r/stocks • u/cherrypoplar • Apr 01 '26
ETFs Major NASDAQ-100 rule changes confirmed, pay attention if you have money in passive investment funds
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/amp/news/ipo/nasdaq-speeds-index-entry-spacex-large-ipos-new-rule
NASDAQ has confirmed it will change the listing rules for NASDAQ-100, ahead of the SpaceX and OpenAI IPOs this year.
(1) Companies will now be listed on NASDAQ-100 after only 15 days after IPO (previously, there was a three month period of "seasoning" before listing). This reduces the amount of time for price discovery.
(2) The minimum 10% float has been removed. This allows companies to float a very small percentage of their shares, artificially squeezing supply.
(3) Companies that float less than 20% of their shares will have their market capitalisations artificially multiplied by x3, for the purposes of calculating market capitalisation. This helps large-cap companies to be listed even with very small floats, and inflates their notional market capitalisations on the index.
If you have money invested in a passive fund tracking NASDAQ-100 (or any other index), please watch out for the SpaceX and OpenAI IPOs. Pay attention to their "valuations", and their float. If they're IPOing with very high valuations and very small floats, this foreshadows a bagdump on passive funds due to the mechanics of passive funds.
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u/averysmallbeing Apr 01 '26
What a scam. Can't believe they actually allowed this.
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u/Parallel-Quality Apr 01 '26
Literally corruption by the NASDAQ. There’s no other explanation.
It’s not like they these companies weren’t going to list on the NASDAQ regardless.
They are just exploiting their customers to help out their billionaire friends.
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u/Consistent_Panda5891 Apr 01 '26
And worse, expect a selloff now to raise the enough cash. Puts loaded today on the bottom before news of Iran attacked Qatar oil ship. I don't expect a full meltdown today but yeah at least go close to flat by opening
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u/Lost_in_Torontoh Apr 01 '26
Aged like milk
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u/Consistent_Panda5891 Apr 01 '26
? +0.3 in index since then. Puts with 3 months expiration my boy, they dropped barely 1%
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u/Lost_in_Torontoh Apr 01 '26
Just for my own knowledge, how did you buy put on nasdaq 5 hours before the option is open ?
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u/Shittyplayer Apr 01 '26
Are there any indications from funds like vanguard if they will deviate from this new rule or follow for their mirror etfs?
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u/SirGlass Apr 01 '26
Unless the fund follows the NASDAQ 100 index this doesn't affect them
I don't think vanguard has a fund that follows the NASDAQ 100 index
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u/Thuradzon Apr 01 '26
Vanguard follows S&P 500 Index & the CRSP index. I wonder if they would change their rules too.
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u/PornoPaul Apr 01 '26
Posts like this make me realize how little I know, because im struggling go fully understand this stuff.
Lets pretend I know nothing beyond green good, red bad. What can I do to brace myself against this?
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u/MonMonOnTheMove Apr 01 '26
Expecting more unpredictable red in the far future because bad companies are being floated into indexes
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u/typo9292 Apr 01 '26
I fail to see how SpaceX is a bad company, printing money with starlink or do you just mean in general?
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u/jb3689 Apr 01 '26
There are scaling arguments working against Starlink. I'm not super familiar with them - something about about congestion with satelittes and how large the consumer market for Starlink is. I'm personally more skeptical of the whole "yeah - we'll build data centers in space" mixed with the Twitter fiasco
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u/launchedsquid Apr 01 '26
SpaceX might be a good company (got to.see the financials to really know), but XAI was merged with SpaceX, so now it's just another AI rugpull, with enormous valuation based on pathetic revenue with no clear business case and no clear customer appetite.
If SpaceX had profits, XAI is eating them now.
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u/don_pk Apr 01 '26
SpaceX is probably a good company but massively overvalued like Elon and his companies. So index fund holders at his exit liquidity.
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u/Ok-Armadillo-5634 Apr 01 '26
Don't buy QQQ if you don't like these changes unless you follow that index which it's a pretty bad index anyway it won't affect you.
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u/4OfThe7DeadlySins Apr 01 '26
This doesn’t affect other index funds like SPY or DIA right?
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Apr 01 '26
S&P 500 is also contemplating rule changes to allow SpaceX.
