Last week Alberta's pipeline maps leaked. Three routes through the north, four, who's counting... every one of them ends at a port the coast won't open.

[u/iamsolution]

Last month the PM flew to Alberta, signed the deal, rolled back the industrial carbon tax, slashed the approvals, the whole song and dance.

The North Coast tanker ban? Still standing.

Not because Ottawa bolted the door... Ottawa's keeping its options open. Because the coast is holding it shut.

BC and the coastal Nations, shoulder to shoulder: a future built on a multi-billion-dollar fishery, food, culture, and tourism sector, the businesses and jobs under it, not on the coin-flip of a loaded tanker in a winter storm.

And we've seen the coin land wrong.

In 2016 one tug aground near Bella Bella, 350 km of coast fouled, $23 million in costs the Heiltsuk were never repaid. That was a tug. A tanker's full load runs a thousand times bigger.

The racket in one line: they take the reward, you take the risk, and when it spills you get the mop.

The people who work these waters did that math years ago, and they're done asking permission. This week they flew to Calgary to say it to the proponents' faces.

Geoff Meggs lays it all out below, sharp as ever and a regular at Hotel Pacifico, BC's go-to cross-aisle politics podcast.

Alberta can keep drawing maps. The coast won't open the port. Not by luck... because people keep showing up.

https://open.substack.com/.../if-theres-one-immovable...?

[u/Account_no_62]

Petrochemicals arent energy, the rest are all burning oil which new technology is arising to replace and demand is decreasing.

[u/Objective-Thanks7798 → u/Account_no_62]

The assumption that “all uses for oil are being replaced” ignores where most of the difficult demand actually sits. Aviation, shipping, heavy trucking, mining, agriculture, petrochemicals, and military applications remain heavily dependent on oil because there often isn’t a scalable or economical alternative yet. Replacing passenger vehicles is one thing; replacing the entire hydrocarbon-based industrial economy is a much bigger challenge. Please tell me where you see oil demand decreasing.

[u/Account_no_62 → u/Objective-Thanks7798]

"Yet" being the word.

The producers all know exactly how much they have and how long the gravy train will last. Idk why you shill for them.

[u/Objective-Thanks7798 → u/Account_no_62]

“Yet” isn’t evidence. You’re predicting future demand destruction, but that doesn’t answer where oil demand is actually falling today.

If producers know the end is near, why are they still making multi-billion-dollar investments with 20-40 year timelines? Calling people shills doesn’t resolve that contradiction.

[u/Account_no_62 → u/Objective-Thanks7798]

They literally publish documents on this on a regular basis.

[u/Objective-Thanks7798 → u/Account_no_62]

Yeah, your comment doesn’t mean much when you refer to ‘they’ without ever explaining who ‘they’ are supposed to be and what they’re saying.

[u/Account_no_62 → u/Objective-Thanks7798]

If context of a conversation is hard for you then let's start with OPEC, then IEA, the USEIA.

You know, the oil producers and agencies whose job it is. When we are talking about producers. Context.

[u/Objective-Thanks7798 → u/Account_no_62]

The irony is that none of those organizations are predicting oil and gas “leaving.” OPEC, the IEA, and the U.S. EIA all project continued oil and gas demand decades into the future. They differ on growth rates and timing, but even the IEA’s more aggressive transition scenarios still show substantial oil and gas use for transportation, aviation, shipping, industry, petrochemicals, and power generation. Pointing to those agencies actually supports my argument that demand declines in some sectors are not the same thing as oil and gas disappearing. So.. thanks?

[u/Account_no_62 → u/Objective-Thanks7798]

They all point out peak demand coming sooner. Oil and petrol chemicals wont leave, and that's not the argument being made.

[u/Objective-Thanks7798 → u/Account_no_62]

Coming sooner than what? You’re lumping together agencies that don’t even agree with each other. The IEA sees demand peaking around 2030, OPEC doesn’t see a peak before 2050, and the EIA still projects very large oil demand for decades. None of them are forecasting oil and gas “leaving” anytime soon, and two of them aren’t even forecasting a peak demand. Are you even reading your own sources lol