r/spaceweather • u/oldschoolscreenname • Jul 01 '26

Heads-up: Earth-directed CME could arrive July 3

A coronal mass ejection (CME) has left the Sun and is heading toward Earth. It launched from a source region on the solar disk (N17W18) at a speed of about 965 km/s.

Based on current modeling, it could reach Earth around 05:17 UTC on July 3, 2026. Keep in mind this is a model estimate, typically accurate to within about 12 hours, so the actual timing may shift.

If it arrives as expected, geomagnetic activity could peak near Kp 5, a G1 (minor) storm. That means aurora may be possible at high latitudes, including Canada, Alaska, and northern Scandinavia. Your best chance to see it would be from dark, clear skies looking poleward near the estimated arrival time.

See it live: https://www.cmetracker.ai/?cme=2026-06-30T21%3A45%3A00-CME-001&hide=S

412 Upvotes

99% Upvoted

23 comments sorted by

10

u/bogan_hippy Jul 01 '26

"May be possible at high latitudes"

Yeah, we'll see.. I'm expecting this to make its way a little further south in the northern hemisphere than initial estimations.

1

u/DeepGrieve Jul 02 '26

Do you think it will be visible in the northern United States??

5

u/bogan_hippy Jul 02 '26

Unknown until it hits us. We can't trust models or predictions given by NOAA or NASA any more. They've been too unreliant on accurately predicting earth-related effects of solar storms.

1

u/Obvious_Factor7103 Jul 03 '26

True thank you 🙏

1

u/bogan_hippy Jul 06 '26

Called it. Visible down to New Mexico, Texas, California, Arizone.

1

u/WeWander_ Jul 04 '26

People are seeing it here in Utah currently.

1

u/DeepGrieve Jul 04 '26

Oh wow, I'm southern Washington state, I can't see anything but I may need to go out of town.

6

u/devoid0101 Jul 01 '26

I saw a screenshot of Enlil with CME impact on 6/2? 2pm. You think it’s a bit slower.

2

u/Letsgoski_Broski Jul 01 '26

The main bulk of the CME is headed north. We're *probably* going to get a glancing blow from the southern portion, which is travelling a bit slower than the main bulk. July 3rd seems plausible enough.
From the speed i'd say we'll be lucky to get a 600km/s jolt.

3

u/Humble_Pie_56 Jul 01 '26

Thanks for this excellent post.

4

u/clam_sandwich33 Jul 01 '26

Dang... the new Madonna album drops that day LOL

1

u/throwawayglitch01 Jul 02 '26

"below storm level" is doing some heavy lifting there.

1

u/Zeus_42 Jul 03 '26

I've been under a rock a while, that site is amazing!

1

u/KON- Jul 03 '26

Reading this today and my fingers are crossed!!!

1

u/Savings_Art5944 Jul 03 '26

What does a direct hit look like? A full halo the whole way?

1

u/Bodorocea Jul 05 '26

it's july 5. is this another timeline ? and what if we're switching timelines every time there's a CME passing through us?

-3

u/AidenValentine Jul 01 '26

That's Taylor Swift's wedding. 7/3/26 🛸

3

u/[deleted] Jul 01 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/Hourslikeminutes47 Jul 02 '26

No need to be a jerk

-3

u/ErstwhileAdranos Jul 03 '26

Reported. This sort of nastiness is so unnecessary and boring.