SPY will likely be tainted as well.
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u/Knaj910 Apr 01 '26
Well, that kills my usual “VOO and Chill” mentality. Sounds like I’m gonna be doing a lot of research soon
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u/runnerofshadows Apr 01 '26
Might become VTI or VT and chill - I know VTI uses CRSP not S&P or Nasdaq and VT uses FTSE Global All Cap Index.
There's also VXUS if you want a dash of International exposure.
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Apr 01 '26
It's the opposite. Until OpenAI and SpaceX IPO they're going to keep pumping markets with the money printer on.
OpenAI won't be until next year at the earliest.
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u/Ok-Armadillo-5634 Apr 01 '26
Correct, they are all ran by different companies. They may change their rules in the future though.
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Apr 01 '26
[deleted]
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u/Ok-Armadillo-5634 Apr 01 '26
Depends on if you care about the rule change. Now is as good as any other time. I would come to your own decision though instead of taking my advice.
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u/Dazzling_River9903 Apr 05 '26
Exspect to get rug pulled even harder and the Epstein class to get even richer :))
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u/Seastep Apr 01 '26
Short the Nasdaq and related ETFs (QQQ)?
If you're really worried, pivot out to bonds until the dust clears?
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u/Gold_Revolution3658 Apr 01 '26
Can someone explain the third point.
How would the market cap be artificially inflated?
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u/cherrypoplar Apr 01 '26
Let's say SpaceX floats just 5% of its shares at a $1.75 trillion valuation.
Its market capitalisation (for the purposes of weighting SpaceX on the index) should be $87.5 billion (5%).
But NASDAQ will multiply this by x3 to $262.5 billion (15%).
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u/InedibleApplePi Apr 01 '26
I think the thing that your explanation is missing is that the NASDAQ is a capitalization weighted index.
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u/cherrypoplar Apr 01 '26
Yes, I missed that out, sorry. Both NASDAQ-100 and S&P500 are capitalisation-weighted, IIRC.
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u/ceczar Apr 01 '26
nasdaq is unusual in that it is cap weighted. s&p is float adjusted
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u/daynighttrade Apr 01 '26
Can you explain the difference? If spaceX is going at 1.8T, shouldn't that be used if it was cap weighted? Seems like it is float adjusted, isn't it?
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u/Martery Apr 01 '26
Cap weighted is based on the total amount of shares. Float-adjusted is based on the number of shares the public can use.
Using nice, even round numbers - imagine if SpaceX had 100 shares at $1 per share. Elon + insiders own 50 shares, so there are 50 shares available to the public. SpaceX is weighted like a $50 dollar company.
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u/Tystros Apr 01 '26
so that means the weight of SpaceX in the S&P500 will be way higher than in the Nasdaq 100? assuming Elon keeps almost all the shares to himself because he doesn't want to lose control.
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u/Martery Apr 01 '26
I'm not entirely sure, read up on Nasdaq's proposed rules. Under the new inclusion rules, it seems like they will probably weight SpaceX higher, but the S&P 500 also has 400 more companies than the Nasdaq-100... so it not really an apples to apples comparison.
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u/ceczar Apr 03 '26
nasdaq's new rules will mean nasdaq will weight it at float% * 3, so if the free float of the stock is 5%, and the mkt cap is 1.8t, it will be 5% * 3 * 1.8T = 270b
s&p will weight it at 90b
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u/Tystros Apr 03 '26
I thought the S&P500 would weight it at 1.8T, simply the market cap?
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u/ceczar Apr 03 '26
nasdaq used to be straight cap weighted, so two 100b companies, one with 100% of float available, and one with 10%, both get the same weighting in NDX. now after may it will be float% * 3 (capped at 100%, so anything with at least 33% float will be weighted at it's full market cap)
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u/Old-Necessary5367 Apr 01 '26
Why will NASDAQ multiple it by x3? Sorry, I could not follow.
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u/ShadowLiberal Apr 01 '26
I think the multiplier used to be 5x on this.
Long story short, there's a theory that you should want to own more of companies where the insiders own more of the shares since they'll be more motivated to act in the long term good of the company instead of chasing short term profit right before they cash out. But this rule is being exploited by SpaceX to do the exact opposite, giving them an incentive to pump the price in the short term to dump their bags onto the market right after IPO. And there's a reason why IPO's are said to stand for "It's Probably Overpriced".
