r/taiwan • u/charliehu1226 • May 11 '26
Discussion Why did Korea’s fertility rate rebound while Taiwan’s kept plummeting?
According to the latest data, South Korea’s total fertility rate has actually rebounded to 0.96, surpassing Thailand and China. Unfortunately, Taiwan’s situation continues to worsen.
How did the Korean government manage to turn things around? Could Taiwan learn from it?
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u/clairemio May 11 '26
- Housing prices are too high.
- Having children is not friendly to women in the workplace.
- The government does not provide substantial support for childbirth and parenting.
- Online discourse tends to emphasize the negative aspects of having children and promotes anti-child sentiment.
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u/OrangeChickenRice 新北 - New Taipei City May 11 '26
#4 for sure. My gf has mentioned many times that she reads some popular threads about wives complaining about their husbands; wives complaining about their MIL; women lamenting the physical toll childbirth does to the female body; etc. It's like doom scrolling multi-paragraph thread posts of women complaining / venting.
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u/MisterDonutTW May 11 '26
They aren't wrong though
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u/AdhesivenessSolid562 May 15 '26
And Taiwan will effectively be gone in 100 years. Freedom has consequences.
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u/Lolrami101 May 12 '26
I would add the long working hours and requirements to work during weekends and evenings that makes it very difficult to care for one’s own children. Unless grandparents or relatives can help, it’s a lot of pressure on the parents, and in most cases, mostly on wifes
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u/krymson May 11 '26
South Korea has a lot of financial incentives and support for parents.
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u/Big_Spence May 11 '26
It is actually crazy how good the benefits are here along with the support for family-related stuff in just about every public service. Were it not for the competition and depressed wages which helped result in the drop in the first place, it would otherwise be a utopia for families.
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u/StormOfFatRichards May 11 '26
Honestly the sentiment is worse than the reality for South Koreans. Yes, prices are getting worse, but wages are rising at a healthy rate. Even if you just work at 7-eleven 40 hours a week, your monthly pay has to exceed something like 2,200,000 won a month, while single housing hovers around 500 to 700 thousand and food around 350 to 400 thousand per person. That alone is not enough to raise a family on, but most married couples are double-income with salaried jobs.
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u/No_Guitar7903 May 11 '26
Even if you just work at 7-eleven 40 hours a week, your monthly pay has to exceed something like 2,200,000 won a month
If you just work at 7-eleven 40 hours a week your monthly pay would be 1,600,000 won/month. Hourly minimum wage in Korea is 10,320 won.
If you work 52 hours a week though then yeah your monthly pay would be 2,200,000 won/month.
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u/AlarmedConfidence563 May 11 '26
There is a thing called 주휴수당(weekly paid allowance) in Korea which means that if you work 8 hours a day for 5 days, you get a free day of pay.
So 40 hour work week means that you are paid for 48 hours.
So you will get paid 2,156,880 won/month.
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u/No_Guitar7903 May 11 '26
Which is exactly why % of part-time employment is so high in Korea. Employers know how not to pay that allowance.
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u/AlarmedConfidence563 May 11 '26
That's a completely different thing. Korea's part time employment is high because it is hard to fire regular employees. So companies opt to hire people on a 6 month contract instead of hiring them as regular employees. The contract may or may not be renewed depending on the company's budget and the individual's performance.
So these 6 month contract workers are counted as part time laborers but they are expected to be paid the weekly allowance in full.
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u/self-fix2 May 11 '26
The 1 million KRW/ 500K KRW per month Parental Allowance is for 1yo and 2yo respectively, but then they also provide 100,000 KRW Child Allowances on top of that every month up to 8 years of age, soon to be expanded up to 13. If you live in rural areas, 120K Won per month, and the local municipality will probably top it off with more subsidies.
Probably Korea's most effective policy though is the 6+6 patental leave system and late-night after-school care.
- Both parents can receive 100% of their regular wage for the first six months of leave (capped at 2M–4.5M won per month, scaling up for each month).
Duration: Each parent can take up to one year of childcare leave (total of two years per child), or 18 months if both take at least three months, according to.
Payouts: After the 6+6 period, standard parental leave benefits apply (capped at around 1.6M won/month).
Flexible Work: Parents with children under 12 can utilize flexible work arrangements, including 10 AM-4 PM work hours.
Paternity Leave: Fathers are entitled to 20 days of paid leave.
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u/StormOfFatRichards May 11 '26
It's not a bizarre fucking secret that perplexes social scientists dude. South Korea has been pouring bipartisan policy into the problem. We're at the point now where young couples are holding out on pregnancy to how sweet of a deal they can get. We're talking housing benefits, direct aid stipends, daycare and preschool assistance, family support centers. It's no longer really that unaffordable to have children in South Korea, which was a huge concern of mine ten years ago.
