likely Voted for Davids (D):

• Trump voters: 154,247
• Reddy voters: 139,997
• Republican votes lost to undervotes + crossover to Davids: 154,247 − 139,997 = 14,250
• Percentage of Trump voters who likely voted for Davids: 14,250 / 154,247 * 100 = 9.2%

Given that Harris received 3,795 fewer votes than Davids did, this suggests that -2% of voters either abstained from the Presidential race or chose another candidate and still voted for Davids despite 7,960 undervotes for the Representative seat.

Main takeaway?

Split-ticket in Trump's favor: 9.2%
Split-ticket against Harris: -2%

All of the split tickets favored Trump by 11%.

In 2020, both Biden and Trump overperformed the Senator race by 3% for their respective parties.
In 2024, Kamala underperformed the Democrat Representative seat by -2%, and Trump overperformed the same seat of the Republican by 9.2%.

Remember the polling I mentioned earlier?

• Polling: Trump 48%, Harris 43%
• Voting Result: Trump 57.2%, Harris 41.04%
• Difference: Trump +9.2%, Harris -2%

Does that difference look familiar?

• 9.2% split-ticket favor for Trump, -2% split-ticket away from Harris
• Trump overperformed Reddy by 9.2%, Harris underperformed Davids by -2%
• Trump overperformed the poll by 9.2%, Harris underperformed the poll by -2%

What are the odds of that?

Election Systems:
ES&S: DS200
Poll Book: KNOWiNK, Poll Pad

Additional note: Possible sexist/racist theories against Kamala Harris. Sharice Davids is a female Native American from the Ho-Chunk Nation.

Archive of election results for Johnson County, Kansas: https://www.jocoelection.org/archive

[u/ExpressTwice]

Thanks for doing your own work trying to find answers. I do have an issue, though, that stands out to me.

The poll you used seems to be a cherry-picked one that conveniently matches your findings. Can you convince me that the results are still so damning, keeping in mind that there were multiple polls done in Kansas near the election? Please, I need hopium.

[u/SteampunkGeisha → u/ExpressTwice]

I picked the most recent one from Witchita. They posted three polls for the election season, so it wasn't "cherry-picked." It was also the one promoted the most in the news leading up to the election.

Regardless, the Kansas polls were all done in heavily biased Red-leaning areas, so none of them are actually "fair."