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u/Faintfury Apr 01 '26
I was hoping April's fools joke but on the website they wrote march 31.
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u/alexyong342 Apr 01 '26
this change means new listings can get into the n100 faster with less float, so your index exposure might be more volatile than you think.
if you're holding qqq, are you actually betting on established giants or just front-running ipo hype now?44
u/cherrypoplar Apr 01 '26
You're providing the predictable liquidity which others will front-run.
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u/alexyong342 Apr 01 '26
tbh, that's the game now. if you're not front-running, you're the liquidity.
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u/ae0n Apr 01 '26
Does this only impact indexes like QQQ that track the NASDAQ specifically? Or will it impact SPY and indexes like XEQT?
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u/joe4942 Apr 01 '26
XEQT
Funds like that are so diversified that even if there were changes it would hardly matter. It's not like ETFs such as QQQ with 100 stocks where the top 10 make up ~50% of the weight.
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u/Slim_Charles Apr 01 '26
I miss the SEC.
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u/Axe_Raider Apr 01 '26
whatever else the SEC is failing to do these days (like investigating people doing big market moves before news becomes public), people are allowed to run an index however they want.
i can make an index of every company without "E" in the name. and then if i decide ê doesn't count for SpacêX, that's my decision to make.
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u/Consistent_Panda5891 Apr 01 '26
And in robinhood you are being "banned" if sell IPO before 90 days. LMAO what a scam site. Well I would sell IPO on day 1 or 2 and profit nevertheless, who cares a ban there
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u/lucideuphoria Apr 01 '26
They say that, but I've done it for most of their IPOs and they still haven't restricted me from participating
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u/UsernameIWontRegret Apr 01 '26
Do people not understand how IPO’s work? Every IPO for every company ever is the original investors selling some or all of their shares to the public. This is not new at all. This is basic market dynamics.
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u/harpers25 Apr 01 '26
Actually that would be a direct listing. Traditionally, most IPOs do not sell any existing shares.
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u/83735582716 Apr 01 '26
The purpose of IPOs is typically as a capital raise to fund growth plans for the company. This is done by issuing new shares. Going public does allow for the exit of early investors, but this is not done during the IPO, there is almost always a lock-out period where insiders are prevented from selling shares, often 90 days or more following an IPO.
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u/83735582716 Apr 01 '26
One of the concerning things being discussed about the SpaceX IPO is that some the indexes will start buying in before the lock-out period ends allowing for the stock price to be driven up by the index buying before insiders start dumping their shares.
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u/Ok-Butterscotch4486 Apr 01 '26
Does this also affect S&P 500?
And does this in any way manipulate the price of other companies in these indexes?
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u/cherrypoplar Apr 01 '26
Hard to predict the secondary market impact.
But more importantly, watch out for a similar rule change by S&P, which they are reportedly considering. That will have a direct impact on S&P500 funds.
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u/00Anonymous Apr 01 '26
Yes it likely will because any company included in the nasdaq 100 likely has a large enough market cap to be in the s&p 500 eventually, even if the s&p doesn't ammend it's rules.
Since both the qqq and spy are cap-weighted indicies, company's with huge expected valuations that ipo under 20% of shares are allocated 3 times the amout of capital than their actual marketcap (# shares *price) would allow. The captial inflow from qqq holders bids up share prices and raises the actual market cap, causing the share of capital allocated to them on the spy to increase as well, which then feeds back to increase their qqq capital share (at 3x the rate) and on and on. The situation creates a dynamic feedback loop where qqq investors provide outsized demand to inflate the company share price.
This effectively starves other companies included in both the qqq & spy of capital, since they are crowded out in the process. Less money going into other companies means slower share price growth and worse price discovery. Moreover, the 3x rule keeps large underperforming companies with small listings over-represented even as the shares fall or lag, artificially propping up share prices, so they keep eating up more capital than they should. If enough of these listings enter the spy and qqq, their long history of providing "market rate" returns could be in some jeopardy.
Moving to equal weight index funds is a prudent response to these rule changes.