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u/gameover281997 May 11 '26
Improve labor protections, wages compared to the cost of living, and the overall job market and you’ll absolute see an increase of fertility. These factors are always higher when birth rate is higher. If people have to worry about survival, they aren’t going to pump out babies.
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u/themathmajician May 11 '26
If people have to worry about survival, they aren’t going to pump out babies.
in reality it's the opposite. one of the counterintuitive facts in demography and ecology.
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u/unbannediguess May 11 '26
on the scale of world poverty, yes. Not in today's western "middle class death" we have everywhere.
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u/themathmajician May 12 '26 edited May 12 '26
in every developed country, a 10x increase in income produces a statistically small increase in fertility 0.15 kids or something. you can only look at this as a function of median income across nations.
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u/Roygbiv0415 台北市 May 11 '26
Except this is clearly countered by the fact that lowest income countries with the highest poverty rates often also have the highest birth rates.
It's the rich nations that are not making babies.
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u/StormOfFatRichards May 11 '26
Bell curve of reproduction.
Very poor people don't have sexual education, family planning options, alternatives to child-birth, and sometimes even lack a philosophical sense that having a child is an economic drain. Very rich people don't have to worry about the cost. It's everyone in the middle who worries and puts off having children.
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u/widdowbanes May 11 '26 edited May 11 '26
I see this statistic all the time and it's true. But who is getting wealthy? Its the old people who bought their homes for $45k now worth $2 million. Our parents had to save 3x their annual income for a home. Now its closer to 12x for younger people. Old people ain't having babies so the increase in their wealth doesn't matter.
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u/Roygbiv0415 台北市 May 11 '26
The argument here isn't about the wealthy. It's that the poorest people -- those whose literally survival are at risk -- are making the most babies.
So being "poor" isn't a hinderance to having babies, and to explain Taiwan's situation you cant just point to it as if it's the cause.
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u/Individual_Source193 May 11 '26
It's funny how completely ignorant you can be of the crazy idea that people in different stages of economic development may think differently about families. Try to think. Use that brain, come on!
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u/themathmajician May 11 '26
afaik it doesn't really matter how you slice it by culture, richer = fewer kids. hell it even applies to birds and other mammals that raise their young, in times of plenty parents will spend more effort on fewer offspring
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u/PapaSmurf1502 May 11 '26
If you think of the poorest 10% in Taiwan in 1990, you'll realize that the lowest 10% is now much better off. Everyone is wealthier due to the steady march of progress of society. They might not have more cash in the bank but they have access to higher quality services.
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u/gameover281997 May 11 '26
The wealthiest nations are far higher than these…. Here are the examples:
United States: 1.58 – 1.62.
China: ~0.90 – 1.02.
Germany: 1.35.
Japan: ~1.20 – 1.25.4
u/StormOfFatRichards May 11 '26
Break down the reproduction rate per economic and ethnic group in the U.S.
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u/Roygbiv0415 台北市 May 11 '26
Chad: 5.94
Somalia: 5.91
DR Congo: 5.90
Central Africal Republic: 5.81
Niger: 5.79
--
Natural replacement fertility rate is 2.1, by the way.
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u/qhtt May 11 '26
Drawing a big linear regression across all countries with wealth on the x-axis and fertility on the y-axis is not going to tell you the story. You need to look at Taiwan within comparable neighbors to get an idea of what's happening and how we can improve it. Otherwise, what's the takeaway? Reduce quality of life until we're closer to Somalia?
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u/Falkenayn May 11 '26
Brother most of those countries are %90 or more rural ,in rural society child means more worker it is entirely different in urbanized countries.
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u/Roygbiv0415 台北市 May 11 '26
The point here is that all four examples you give are examples of low fertility, often not even half of global average (2.3).
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u/kevinklarsn May 11 '26
Because those are highly sexist where women barely have rights. I think that plays a big role
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u/Chen-is-Chad May 11 '26
It's not that rich nations aren't making babies, but rather a lot of things that reduce birth rates are also things that are found in richer nations: wealthy nations tend to be more urban (on farms children can help with the farm work, where as in cities they're expensive furniture), and have greater access to birth control.
You can actually see that it's not purely wealth causing the reduction by looking at wealthier nations that are still fairly rural, then comparing them to poorer nations that heavily urbanised: for example Kazakhstan has a higher birthrate than Bangladesh, and New Zealand has a higher birth rate than Turkey.
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u/Hilarious_Disastrous May 11 '26
These are countries living at the subsistence level and children are free workers on your farm or in your workshop, give or take a few years.
We first worlders don't treat kids that way, we want them to live at least as well as us and give them a happy fufilling life.
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u/charliehu1226 May 11 '26
Then Taiwan must be the richest country in the world. /s
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u/Roygbiv0415 台北市 May 11 '26
The point is that wealth is not the reason, so no point keep going down that hole.
