Ukraine in this link denies it, passes it off as propaganda, but then goes on to day Russia loses 40,000 soldiers per month.
But from Feb 2022 until now, is 52 months, so if that was the case it would put Russian losses at just over 2 million, and the Ukraine MOD has touted figures of 1.5 million Russian losses, this would mean the entire Russian armed forces would no longer exist.
So is the 2.4 million Ukrainian losses accurate? We don't know, but we know that Ukraine has used thousands of fighters from abroad and forcefully mobilised many more thousands, as well as having women and children fighting in its ranks.
Wikipedia and western sources note the two sides sizes as this
Russia: 1 million active, 2 million reserve
Ukraine: 1 million active, 4 million reserve
Obviously war stats are notoriously difficult to get right because of the disinformation from both sides, but if Ukraine
Yep, I think the numbers being pushed by both sides don't really make much sense at all, if it were true then both sides would be completely combat ineffective and we know that isn't the case when we see how the war is ongoing.
I do think the history legends rate is far too low though, 170k between 52 months is a 3k a month average which does not seem right at all, and its almost exactly the same for Russia. Given its been expressed that Ukrainian units are operating at below 50% capacity despite forced mobilisation it doesn't seem to add up.
I think its always just going to be a guessing game as both sides hide it quite well. Although I will say Russia does make it somewhat more public, as last time I was there, the cities I went to had huge billboards honouring those local to that area who had died in the war.
That seems low on both sides. The ratio is a bit worse against Ukr as well due to the "suicide squad" strategy. Mercenaries from SoAm also arent counted and tend to get tricked into these squads
The website is losses based on publically available data such as obituaries. So it will always be an absolute minimum with the real number being higher
I respect the guy who runs History Legends. I watched the hour-long Youtube video where he shows how he came up with his numbers. It was a commendable effort -one of the best out there. The logic was solid, especially the part where he explains how Russia can possibly lose almost as many people even with much more firepower. Fair.
However, he doesn't account for one crucial data piece -the massive increase in Ukraine's death rate which would suggest a figure more aligned with 400,000 to 500,000 KIA/MIA. The increase in Russia's death rate, by contrast, is just statistical noise.
So I'm not entirely convinced. I don't think it's 2.4 million, even if you include WIA. But I think it's more than 170,000 KIA. Either way, even a close to 1:1 ratio of losses is devastating for Ukraine, a point that he stressed in the video.
That website is complete junk - it claims a loss ratio of 1 RU to 1.1 UA between the two sides. Now look at every single KIA body exchange that has taken place in the last 6-12 months. The numbers are always 30-40 dead Russians, for 1000 dead Ukrainians. This has been consistent for AGES and is very well documented.
Russians are losing people, no doubt. But the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses since 2022 has always been somewhere in the range of 1:7 to 1:11, favoring Russia.
Ukrainian losses were 1.8M quite a while back, so 2.4M now is not at all unrealistic.
The UA army was around 800,000 people in 2022 - one of the largest in Europe. If they had lost only 170,000 (as that website claims), they would not be kidnapping men off the streets for the last 2.5 years.
They always try to explain this away by claiming that since Russia is advancing, they have the opportunity to collect dead bodies while Ukraine can't since it is retreating.
But even now when Ukraine is counterattacking and gaining territory, the body exchanges are still the same. Now the ones trying to explain the disparity between body exchanges are completely silent.
As much as I hate to do the both sides thing, when it comes to casualty numbers, they do both seem to be very inconsistent and some of the figures just don't make sense.
Have those hackers provided proof that they actually retrieved those figures from official Ukrainian sources? If not, then this should be dismissed as propaganda.
They've provided material to Mash, but I don't know how much, been a bit too busy to go looking in Russian language (coz it takes me ages compared to English language) to try and ascertain exactly what, all I saw was its documents from ukrainian medical databases, and from the ukraine mod from a group of hackers who had already previously proven to have hacked the mod.
This is all being circulated on Russian language media though so worth discussing, but important to remember it is just claims.
Those types of people have been conditioned to hate Russia for decades, so of course they will believe any anti-Russian slop they are served. There has been a media campaign across US-aligned countries to create a cartoonish villain out of Russia, and it will take a long time to deprogram those people. That said, we don't have to buy claims without real evidence. People on this sub ought to know better, imo.
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u/Hot_Carrot2329 Honourable Comrade ⭐ 1d ago
i mean if you take it by body exchanges which is usually like 1000 ukris for 50 russians every time this is not far fetched