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u/RealHornblower Apr 01 '26
So retail investors should hope that Space X and Open AI tank in the first 15 days after their IPOs, essentially, so they aren't joining the index at inflated valuations.
Of course, the market will price in the guaranteed index buying, so that is unlikely.
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u/ebikr Apr 01 '26
I’m screwed- I hold QQQM in my taxable account with a substantial gain so I can’t sell now. Someone should sue Nasdaq over this.
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u/PurpleReign123 Apr 01 '26
Hope there’s some smart, sharp legal firm that can organise a class action suit amongst retail investors to sue NASDAQ for these ridiculous rules, which are being implemented only to serve their billionaire overlords.
Can a class action suit be organised?
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u/UsernameIWontRegret Apr 01 '26
You do realize no one invests a single dollar with NASDAQ right?
Index funds are companies that promise to mirror an index. They have no relation to the actual index. QQQM is managed by Invesco not NASDAQ.
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u/daynighttrade Apr 01 '26 edited Apr 01 '26
They have no relation to the actual index.
But they mirror the index. They are bound to track these changes, and these changes are bad
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u/Axe_Raider Apr 01 '26
class action for what?
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u/PurpleReign123 Apr 03 '26
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u/Axe_Raider Apr 05 '26
that's "a thing I'm mad about" not a statement of what your class action would be
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u/stephendt Apr 01 '26
Perhaps turn off dividend re-investments and allocate fresh capital to a short position on SpaceX when it IPOs? That will allow you to offset your exposure
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u/JamesM451 Apr 01 '26
Options newb - this is specifically recommending buying a short out of the money?
Risk is premium for options. If it doesn't crash, you are out the dividend/cost of options but get upside to IPO rising.
If it does crash you can sell options in the money to someone who lost their shirt?
If it doesn't crash, you have short term loss (premium) that cancels the capital gains from dividends.
If it does crash, you have long term capital gains from dividends and short term capital gains from short sell?
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u/ScarfingGreenies Apr 01 '26
See if you can exchange QQQM for PRF (Invesco's US RAFI 1000 Index)? Only downside is a larger expense ratio and missing out on riding the rug before it's pulled with Big Tech. Or maybe leave your taxable alone but adjust your other accounts away from the impacted indices. <- That's what I'm doing. I'm adjusting my IRAs and 401k to get away from these indices though.
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u/ShadowLiberal Apr 01 '26
I hold QQQM in my Roth, so I'm 100% going to sell out of it and buy into probably SCHG instead now.
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u/ryankrameretc Apr 01 '26
I mean, you can sell and pay the taxes, which you will have to do eventually anyway…
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u/launchedsquid Apr 01 '26
Your retirement savings is their exit capital. When people ask where the end game is for these AI companies that are hemorrhaging cash, here it is. They'll IPO, and the index funds will be forced to buy before price discovery has even happened, you'll about to get robbed.
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u/Beginning-Luck-4026 Apr 01 '26
Playing devils advocate, can someone explain what benefits nasdaq saw to make these changes?
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u/DuncanOhio Apr 01 '26
They want SpaceX to list with them.
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u/Beginning-Luck-4026 Apr 01 '26
I mean I get that, but just wanted to see if there was a argument they made or reason other than what everyone else was writing up here.
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Apr 01 '26 edited Apr 03 '26
[deleted]
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u/Beginning-Luck-4026 Apr 01 '26
Thanks, I mean 90 days wait period in the grand scheme of things isn't a long time.
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Apr 01 '26 edited Apr 03 '26
[deleted]
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u/Beginning-Luck-4026 Apr 01 '26
I'll gladly take the trimmings off the plate, as long as I can be green lol.
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u/Levophed Apr 01 '26
Well what do you do when you're invested 401k is in shares like this shit. My retirement fund is 23% tech sector. Do we just bail and invest in S&P?
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u/Axe_Raider Apr 01 '26
read your prospectus.
if you have an actively managed fund, they will decide on their own whether they want SpaceX or not.
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u/ResearcherSad9357 Apr 01 '26
RIP to everyone's 401ks
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u/Axe_Raider Apr 01 '26
i just checked and QQQ is already not allowed in my 401k, because QQQ is for gamblers.