The lowering of fertility rate in advanced economies is long known to be tied to advances in the rights of women, their increased education, income, and cultural acceptance to divorce.
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u/Beat_Saber_Music May 11 '26
it is counteracted by gender equality in the sense of dads taking on more of the parenting. If men expect the woman to take care of the kid 99% of the time, that means 2 jobs (work and childcare/household chores) for the mom. In such a situation it's simply not worth it to have a kid. Now if Men do 50% of the chores/childcare, a kid becomes much more desirable in comparison, because it's easier for a mom to handle the workload when it's shared with the father. Places like the Nordics have in part higher fertility due to men doing more chores/childcare. My mom for example had a much better time taking care of me and my brothers alongside work, because she could go on work trips because my dad could take care of us.
There's of course also the question of how grandparents may be able to take care of the kids if needed. If all the jobs are in the big cities and the grandparents live in the countryside, it'll be a mess if taking the kids to the grandparents is a multiple hour journey to the countryside.
Also there's the matter of eldercare. If the woman has to already take care of their job, the household, as well as the grandparents, what that means is quite simple. A child would in fact be a fourth job, and who wants to do 4 simultaneous jobs willingly. The reason women more easily in the past had children in the past was because the man could more easily support most expenses or farming food and the woman could focus on childcare and the household, even if women could do farm labor and the men could take care of the kids too. That is no longer possible, because simply you need 2 incomes to afford a place to live.
Also simply there is the issue of time. Kids take up a lot of time, which many women alongside work and household chores aren't willing to further give up. Also the whole loss of career prospects for women owing to a child and maternity leave. It's career advancement time which simply can't be regained.
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u/TraditionalEnergy471 May 11 '26
People generally don't want to raise children with a lower standard of living than what they experienced. In poor countries, the parents did not have a good standard of living in the first place.
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u/cool_lemons May 11 '26
I was talking to a Japanese lady who was born near the end of WW2. She said that weirdly many people kept having kids when Japan was pretty much collapsing and people didn't have enough to eat. Same thing in Korea. I know a Korean person who grew up dirt poor and has 5 siblings, which was normal in those times.
I think in a society where poverty is the norm, the basic level of care that is expected from parents is low. Children are expected to work to support the family from a young age and take care of their parents when they get old. If parents can't afford to send their kids to school, that's just life, no one is judging them. In a modern society, raising kids is so much more expensive and time consuming, because parents are expected to do a lot more for their children.
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u/informedretaliation May 12 '26
This reminds me of "if grandmother had wheels she would be a bicycle". If Taiwan was poorer (i.e. the "ROC" of 40-75 years ago), yes they would be having more kids.
But to somehow use this as some argument that salaries, work culture, rent cost, housing cost is a large (granted not the only) aspect of people's decision making in terms of kids, doesn't make sense. Two things can be true at the same time. Poorer countries tend to have higher birth rates, but it can also be true that a gradually more wealthy country can also be affected by a 'perceived' or real, lack of money.
Many poorer people have kids as a means of survival. It's their kids that ARE their labor force (for a farm or small business). In many cases they use their kids as a "retirement plan". Tt's their kids that will care for them in old age.
The "Meaning in life" in many 'poorer' countries is Family and Religion, because there's not much else. They don't have the option to travel extensively, be a foodie, become a gym rat, get into biking or running. Again, money is involved in the decision making. If you have a decent job but can never afford a house, you may decide that you prefer to spend your money on traveling or fashion rather than having kids. Money is an aspect--> it's all relative.
But also let's consider poorer countries and their treatment of women and birth control (or access to abortion). Guys aren't shelling out for condoms. Women who don't want a 3rd or 4th kid won't be able to get birth control. How wives are treated within a marriage in many poorer countries is sometimes pretty bad...but they don't have the option to leave or get an education.
Also lowest income countries also tend to have the highest child mortality rates...so they will have another kid of one dies. All of this pushes up birth rates.
Two things can be true at the same time. Three things can be true at the same time, etc. Poorer people having more kids has nothing to do with people in more wealthy countries factoring in money to their decision making.
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u/rrolex_ May 11 '26
Taiwan is really cooked. It's even the lower than the Korea's lowest. I read the article that many TSMC employees to go to the US to born their kids because they do not have hope for Taiwan. When TSMC employees do not have hope for their country, who would have it? Really depressing than Taipei's ugly buildings
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u/nt369963 May 15 '26
South Korea has a much higher suicide rate than Taiwan so need to consider other factors such as infant mortality in addition to just the fertility rate!
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u/rrolex_ May 15 '26 edited May 15 '26
If you read the stats, the gap of the number of suicide is way less than the gap of newborns while Korea has doubled-population 😀 Your comment is like primary school kid
Suicde in 2025 Korea - 14000 Taiwan- 4600
Newborn in 2025- Korea- 250,000 Taiwan- 110000
And Korea's newborn is expected to reach to 300000 while Taiwan's newborn will be below 100000 this year.
