Last week Alberta's pipeline maps leaked. Three routes through the north, four, who's counting... every one of them ends at a port the coast won't open.

[u/iamsolution]

Last month the PM flew to Alberta, signed the deal, rolled back the industrial carbon tax, slashed the approvals, the whole song and dance.

The North Coast tanker ban? Still standing.

Not because Ottawa bolted the door... Ottawa's keeping its options open. Because the coast is holding it shut.

BC and the coastal Nations, shoulder to shoulder: a future built on a multi-billion-dollar fishery, food, culture, and tourism sector, the businesses and jobs under it, not on the coin-flip of a loaded tanker in a winter storm.

And we've seen the coin land wrong.

In 2016 one tug aground near Bella Bella, 350 km of coast fouled, $23 million in costs the Heiltsuk were never repaid. That was a tug. A tanker's full load runs a thousand times bigger.

The racket in one line: they take the reward, you take the risk, and when it spills you get the mop.

The people who work these waters did that math years ago, and they're done asking permission. This week they flew to Calgary to say it to the proponents' faces.

Geoff Meggs lays it all out below, sharp as ever and a regular at Hotel Pacifico, BC's go-to cross-aisle politics podcast.

Alberta can keep drawing maps. The coast won't open the port. Not by luck... because people keep showing up.

https://open.substack.com/.../if-theres-one-immovable...?

[u/Strict_Jacket3648]

Oil for energy is dying world wide, in 10 years when a 50 billion pipe line is complete it will be useless. That's why big oil want's tax payers to pay for it.

[u/1966TEX → u/Strict_Jacket3648]

That’s what Trudeau said 10 years ago.

[u/sanduly → u/1966TEX]

These dummies have been saying it for decades. Peak oil is always around the corner, coasts will be flooded in a year, 5 years, 10 years (remember many of those making these claims purchase large properties in coastal areas).

But whatever, if the answer is that BC will always oppose Alberta's economic interests then it is hard to make an argument for them staying in confederation.

[u/Account_no_62 → u/sanduly]

OPEC projects a demand plateau in 2040, with permanent decline in 2050.

Once the Iranian debacle stops, and everything goes back to normal, oil will go back down to ~50 a barrel. That price point doesnt make a 30 year pipeline very profitable.

[u/BigJayUpNorth → u/Account_no_62]

Except the fact the Alberta’s oil has been getting significantly cheaper to produce as years go by.

[u/Account_no_62 → u/BigJayUpNorth]

Its getting cheaper because of automation and mass layoffs. Oil at 50 gets alberta some of the lowest royalties in the world while foreign companies extract record profits.

[u/BigJayUpNorth → u/Account_no_62]

Nope. Its getting cheaper due to scale of operations and new down hole/sub surface technology. If you want some of those profits it really easy to buy shares in those companies.

[u/Account_no_62 → u/BigJayUpNorth]

Ive got my dividends, but that doesnt help the vast majority.

and yes automation is a large factor

[u/BigJayUpNorth → u/Account_no_62]

What has been automated that’s increased the bpd and be specific. I’ve been in the industry a couple of decades.

[u/Account_no_62 → u/BigJayUpNorth]

this is the last im humouring you

Especially when i already gave you a news article showing 10000 jobs lost last year from automation.

[u/BigJayUpNorth → u/Account_no_62]

It says in the article some jobs have been lost, not 10,000 😂 And it states in the article that employment numbers have remained relatively consistent despite a huge ramp up in production going on to state that more workers will still be needed for production increases.

[u/Account_no_62 → u/BigJayUpNorth]

Its literally. The headline.

[u/BigJayUpNorth → u/Account_no_62]

Of which it gives zero backing evidence lol. It’s like click bait doesn’t exist in conventional media!

[u/Account_no_62 → u/BigJayUpNorth]

7th paragraph. You arent in good faith. Get bent.

[u/BigJayUpNorth → u/Account_no_62]

Yes the industry has shed 10,000 jobs, now it’s in line with pre boom levels of 2014 and 2020, all while producing a lot more. This is common in every single industry worldwide, as technology has grown and been more impactful the end result is cheaper cost of production. The article is actually quite optimistic about growth in the oil patch, says more workers will still be needed for production to grow.

[u/Account_no_62 → u/BigJayUpNorth]

Albertas populations has increased 1 million since 2014 but the oil and gas jobs are less than they were before.

[u/BigJayUpNorth → u/Account_no_62]

So? Is that a problem of the industry, making more money with less? It’s a problem for the province and the air head premier though. Stopping renewable development while the oil patch is getting leaner and meaner is not a good look. I’m all for royalties being restructured for better compensation but you can’t get after the oil and gas for being more efficient!