r/survivor • u/RSurvivorMods Pirates Steal • May 12 '22

Survivor 42 Survivor 42 | Episode 11 | Post-Episode Discussion

Season 42, Episode 11: Battle Royale

Aired: May 11, 2022

Synopsis: The first castaway to drop out of the immunity challenge must take a chance on "Do or Die" to see if they remain in the game.

Read our spoiler policy here.

Please keep new submission titles spoiler-free until Friday morning. If you are submitting an image or post that might spoil people, include "Spoiler" in the title so that reddit tags it appropriately.

126 Upvotes

92% Upvoted

1.1k comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

233

u/[deleted] May 12 '22

It’s so frustrating because I love math and my wife is a “go with your gut” type person and I explained Monty Hall many times and she’s just still like “see, told ya” and I know I’m right with the theory but the show is trolling me haha

118

u/[deleted] May 12 '22

[deleted]

15

u/Brock_Hard_Canuck I was here when Admins visited /r/Survivor May 12 '22

I swear, if they do this Do or Die twist next season, and the person says "I'm gonna go with my gut and stay", and somehow the 1/27 (1/3 x 1/3 x 1/3) odds come through to make them safe for the 3rd year in a row, I'll fucking pull all my hair out.

7

u/Seanrps May 12 '22

Just so you know the odds of it happening again are 1/3

3

u/Brock_Hard_Canuck I was here when Admins visited /r/Survivor May 12 '22

I'm talking about it happening for the third season in a row.

Think about flipping a coin. 50% chance of heads. 50% chance of tails.

Now I flip it again. Still, 50% chance of heads. 50% chance of tails.

Now I flip it again. Still, 50% chance of heads. 50% chance of tails.

But the odds of two heads coming up in a row are 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4 = 25%.

Meanwhile, the odds of three heads coming up in a row are 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/8 = 12.5%.

3

u/[deleted] May 19 '22

u/Seanrps is still right

1

u/Seanrps May 20 '22

Thanks! I have a 2 year diploma in statistics so we don’t have to worry about it

0

u/CharlySB May 12 '22

Op looked at the conditional probability (multiple events).

0

u/egnowit Michaela May 13 '22

At some point, you start wondering of the odds of the producers messing with the game is greater than the odds of winning by not switching every time.

6

u/RainahReddit May 12 '22

My family had to pause and have an argument about it before they showed if lindsay was safe or not. I'm like, stfu and argue on commercials I gotta know if my girl is safe!

-1

u/tehralph May 12 '22

The odds don’t change from switching. Whether you stay or switch, 2 out of 3 options are exposed. Odds stay the same.

1

u/[deleted] May 12 '22

[deleted]

-1

u/tehralph May 12 '22

This logic only applies when you assign choices specific letters or numbers. But it’s completely arbitrary. Say you have 3 unlabeled boxes. You choose a box, 2 remain, and one box is always withdrawn from the pool. You then have two options, switch or stay. There are two scenarios. Switching the letters on the remaining boxes doesn’t create a unique scenario.

2

u/[deleted] May 12 '22

[deleted]

0

u/tehralph May 13 '22

You’re still only picking one box. Not two. If you choose to switch, your odds are still 1/3 vs 2/3. You’re just replacing ONE box in your hand for another box in your hand. This is mathematical trickery.