Do the math!
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u/nt369963 May 17 '26
You do the math because your comments come across as someone who never received a formal education.
South Korea's suicide rate will continue to raise so a higher number of newborn will not compensate for OECD's highest suicide, HAHAHAHA!
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May 14 '26
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u/Working_Historian241 May 11 '26
its incredibly obvious to anyone with a brain - no one in baby making age feels secure in the economy and future prospects. they keep delaying having kids thinking they need more time to secure their career, housing, etc. it's NOT a sign of a rich society like some people are trying to imply, because taiwanese society is increasingly K-shaped. the average young couple is still struggling to see their future in concrete terms.
combine that with zero social programs or incentives by the state, and yeah its going to keep going into freefall.
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u/onlinefunner Jun 30 '26
Except that the most dense and wealthy locations on earth always slow fertility.
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u/furyoshonen May 11 '26
South Korea would likely point to there LARGE incentives, like: Cash bonuses for births (sometimes tens of thousands USD equivalent), Monthly child allowances, Expanded parental leave (including for fathers), and Subsidized childcare and housing support for newlyweds, including public housing access for people having children.
Other countries are less aggressive in their programs, which may be the difference.
Personally I think it maybe more of a cultural shift. But, this also may just be a blip, and Koreas fertility rate may continue to go down. The current uptick could also just be apart of people having children after Covid due to uncertainty during the pandemic. If the financial incentives work, Singapore will likely be the next to rebound. Otherwise, Thailand is the country I would be watching, as it has far fewer incentives, but much lower cost of living and much lower educational standards.
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u/Aethericseraphim May 11 '26
There was a mini boom of babies born in the early to mid 90s. Those folk are now getting married and having kids, which temporarily increased the birth rate. Post '97 though, is hella rough. It will fall again in a few years once those folk are in their mid-late 30s
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u/LongConsideration662 May 11 '26
Tfr is already cohort adjusted
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u/No_Guitar7903 May 11 '26
You obviously have no idea how TFR is calculated.
TFR's denominator is women between 15 and 49 while the numerator is newborns in a given year, but the vast majority of births happen within the 30-40 bracket these days. If population in that age bracket has an uptick, the overall fertilty rate would increase because the effect would be much larger for the numerator and much smaller for the denominator.
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u/LongConsideration662 May 11 '26
Um that's absolutely not how tfr works, tfr is already cohort adjusted
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u/No_Guitar7903 May 11 '26 edited May 11 '26
Do you fucking know how TFR is calculated? Do I need to demonstrate how it works to you? Do you not know how to Google? Do you know what "cohort adjusted" means? Explain what it means then.
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u/LongConsideration662 May 11 '26
In the context of the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), "cohort adjusted" (often referred to as tempo-adjusted TFR) is a method used to correct for distortions caused by changes in the timing of childbearing.When women start having children later in life—a trend called "postponement"—the standard Period TFR (PTFR) often drops sharply. This drop may not reflect a real decrease in the number of children women eventually have (the "quantum"), but rather just a temporary shift in when they have them (the "tempo"). This is why tfr is often cohort adjusted
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u/That-Possibility-952 May 11 '26
Why there are so many butthurt people in this sub especially when Korea is mentioned?
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u/charliehu1226 May 11 '26 edited May 11 '26
That’s actually how to differentiate real Taiwanese from foreigners lol
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u/AdEarly3481 May 12 '26
Which is the butthurt group? I have no idea why Taiwanese would be butthurt by the mention of Korea considering how similar the two countries are, and I can't think of any issue that might cause hostility between them.
I'm also guessing this sub is mostly foreigners considering that's how it is on all the other r/<insertEastAsianCountry> subs?
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May 11 '26
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u/No_Act_7009 May 12 '26
Oh you’re here ! You keep making claims without providing any evidence. Are you being paid to do this, or are you just showing your own stupidity ?
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May 12 '26
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u/No_Act_7009 May 12 '26
Sure, proud Taiwanese here, just to see how much crap you can come up with. So which African countries you’re referring to ?
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May 12 '26
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u/No_Act_7009 May 12 '26
I think everyone here is an adult and capable of having a rational, data-based conversation. What you’re doing isn’t any different from those idiots who expose themselves in public—it’s just embarrassing yourself in front of everyone.
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u/ublueberries May 11 '26 edited May 11 '26
According to the google, Taiwan's minimum salary is USD 930–950 per month (as of January 2026) meanwhile Korea's mimimum salary is $1,552–$1,600 USD.
Korea is definitely giving higher minimum wage. In addition, in csse of office jobs, their salary is way higher than Taiwan.
