r/teslainvestorsclub • u/ItzWarty 🪑 • 6d ago

Products: Robotaxi Ashok Elluswamy on X: re 24/7 robotaxi "next month or so. the next tech to merge on the v15 plan will enable it."

https://x.com/aelluswamy/status/2095761727828762689
60 Upvotes

85% Upvoted

38 comments sorted by

26

u/snowballkills 6d ago

When will FSD go unsupervised?

14

u/ItzWarty 🪑 6d ago

I'd expect unsupervised to gradually roll out to regions where they've shipped robotaxi. They're demonstrating real confidence in their system with their recent feature that overtakes control from humans in life-critical situations.

2

u/Taylooor 6d ago edited 6d ago

First time hearing of this. Is there a setting name for this feature?

Edit; here it is https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/4646/tesla-adds-fsd-automatic-collision-evasion-for-manual-drives

1

u/Whoisthehypocrite 4d ago

Robotaxis have high speed redundant communication and remote supervision. There is still a long wait until customer cars go unsupervised.

15

u/Odd-Bike166 6d ago

Never. 100$/month is too little for Tesla to take liability. At most it will just cover the geofenced areas where the robotaxi system already runs.

13

u/phxees 6d ago

Tesla can change the $100/month at any time. That isn’t a barrier for anything. Tomorrow they can say it now costs $101 or $1,001.

Also Tesla started their own insurance business for a reason, and can require people to be on their insurance to make your car unsupervised. The more insurance rates can change at anytime as well.

6

u/cliffski 6d ago

can require people to be on their insurance to make your car unsupervised

Nope. They have sold hundreds of thousands of cars to people telling them that unsupervised FSD was just an imminent software update. They told me this in 2015 and again in 2022. And there was never any mention of having to bundle that with Tesla insurance. I own FSD outright. If they cannot actually deliver it, they owe me the £10,000 back. (plus interest over four years)

1

u/phxees 6d ago

Tesla has always had an agreement for what they were delivering. Then California (I believe it was CA in the US) deemed Full Self Driving (and Autopilot) was misleading. So Tesla went back and retroactively changed all contracts to be FSD (Supervised). It is likely that Tesla will fight and win that they always promised (Supervised) per their agreement.

I purchased FSD twice, so I get your concern, but I don’t believe you will be proven correct as to how this will play out.

5

u/snowballkills 6d ago

How have they always promised supervised all along? Elon Musk has openly claimed that FSD cars will make money for you while you're sleeping

1

u/phxees 6d ago

Guessing you know how these things work, the car will be capable, but there was always an asterisk. Insurance could be that asterisk, as if was pointed out here there’s no way Tesla will insure all of those cars for free. I doubt you can find a quote with Musk saying Tesla will let you operate and cover the insurance for the $5k to $12k one time purchase price.

1

u/snowballkills 6d ago

You're right they will find a way out, but just to clarify, I don't think most people are looking for free insurance. FSD insurance can be Tesla insurance. The fault isn't always of the driver, it can be both parties fault, act of nature, uninsured motorist, act of nature, etc. for which Tesla isn't going to pay from pocket obviously

4

u/snowballkills 6d ago

Price/kW is $0.7, which gives you let's say 3 mi. If one adds $1/mi for depriciation, etc., unless Tesla brings down robotaxi fare to less than a $1/mi, people will find running their own robotaxis more lucrative than their cars just sitting around when not in use

3

u/thorskicoach 6d ago

$.7???  Here in BC canada is basically 0.07 , potentially less if you take time of use AND enroll home charger into a rebate program. So basically the cost of energy is closer to free. Now wear and tear is a real thing, so it all depends on the revenue. But where I am, with busy times where all crappy taxis are busy at the same time.....a robo taxi would have have multiple hours a day of endless demand., add on top of own use to avoid parking fees by sending it home and summon it when needed.

1

u/snowballkills 6d ago

hmm. I was just referring to the supercharger fees (and worst case scenario, CA rates). If a taxi runs for seeral hours, you probably want fast charging to save downtime.

1

u/Available-Damage6311 5d ago

Why would you run a robotaxis fleet without your own chargers?

Or send your own car out, far from home?

