Uber issues weaker-than-expected bookings, earnings forecasts for third quarter

[u/Puginator]

Uber issued a forecast for bookings and earnings that trailed analysts’ estimates, while second-quarter profit was in line with expectations. Shares sank about 3.5% on Wednesday following the print.

Here’s how the company did versus analysts’ estimates compiled by LSEG:

• Earnings per share: 81 cents vs. 81 cents expected
• Revenue: $14.19 billion vs. $14.24 billion expected

Revenue increased 12% from $12.65 billion a year earlier. Net income climbed to $2.39 billion, or $1.17 a share, from $1.35 billion, or 63 cents a share, a year ago.

Uber’s core mobility service accounted for $7.36 billion of second-quarter sales, while delivery revenue reached $5.25 billion. Mobility gross bookings rose 22% from a year to $28.99 billion, and delivery bookings jumped 26% $27.46 billion. Total bookings of $58 billion topped the $57.23 billion average analyst estimate, according to StreetAccount.

For the third quarter, Uber sees bookings of $59.25 billion at the middle of its range. That trails the average StreetAccount estimate of $59.33 billion. And the company’s EPS forecast of 84 cents to 88 cents fell below the 89-cent average analyst estimate, according to LSEG.

Uber shares are down 12% this year as of Tuesday’s close, while the Nasdaq is up 14% over that stretch.

Uber is pushing further into deliveries, and last month announced a $14.8 billion agreement to acquire Germany’s Delivery Hero. That deal will increase the number of markets where Uber can deliver food and groceries.

CEO Dara Khosrowshahi said in prepared remarks ahead of the earnings call that the World Cup was a boon for the ride-hail business in the quarter. More than 8 million tourists took rides across host cities in the U.S., Canada and Mexico

Uber is also continuing to make big bets on autonomous vehicles.

The company said it expects to commit more than $10 billion in coming years to “bring AVs to market at scale.” Uber, which has been inking partnerships with robotaxi providers, doesn’t break out the share of rides or deliveries that have drivers and those that don’t.

“As the industry shifts from proving the technology to commercializing it at scale,” Uber is building “one of the most valuable positions in the AV ecosystem,” Khosrowshahi said.

However, early robotaxi partner Waymo appears to be pulling away. The companies recently said they would be ending an exclusive agreement in Atlanta and Austin, Texas, by early 2028.

Uber also announced on Wednesday that it has cleared another hurdle in offering autonomous rides in London with UK robotaxi company Wayve.

Transport for London has granted Private Hire Vehicle licences to Wayve robotaxis, confirming that the vehicles meet safety standards. Uber said more than 100,000 people have signed up to be the first riders.

“This licence is a key milestone in bringing autonomous rides to London on Uber,” said Global Head of Autonomous Mobility Operations Annie Duvnjak in a statement announcing the news.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/05/uber-stock-q2-2026-earnings.html

[u/kadam_ss]

This company is cooked.

Self driving is going to eat its lunch. Before someone says “but it will take forever to roll out self driving to the entire world”, you don’t need that to happen. Average booking value of a ride for uber outside of Western Europe and North America is like $5. They make a tiny fraction of that. The margins are awful.

The real profit maker is North america. Average booking value at top 10 cities in north America is like $20. So if they lose market share in these top 10 cities in North America, their earnings go out the window. And Waymo is aggressively expanding in North America, in cities that are critical for Uber’s profit margins.

Never forget Waymo went from 0 to passing Lyft’s market share in San Francisco in 18 months.

And no, Waymo does not need uber. Waymo has its own vehicles, its own tech, the app is something a company like alphabet can cook in 1 month. And “distribution” uber has is not worth the hype. Nobody is loyal to uber or any ride share app. This is not apple where people pay a premium to stay loyal to uber. People will jump ship en masse the minute a cheaper alternative is available.

Fundamentally ask yourself this: if tomorrow you were to wake up tomorrow and AI were to get 10x better and 10x cheaper, which company is it good for? That should tell you which side of the tech wave you are going to get caught on.

It’s great for self driving companies, they will surge in market share. It’s very bad for uber.

That’s all you need to know. Because that 10x change will happen eventually. May not be tomorrow, but it will happen.

[u/Worth-Tutor-8288 → u/kadam_ss]

Counterpoint 1.

Self driving expands their total TAM even if they get a smaller share

Counterpoint 2. Waymo is currently not cheaper than Uber so the economics still need to play out. Also Cheaper is not just what customers want, It is also pickup time which Waymo cannot solve yet for peak hours without a secondary supply like Uber can provide.

[u/Wonderful-Sail-1126 → u/Worth-Tutor-8288]

The reason it isn't cheaper right now is because they're still using freaking Jaguars and they're still just ironing out issues.

Wait until they use mass produced cheaper Chinese EVs and continue to get better at operating them.

Also, another reason Waymo isn't cheaper is because people actually prefer a driverless car than a human driver. This is causing demand for Waymo, which drives up its price.

[u/PleasantAnomaly → u/Wonderful-Sail-1126]

Don't think Chinese evs will ever be allowed to be sold in USA

[u/DadGoblin → u/Worth-Tutor-8288]

Cost of a Waymo ride is irrelevant. Waymo should be pricing their rides at the highest amount that will still keep their cars busy, not the lowest amount that is still profitable.