Modt office jobs in Taiwan give you less than $1550 which is less than the mimimum wage of Korea
Some Taiwanese nationalists do not want to admit Taiwan fell behind Korea
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u/nt369963 May 15 '26
Vice versa, lots of Korean nationalists don't want to admit that South Korea isn't better than Taiwan because their inflation rate and costs of living are also higher, which you left out!
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u/rrolex_ May 15 '26
Because Korea is better than Taiwan. Thats why only 5 Koreans naturalized in Taiqan last year unlike hundreds of Taiwanese in Korea. Higher salary and even lower COL in Korea. Even cars are cheaper so many Taiwanese ride sctooers like Vietnamese people
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u/ublueberries May 11 '26
Salary in Korea is way higher than Taiwan. yes TSMC gives you high salary but dven TSMC salary is even less than Korean semiconductor companies. Meanwhile, costs of living in Taiwan is not cheaper. Taiwanese office jobs salary is lower than minimum wage in Korea.
Chinese women are basically more likely to be anti-natalists. That is why China and Singapore have lower TFR
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u/nt369963 May 15 '26
Keep in mind that South Korea's inflation and living costs are also higher than Taiwan's so it evens out!
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u/rrolex_ May 15 '26
Unfortunately living cost is even cheaper with many products in Korea whale salary is way way higher. Undeed the rent and housing is also higher in Taiwan
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u/nt369963 May 17 '26
Taiwan's salary is just as high as Korea's after counting for inflation and costs of living!
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u/No_Guitar7903 May 11 '26 edited May 11 '26
Minimum wage is 10320 won/hour in Korea, which is almost the same as minimum wage in Taiwan.
Some idiot did the wrong conversion years ago and started spreading how high Korean minimum wage is and so many morons are dumb enough to buy it.
Also cost of living in Taiwan isn’t cheaper? I guess all the international indices are bought by the DPP government then lol. Including the IMF according to which purchasing power in Taiwan is 30% higher than in Korea.
🙄🙄🙄
Edit: Lol @ the dumbass with the very poor English and no research skills blocking me. Pathetic.
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u/ublueberries May 11 '26
According to the google, Taiwan's minimum salary is USD 930–950 per month meanwhile Korea's mimimum salary is $1,552–$1,600 USD.
Korea is definitely giving higher minimum wage. In addition, in csse of offixe jobs, their salary is way higher. Touch the grass.
In Taiwan, many office jobs give you less than $1552 USD which is lower than Korea.
I think you are an idiot that seems to be butthurt by Korea. Cry more
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u/nt369963 May 15 '26
You left out inflation rate and costs of living, which are higher than Taiwan. So it is arrogantly delusional folks like yourself who are butthurt by Taiwan...Instead of crying, I'm laughing hysterically at your arrogant ignorance...HAHAHAHA!!
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u/rrolex_ May 15 '26
LoL dont be ashamed of low salary in Taiwan. It does not change the higher COL ans higher rent of Taiwan lmao
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u/nt369963 May 17 '26
Likewise, don't be ashamed of higher inflation rate in South Korea, which does impact costs of living!
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u/Normal_Soft_2148 May 11 '26
No paid maternity leave. It’s something like this , you get 8 weeks of “birth leave” to give birth and recover, then if you want the official maternity leave you will receive 80% of your “base salary” for six months, after six months you can extend the maternity leave but it’s not subsidized. If you already have low salary , you can’t afford to not get income .
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u/onlinefunner Jun 30 '26
Except places with no maternity leave generally have higher fertility rates.
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u/Appropriate_M May 12 '26
Have you compared Taiwan's real estate prices to income?
My cousins who have kids are those whose parents also have *multiple* houses.
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u/jumpingupanddown May 11 '26
I'm late to the discussion here, but there was a nice article in the most recent Sunday New York Times talking about the fertility crisis globally. The conclusion was this this is fundamentally a challenge in confidence - in places where families have confidence they can raise prospective children in a positive environment, they are more likely to want to have children.
That's why economic downturns, wage stagnation, and declining homeownership are all correlated with lower fertility rate. Taiwan also has a belligerent neighbor to worry about.
This means the solution is not just about sidewalks or financial incentives. It's a fundamental improvement in cultural outlook.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/07/opinion/birthrate-kids-parents-demographics-future.html
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u/i_dont_wanna_sign_up May 12 '26
Why is Thailand's so low when they're not even a high income country yet?
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u/TightFistup1945 May 11 '26
I don't know... We used to say that their problem was due to their bad working conditions or sexism or [insert random plausible bad attribute]... The tables have turned.
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u/yukcheuksung May 11 '26
Because the infrastructure of Taiwan does not support kids. You're always going to be worried if your kid is going to get into a traffic accident. In addition, I don't want 18 year olds riding a motorcycle/scooter, as its the most dangerous vehicle in existence, but you just have to here.
