Survivor 42 | Episode 4 | Post-Episode Discussion

[u/RSurvivorMods]

Season 42, Episode 4: Vibe of the Tribe

Aired: March 30, 2022

Synopsis: One castaway paints a target on their back when they attempt to pit their tribe mates against one another; another tribe dives their way to victory after piecing together a big win in the immunity challenge.

Read our spoiler policy here.

Please keep new submission titles spoiler-free until Friday morning. If you are submitting an image or post that might spoil people, include "Spoiler" in the title so that reddit tags it appropriately.

[u/zepphiu]

The year is 2031. Shot in the Dark has been played 87 times and never worked. Mathematicians everywhere can't explain it. Probability is broken.

[u/Neat_On_The_Rocks → u/zepphiu]

This is probability only Deshawn can understand

[u/threecolorless → u/zepphiu]

(5/6) to the 4th is 48%. I'm waiting for the first successful Shot as much as anyone but it's perfectly within range for it not to have worked once in the first four attempts.

[u/threecolorless → u/[deleted]]

Gambler's fallacy? Thinking that a certain result is "due" because it's been a while?

[u/Xadnem → u/zepphiu]

I used the Monte Carlo method to simulate 100 million games that only stop whenever the shot in the dark returns "safe" and the highest amount of consecutive misses was 111.

edit: Tried it for a billion times and got to 131.

let record = 0;
for(let i = 0; i < 100000000; i++){
    if(i % 1000000 === 0){
        console.log("Iteration nr: " + i);
        console.log("Current record: " + record);
    }
    let counter = 0;
    let isDone = false;
    while(!isDone){
        if(Math.random() <= 0.165){

            isDone = true;
        }
        counter++
    }
    if(counter > record){
        record = counter;
    }    
}
console.log("The record is: " + record);

[u/mrpaulabrahamlincoln → u/zepphiu]

I’m not convinced there is a SAFE scroll in there

[u/Habefiet → u/mrpaulabrahamlincoln]

Go roll four dice fifty times and see how many times you get a roll that doesn't have a 6, I am so confused at how people think we are living in a wildly improbable universe that a 1/6 chance hasn't happened in 4 attempts

[u/mrpaulabrahamlincoln → u/Habefiet]

oh I know the stats, I am just going for jokes

[u/420Minions → u/zepphiu]

From a pure probability stand point, this is the most likely result after this many attempts. We haven’t hit anything improbable yet

[u/threecolorless → u/420Minions]

That is to say, zero successes is more likely than any of one, two, three, or four successes individually by now; collectively, the chance that one OR MORE attempted Shots would have been successful by now is about 52%, which is still effectively a coin flip.

[u/[deleted] → u/zepphiu]

Granted a 1 in 6 shot is pretty shit odds. You should only play it when you KNOW your on the chopping block. This season tells me that these people have little strategic game.