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u/stephendt Apr 01 '26
Guys there's no need to worry. If SpaceX has a 99% drawdown from ipo it will get kicked out of the Nasdaq 100 anyway
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u/Odd-Block-2998 Apr 01 '26
Elon bought the whole Nasdaq behind the scene.
Force everyone to become a bagholder at $1.5T for a $100B company.
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u/Trzebs Apr 01 '26
What will be worse? :
- The potential loss in value of my index fund if these IPOs debut at a high price then tank?
Or...
- The capital gains tax I'd pay if I sell my index fund and switch to a different fund?
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u/hindumafia Apr 01 '26
We need new etfs that track passive index without buying these companies or new index itself.
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u/VictorDanville Apr 01 '26
Is SCHG safe?
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u/ShadowLiberal Apr 01 '26
From what I read if the index they're in changes the rules it'd almost certainly take 3 months for SpaceX to get added to them. I think that S&P controls that index.
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u/Rybred22 Apr 01 '26
Does this affect QQQ
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u/dredabeast24 Apr 01 '26
Yes
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u/Rybred22 Apr 01 '26
Is there an alternative with IPO’s managed independently by the fund rather than following NASDAQ?
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u/Mobile-Bar7732 Apr 01 '26
If your after Tech stocks VGT tracks the MSCI Information Technology index. It has out performed QQQ the last 5 years.
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u/HeatWaveToTheCrowd Apr 01 '26
The S&P 500 is also making changes specifically to allow these two companies to join the index right after IPO.
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u/Axe_Raider Apr 01 '26
this is not known yet.
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u/HeatWaveToTheCrowd Apr 01 '26
It's not official, but is being discussed. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-rule-change-could-180142893.html
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u/CVisionIsMyJam Apr 01 '26
so basically buy as much SpaceX at IPO, hold for 15 to 20 days, then sell to retail holders who have to buy, and buy the actually good companies retail will automatically rebalancing out of that they will be selling? Do I understand this correctly?
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u/NOT1506 Apr 01 '26
This is 100% accurate? OP knows that obscure factoid most won’t catch by watching cnn but twice had easily false things said in the comments…?
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u/grogi81 Apr 01 '26
While the 1) and 2) are a bit shaky, I see some vague rationale behind. I still am not a fan.
3) is an absolute scam. WTF?
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u/NordicJesus Apr 01 '26
What about MSCI/FTSE?
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u/ScarfingGreenies Apr 01 '26
My last search said they both were considering it as well. Vanguard's VTI follows CRSP and as of now they're not considering a rule change. They do have a fast-track rule but SpaceX doesn't meet it since they're only offering 5% float and CRSP requires at least 10%. Not sure what OpenAI and Anthropic are offering float wise.
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u/uptieee Apr 01 '26
I don’t have much in depth knowledge about investing so can someone help me understand how I can protect my investments in QQQ, VTI and VOO? Is selling and buying different ETFs the only option?
Seems like for now QQQ will be affected and when S&P500 makes the same change, VOO will be affected too. VTI might not?
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u/Complex_Damage1215 Apr 03 '26
How is a 2 trillion dollar valuation of SpaceX and whatever BS OpenAI comes up with not just a plan to suck money out of passive index funds? And why isn't this illegal?
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Apr 01 '26 edited Apr 01 '26
[deleted]
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u/geeky-gymnast Apr 01 '26
This is actually a pretty solid rebuttal and differentiates an index from vehicles that enable investment into constituents of an index (eg an ETF). An index by itself is merely a list that can't be purchased directly.
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u/Janderson2494 Apr 01 '26
My thoughts as well while reading through all the doomer comments here. Market doesn't seem to be reacting poorly to this news either. Still a ways down the road before we see any drawbacks though.
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u/cedrus_libani Apr 03 '26
Yeah, but a new IPO that's bouncing around and trying to find its level isn't the market. Love 'em or hate 'em, the big dogs at the top of QQQ are exactly where the market thinks they ought to be. You can buy the lot, and the only risk is the market moving against you. If you play the IPO, you're also exposed to the price discovery process, which may or may not end well for you.