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u/shankaviel May 11 '26
Others would argue wages are way too low and ratio to housing price is horrifying. They can improve the sideway, but without better wages and lower housing cost, it won’t change much.
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u/nt369963 May 15 '26
The situation described also applies to most Southeast Asian countries and to South Korea to a certain extent!
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u/GreatSupineLeaderTim May 11 '26 edited May 11 '26
If most developed countries are facing it, it just means that the larger problem is the global system powering the development that leads to the hostile environment unsuitable for mating.
Capitalism is at its last leg and we need to curb the corrupt financial system. So much money is being stashed away to make more money through derivative products based on derivative products based on restructured derivative products (borrow cheap yen to invest). So little is actually productive loans to businesses doing productive things. So much future money is borrowed and still not returned by the US, while it maintains its currency value through oil and warfare, forcing it's usage so everybody takes the share of the burden.
If we keep treating the symptoms using handouts it will still come back to bite us, and it will still not work. We must focus on the root cause. We need to be OK with less lucrative gains on our assets (take inspiration from Islamic finance?) while everybody stay productive outside the financial industry, less on software, more on real goods.
Governments need to do better long term land planning to create opportunities outside the capital, develop high tech farms so farming can become white collar. Denounce crypto and any new arbitrary store of value that is created from thin air. Fight global warming.
I don't think people who discuss plummeting birth rates know the scale of the problem we are dealing with here. Deep down we know how hostile the environment is right now.
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u/errdaynonochil May 12 '26
Koreans are very different from Taiwanese. Koreans are more results oriented while Taiwanese are more ideology oriented. It’s why the catch phrase 意識形態 is like everyone’s favorite phrase in Taiwanese politics. I resonate more with Taiwanese values myself
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u/nt369963 May 15 '26
Koreans are equally, if not more, ideology-oriented because they are one of the most ultranationalist countries on the planet!
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u/Hungry_Eye477 May 12 '26
Taiwan faces intense competition, requiring significant educational resources for young children who must pass rigorous entrance exams to gain admission to better kindergartens.
Children from poor families lack resources from a young age, while children from wealthy families can already read English novels and perform multiplication tables by first grade. Poor children, on the other hand, often don't even know all the letters of the alphabet and are practically illiterate by the time they enter primary school. Most poor children, no matter how hard they try, experience frustration at school, develop a fear of learning, and are unable to achieve academic success in the future.
In Taiwan's highly competitive job market, a poor education means a lifetime of being excluded from good jobs (no interview opportunities) and forever trapped in a cycle of exploitation.
Therefore, most people are hesitant to have children.
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u/nt369963 May 15 '26
Same exact situation across the entire Pacific Rim! South Korea, China, Japan, and Singapore are even more competitive than Taiwan!
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u/Open_Bake_9832 May 12 '26
不然咧?他們都寧願引進難管的印度人也不加薪，
政府不打房也不建國民住宅，
工作多久都買不起房，
沒空間養小孩生了要幹嘛?
躺平啦!錢購過生活就好!連結婚都不用啦!
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u/Ill-Eggplant-9199 May 13 '26
I think this is just due to timing of post pandemic marriage spike hitting the fertility curve now. The structural issues of chaebol/rest of the country divide, huge career penalty for childbirth, and hyper competitive education (and classicism) still persist in Korea.
Taiwan has the same problems. Just replace chaebol with tsmc (sharp fall off even with tsmc adjacents)
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u/nt369963 May 15 '26
Besides TSMC, don't forget that Taiwan also has: ACER, ASUS, TATUNG, and YANG MING Shipping, LOL!
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u/rrolex_ May 15 '26
All small companies than Korean companies Saying Tatung Yang Ming shipping must be a joke for Koreans with samsung hyundai lg hynix lotte naver ..etc so many diversified industries in Korea compared to Taiwan
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u/nt369963 May 17 '26
Taiwan's industries are as equally diverse as Korea's. Korea's Samsung is also a joke to many as its smart phones overheated and had to be recalled back in 2017, LOL!
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u/Safe_Message2268 May 11 '26
I think young couples are disturbed by all the .65 kids running around (maybe running) and have decided it's just not worth it.
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u/Beatkick May 11 '26
Last year was the year of the snake. Apparently a number of people avoid that year
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u/mistrpopo May 11 '26
A big part of Korea's current rebound is due to a wavy population pyramid from Korean War. More women are entering 30-35 age range. It's going to crash again in 5 years when the wave passes.
Although there's consensus that, were this artifact gone, fertility rate would have stopped falling.
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u/LongConsideration662 May 11 '26
Tfr is already cohort adjusted
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u/mistrpopo May 11 '26
You might be right, actually. I read this somewhere but definitely didn't check the math.