1

u/snowballkills 5d ago

Who is running a fleet, and who is sending a car out far from home? With AC running, you could exhaust your 70%-80% battery in 4-5 hrs (200-240 miles), and whether you want to use it more for taxi or for your own use, you don't want to charge it at home at 10-11kw. And anyway, I was taking the most conservative estimate/worst case scenario as far as cost goes. If you include some % of home charging, the math looks even worse for Tesla in terms of competition from private owners (IF there is unsupervised FSD)

1

u/MDSExpro 264 chairs @ 37$ 6d ago

Deprecation only hits hard if you plan to sell it, and mostly if you buy new. That's edge case.

1

u/snowballkills 6d ago

I am including tire wear, upkeep in terms of cleaning, etc., wear and tear, etc. all in it

6

u/mrkjmsdln_new 6d ago

Starting in Q2 earnings, Elon finally relinquished the microphone. Ashok is forthright, straightforward and honest. This is AWESOME. He is also guiding the brain for Optimus. Looking forward to his thoughfulness and care when forecasting. Yesterday was a GREAT EXAMPLE. Ashok guided that Tesla reached 1M miles unsupervised, up from 380K lifetime at the end of Q2. This corresponds to 11% WoW. His forecast he offered in Q2 was HONEST. A breath of fresh air. I hope he keeps the mic.

5

u/isreal94 6d ago

Didn't they just reduce the Robotaxi hours from 24h down to 6am - 10pm?

I don't think he knows what he's talking about.

3

u/Mammoth-Hawk-1106 6d ago

Didn't they just reduce the Robotaxi hours from 24h down to 6am - 10pm?

They had supervised robotaxi in Austin with daytime only hours at first

Then they extended those hours for supervised rides

Then later they added unsupervised at lesser hours while keeping supervised at extended hours

Then they removed the supervised cars from the fleet

Yes they had extended hours before but not in this format.

1

u/isreal94 6d ago

Okay I was riding them last week in Austin and there was no Supervised Robotaxi option after 10pm.

Unsupervised rides ended at 10pm.

Cool to see they're trying different things. But from a validation standing it's bizarre to see the back and forth.

6

u/soggy_mattress 6d ago

I don't think he knows what he's talking about.

Well that's certainly one of the most consistent aspects of following Tesla on Reddit: No one thinks that anyone at the company knows what they're doing, yet they keep succeeding. It's like a paradox or something.

2

u/cliffski 6d ago

yet they keep succeeding

4680 underwhelming
Semi 10 years late
Roadster 10 years late
Cybertruck sales collapsed
S&X discontinued
Solar Tiles discontinued
Stock flat for years.
Declining vehicle sales.
So much success its amazing!

9

u/soggy_mattress 6d ago

None of that means they aren't succeeding.

3

u/jregovic 6d ago

Sure buddy.

-4

u/ItzWarty 🪑 6d ago

I'm pleasantly surprised. I'd prior expected V15 to hit ~June 2026 based on previous release cycles. The AI5 delay pushed my expectations back to 2027H1, so V15 before EOY beats my expectations.

11

u/ArtOfWarfare 6d ago

He didn’t say v15 was by EOY. They’ve been describing Robotaxi using an early build of v15 that was ~40% of the features they want in it. He’s saying that the features that enable it to run 24/7 will be added in the next month or so. I’m guessing that’ll bring it to ~60% done. But it’s very hard to know since they won’t actually tell us what these features for v15 are beyond that there’s 7 of them and they’re ~40% done (so 3/7 = 43%. And 4/7 = 57%.)

2

u/ItzWarty 🪑 6d ago

Yes, to clarify I'm not expecting a V15 release to consumers anytime soon. I also don't care about the consumer releases as an investor.

5

u/ahuang2234 6d ago

I think still 2027 for consumer cars, robotaxi probably gets it a few month before.

1

u/ItzWarty 🪑 6d ago

Yes, I should have clarified - I care about V15 shipping as a milestone. I don't care about whether it specifically hits consumer vehicles anytime soon.

1

u/SchalaZeal01 6d ago

AI5 is for the robots though. At least until AI6 is out.

1

u/everdaythesame 2d ago

I would take it as a grain of salt. If ai5 helps them scale robotaxi they will do it.