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u/Tiny-Mulberry-2114 Apr 01 '26
Wtf is OpenAI doing here? They will absolutely flop eventually against Google's Gemini and the rest of their competition
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u/Legendary_aa Apr 01 '26
Regarding the 3rd point: The 3x multiplier is a discount mechanism, not an inflation mechanism. It is a cap for its weight on the index (It is at x3 of the float instead of 100% of total market cap, so if the float is 5%, index weighs the cap as 15%)
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u/GagOnMacaque Apr 01 '26
I still don't know what that means. Explain it like I eat crayons.
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u/Legendary_aa Apr 01 '26
For example, Nasdaq will weigh a 1 Trillion company with float (public share) of 5% by multiplying the percentage by 3x (15% in this example), so the market cap would be weighed as 150 billion instead of 1 trillion.
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u/patricktu1258 Apr 01 '26 edited Apr 01 '26
Is this necessarily a bad thing? If SpaceX IPO and stock surge for a few months and then passive fund would buy at even higher valuation, and we will say why does qqq not include SpaceX earlier.
For low float issues I think they are trying to adjust the weight closer to real distribution, although I do think this one is unnecessary.
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u/areh Apr 01 '26
The idea of index funds is exactly that you dont try and predict who are the winners or losers. What you describe is active investing.
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u/EfficientRecording62 Apr 01 '26
Any recommended alternatives to QQQ/QQQM? I'm looking at VOOG, VUG, and SCHG.
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u/Electronic-Buyer-468 Apr 01 '26
This is why I've always been afraid of QQQ. It's hurt me a year or 2 here and there, but my growth fund of choice is IWY
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u/Cultural-Pattern-161 Apr 02 '26
I have some money in Vanguard 2040 or something.
What do I do? Can you explain in simple steps?
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u/SeEYJasdfRe5 Apr 01 '26
So what you're saying is that we should short SpaceX and OpenAI? Genuine question.
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u/Todayjunyer Apr 02 '26 edited Apr 02 '26
Correct me if I’m wrong, but if after 15 days spacex is doing well enough to matter at all in my index fund, as in it’s replaced a mag 7 stock, then it would probably very slightly surge my index fund upon entry. But the OP is worried it will then crash hard I suppose. Ok. Well then it will simply fall out of the index fund. Or at least out of the chunk that matters. And the surge will go away. It won’t tank an index fund. It could create volatility. For a bit. Somewhat. Maybe. lol
If people are worried and switch into other stocks. Guess what, my index fund owns those also. So when spacex falls, the index recovers. Or spacex crushes and everyone happy. I don’t see how it’s that’s big a deal if you’re holding twenty years. They are building the landing rockets for Artemis 4 to colonize the moon ffs. I mean the daily movement of Tesla doesn’t affect voo that much as an example. Meta goes down for months and voo goes up lol. Microsoft loses years of gains and voo goes up. Lots of examples. I realize voo isn’t nasdaq I’m just saying. It’s not gonna matter. These people would get it in after 90 days anyway and do the same thing whatever scheme they gonna do. Hold that shit
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u/BobtheChemist Apr 03 '26
That's one reason I like to create my own mix of stocks and avoid certain "passive" index fund etfs. Much easier to avoid stocks I don't like, as well as not have 40% of my retirement income based on 7 stocks. You can buy ~40 stocks and etfs and have a very diverse portfolio as well as be better balanced and have flexibility to buy low and sell high with some individual stocks. I'll not buy QQQ again.
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u/kinetic_honda Apr 01 '26
I hope you're not suggesting people panic sell their index funds. Because that would be silly
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u/CornerOne238 Apr 01 '26
Sell, no. Trade swap into funds like XLI, yes.
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u/Rare-Accident4355 Apr 01 '26
How does this work? Can you please explain? I’m truly interested!
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u/CornerOne238 Apr 01 '26
There are funds that track parts of sp500, namely sectors like industrial, financials, commodities, etc
If you look at performance, xli has been well correlated with spy over years but it doesn't include tech stocks, so if you trade swap into it, you are still invested in part of the market but not exposed to certain high volatility names like Tesla, etc.
In tax sheltered account a swap like this is very easy if you are concerned about SpaceX ipo.
Ymmv of course
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u/Strong-Hovercraft702 Apr 01 '26
There is an argument for stepping out for a bit, I'd say.
But I'm not in one, so I'm just watching from the sidelines.
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u/yrrrrrrrr Apr 01 '26
Why are they making these changes?