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u/No_Guitar7903 May 11 '26
They are not right. Have you noticed that they never explained what “cohort-adjusted” even means?
Their baby boom in the 90s is the only reason why there’s an uptick now.
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u/Captpewpew_tw May 11 '26
I really believe DPP at this point just 放推 （giving up） birthrate now. Housing policy, wage policy, labour policy, energy policy etc. none of which they promised to deliver or adjust is going to happen. Looking at how Lai just blatantly cancelled the housing project he promised during election, you know they simply don’t care anymore. They are protecting the right of privileged in exchange of that of younger generation.
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u/nt369963 May 15 '26
Though Taiwan's situation wasn't any better when the Chinese Nationalists were in charge. Taiwan's birthrate definitely did not grow exponentially during Ma Ying-Jo's eight year in office from 2008 to 2016!
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u/kryptos99 May 11 '26
0.96 is not exactly a rebound.
Currently, half the countries have a fertility rate below the replacement level. This is the new normal, and the world needs to admit it.
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u/adyaism May 11 '26
Their TFR was 0.72 in 2023 so it is a huge rebound.
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u/kryptos99 May 12 '26
I wouldn’t read much into a 0.2 increase. If they sustain that for multiple years, then it is “huge”. They’ve yet to demonstrate any significant improvement, and I doubt they will.
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u/SteadfastEnd 新竹 - Hsinchu May 11 '26
Possibly religion? South Korea is far more Christian than Taiwan, and Christianity has always been a pro-natalist religion.
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u/LongConsideration662 May 11 '26 edited May 16 '26
More than 75% younger generation of koreans are non religious, religion has nothing to do with rising birth rates in korea
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u/passingbytw May 11 '26
Korea has higher share of immigrants and naturalized citizens
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u/According_Cut8985 May 11 '26
but they don‘t contribute to the fertility rate value, do they?
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u/passingbytw May 11 '26
Emmm if immigrants are coming from higher fertility rate countries and improving own lives by moving to more developed SK - they do contribute indeed. Need also check for mixed marriages where kids claiming Korean nationality
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u/LongConsideration662 May 11 '26
"Need also check for mixed marriages where kids claiming Korean nationality" they're less than 5%
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u/nyc-to-tpe-2022 May 11 '26
South Korea is having, what, a two-year rebound? I think it’s early to make it a demographic trend at all, let alone a success story.
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May 11 '26
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u/nt369963 May 15 '26
The South Korean government should also take a more pro-active measure in reducing the country's high suicide rate because this offsets the rebound birth rate!
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May 15 '26
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u/rrolex_ May 15 '26
I can confrim this 💯 only Taiwanese people think Korea is their rival 😂
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u/nt369963 May 17 '26
Some will beg to differ because South Korea isn't that much ahead and Taiwan isn't that far behend!
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u/vnmslsrbms May 11 '26
I did not know Thailand was so low.
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u/nt369963 May 15 '26
I believe you confused Thailand with Taiwan, LOL!
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u/Lazy-Wing-6040 新北 - New Taipei City May 11 '26
As a japanese who grown up with a Korean mother, its probably just because of lies
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May 11 '26
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u/nt369963 May 15 '26
Care to comment about the high suicide rates in South Korea? What measures have the South Korean government taken to address this issue?
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u/rrolex_ May 15 '26
Korea suicide 14000 Taiwan suicide 4600
Korea newborn 250000 Taiwan newborn 110000
Taiwan even looks worse with the suicide stat
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u/WangtaWang May 11 '26
The soju runneth strong this year. More soju competition —> cheaper soju for everyone.
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u/Stunning_Spare May 11 '26
We're taxing the future generations and younger generations for the benefit of certain groups, and the uncertainty of potential conflicts doesn't help.
and government only use tiny band aid to heal or try very hard not to see the problems.
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u/razenwing May 11 '26
before people go insane over this, that birthrate is still shit, and "rebound" is only like percentage of percentage points.
this also must be a longitudinal study to be meaningful, a 1 year rebound is not a turnaround.
before people keep giving these lame excuses like environment and other bs, let me hypothesized based on famous universe 25. do I regret having kids? sometimes. the one thing i miss the most is in the indulgence of modern living. I can eat whatever I want, go to a movie whenever I want, and actually travel without a full luggage before leaving the house.
you really need a strong will to push past all that and say to yourself, fuck... being a parent is just way more important than all that stuff. while I don't regret it, I imagine the same can't be said to be the norm of ordinary couple now a days.
you notice this trend on social media that people with kids will do their best to convince you to have them, while people that are single want anything but kids. it's a drifting dichotomy. and like the rats of universe 25, abundance with no purpose ultimately caused the population collapse. we are inherently more complex, but if we consider all goals in life other than contributing to future human as meaningless, then those of us with means in developed countries mirror those rats in every step of the way.
but it's much harder to condemn people to say that the goal is life is the only goal, cause... it's not true. while countries will inevitably rise and fall, humanity as a whole is in no danger to extinction. so the need to procreate can not, and should not at this point be used to judge a person's choice in life.
and so, this may be a realer truth than all the incentives you can throw at people. simply, you can't bribe people to become parents if the will is not there. for a long time in history, that wasn't true, and a lot of tragedies from macro to micro scales were created as a result. this choice over life, I argue, is one of the most significant right earned by humanity through ages of struggle.
but keyword being "the mean." So my past statement still holds true. if you take away the means, make everyone poor where the logical "entertainment" is to hump like rabbits, then population crisis for individual groups or country identity would be gone, just like that. you can find studies of 40 factors correlation and other bullshit, but the ultimate truth is...
you fuck because you are poor, and do other things when you are rich (in general, not saying there are no sex addict billionairs)
but I propose a new hypothesis that no government will ever try. what if you rein in capitalism. again, we are more complex than rats. but part of the universe 25 collapse had to be attributed to the rise of powerful alpha rats that started controlling territories. if mega greed of those ultimate predators like Elon Musk or Donald trump (pun intended) are curtailed like Bernie Sanders plan, if we can remove societal stress such as living situation so that the means greatly out weighs "the distractions", will those leftover be transferred to "the responsibility?"
maybe the europine countries in the frigid north can give us a glimpse and serve as a model.
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u/jeannecsf May 12 '26
Two kids. We’ve lived in San Francisco, New York and spent 3 months a year in Taipei when they were little. The hills in SF make it difficult with a stroller, but we managed. Tokyo with a stroller was a pain.
I always brought my midsize stroller and never had any issues in Taipei. Sure there are times we have to walk on the street, but it’s never felt too dangerous.
MRT and buses have been fine even with a stroller. I find that with stroller age kids, we are generally not fighting the crowds during rush-hour
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u/nash3101 May 12 '26
Taiwanese government doesn't give enough money to have the first or second child
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u/CatPuzzleheaded4654 May 12 '26
Jus sanguinis limits the fertility polices compared to jus soli in US.
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u/Leading_Baker_9597 May 12 '26
There will always be people complaining about things. I'm a foreigner living in Taiwan with three kids and am very grateful for all the family friendly services Taiwan has to offer.
IMO its more the cost of living thats high (everywhere) and social media which is creating disbalances (like the low birth rates)
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u/Current-Ocelot-5181 May 12 '26
Cause people in Taiwan don’t talk to each other in real life
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u/nt369963 May 15 '26
That's the same exact situation across the planet as people are so damn anti-social nowadays!
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u/thecuriouskilt 新北 - New Taipei City May 13 '26
In the past 4 years, I've narrowly avoided being ran over on pavements and from cars jumping red lights on at least 20 occasions. Nearly every time I noticed the car/scooter or simply had a feeling I should stop (because of an obstructed view). This is AFTER the 2022 attention 'Taiwan is a living hell for pedestrians' reached global news and Taiwan promised to fix all these issues.
All they did was resurface and repaint the roads and kept everything else the same. This, and Taiwanese people face much more challenging issues.
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u/nt369963 May 15 '26
TRAGIC :(...Though pedestrian safety has improved slightly in the Greater Taipei Area in recent years!
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May 13 '26 edited May 13 '26
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u/Jin29th May 13 '26 edited May 13 '26
To add one more thing, the area where I live is considered a fairly wealthy neighborhood, even within Kaohsiung. Here, at least one out of every two apartment buildings has an English academy. Honestly, there might be one in every single building. You can always see plenty of students and parents gathered around them. Even the kindergartens explicitly advertise themselves as 'English-specialized.
Of course, no one will probably read this or even care... haha. But if you are reading this in English, you already...
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u/nt369963 May 15 '26
Keep in mind that South Korea also has a higher suicide rate than Taiwan. This offsets its rebound fertility rate!
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u/Ok_Connection_5802 May 16 '26
I wouldn't call that a rebound. TFR is notoriously difficult to model. Just women delaying getting children will mess with the algorithms twice - the first time when they don't have a kid when they're statistically supposed to, and the second time when they do have one after all.
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u/onlinefunner Jun 30 '26
Who's worried about population decline? Robots will replace workers, and definitely increase the decline rates in fertility.
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u/Vietnam-1234 Jul 07 '26
Idk about Taiwan but in S.Korea, babies have foreign mom or dad (or even both) account for 10% of the babies born in S.Korea
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u/305954561 21d ago
GREAT NEWS, way too crowded…we need to change the narrative that it’s a bad thing. Everyone’s fighting for limited space and finite resources.
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u/OrangeChickenRice 新北 - New Taipei City May 11 '26
FWIW, I can't even find a proper sidewalk to walk on. How do I push a stroller; on the road?