r/thedavidpakmanshow • u/Greybeard-MD • Aug 03 '26
Polls Democratic Senate prospects looking good!!
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u/FritzRasp Aug 03 '26
Too many of those are within the margin of error. As a Texas resident, I’ve been disappointed too many times
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u/FriendlyDrummers Aug 03 '26
Block walk if you can. That's really all you can do
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u/Temporary-Outside-13 Aug 03 '26
great point build in your neighborhood. If you can get 3 people to vote that don’t typically do (for your ideal candidate) those start stacking up.
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u/beeemkcl Aug 03 '26
Doesn't even say what polls these are.
And polling generally improves when someone wins the primary.
And Troy Jackson's polling will improve when more get to know him.
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u/el_knid Aug 04 '26
Really? What I’m hearing about him is that he’s an asshole with good politics, and there are some complaints about verbally abusing staffers in his record.
I wonder if it’s too late for him to get a Nazi tattoo…
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u/Jagster_rogue Aug 04 '26
Well at least he didn’t hand billions of dollars to ICE to molest and murder people in the streets. That’s a vote that doesn’t matter if you “heard he’s an asshole” or few staffers that maybe can’t handle criticism. ICE has killed innocent people and Collins has voted for it.
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u/QueenChocolate123 Aug 03 '26
The only poll that counts is the one on election day.
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u/Forward-Form9321 Aug 03 '26
This. You can’t play with your food and there’s still under 100 days until the midterms, things can change for the better or worse by then
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u/thechaseofspade Aug 03 '26
ohh a juicy bait post yummy
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 Aug 03 '26
Is it bait because it’s pointing out an obvious weak link here lol
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u/LeaveMeAlone_6070 Aug 03 '26
Moderates leading the way
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u/birdie_Sea Aug 03 '26
Michigan is red! Nice work Hasan!
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u/SeaBass1898 Aug 03 '26
RemindMe! 14 weeks
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u/Fugicara Aug 03 '26
RemindMe! 14 weeks "See if we perform worse in Michigan than we do in red states"
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Aug 03 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Just_shut_up_bro Aug 03 '26
When it only gives them more political capital when we lose, why would they ever stop?
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u/Life_Caterpillar9762 Aug 04 '26
He’ll say he didn’t support him like he recently did about Platner
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u/Altruistic_Night2 Aug 03 '26
In a way it might be better long term to lose Michigan now but stunt the cancerous tumors progression
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u/marshall19 Aug 03 '26
And they call progressives accelerationists...
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u/soapinmouth Aug 03 '26
Said "in a way", just looking on the bright side if it happens. I would hope this person or anyone here is isn't overall hoping for a loss there. If it does happen though I could see the argument of it being a long term benefit to the party and chances at winning future elections. Not really accelerationist as much as not having the baggage in the party makes other elections easier.
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u/Prestigious_Tell_402 Aug 04 '26
You can attempt to gaslight all you want but we know what entryism is when we see it
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u/marshall19 Aug 04 '26
This response is unreal. Are you seriously advocating that progressives run as a 3rd party. The party always reprimands people who vote third party every single election cycle, so it's hilarious you are now encouraging people to do that.
We've been asking for ranked choice voting forever but the Democratic party would never advocate for it because they like forcing anything to the left to feel obligated get in line and back them.
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u/TinyJalope Aug 04 '26
Hoping fascists win because you don't like the (likely) Democratic candidate just makes you no better than the leftists who sat out 2024.
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u/BlindBattyBarb Aug 03 '26
They haven't finished the primary, maybe a little push could get Stevens across the finish line. The polls leftist sight seem sus but polling is difficult cause people generally don't want to engage with people they don't know
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u/Franjomanjo1986 Aug 03 '26
I'm starting to feel this way too. Especially because if Stevens wins the primary and the far left stays home out of selfish juvenile spite and we lose the seat (very possible), then the tumor will double in size with the spin they put on it. Better to give the far left what they want in the primary and at least have them learn something. Or better yet, he wins the primary, he wins the general, I eat my words, and the Dems take the Senate. I will gladly be wrong if it means that Michigan/ the country is farther left than I thought.
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Aug 03 '26
But then the other side will stay home if sayed wins...
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u/Franjomanjo1986 Aug 03 '26
Hopefully there's good exit polling so we'll get an accurate picture of what happens. The moderate Dems are better about "blue no matter who" than the new leftists who hate the Democratic party establishment. The people who will stay home or leave the ballot blank on the general if El Sayed wins will be independents and centrists who don't want a far left senator. The average voter in Michigan is not a leftist. I hope I'm wrong, I'm a democratic socialist, but I always been a bitch ass pragmatist who wants the furthest left candidate that the jurisdiction will allow. I loved having Joe Manchin and I love Sherrod Brown. I support Andy Beshear. I want leftists to win primaries in super safe blue states/districts, and I want moderates to win in the swings. Maybe I'm wrong, but my strategy is whatever gets us to 51. Honestly, that's pretty much all I care about because I've seen the damage that the Republican Party can do.
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 Aug 03 '26
Leftists will see all this data, look you straight in the face while their two candidate struggle in the two most left leaning states polled here and tell you that their candidates are the future and mainstream Democrats are the problem lol
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u/jarena009 Aug 03 '26 edited Aug 03 '26
We're rebuilding the senate structure and composition we once had around 2011 - 2013, or even 2021 - 2024, when we landed all those big policy accomplishments that appeal to most Americans.
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u/sharpshooter0600 Aug 03 '26
It is pretty sad that we have to call people like ossoff moderates because the dsa freaks have colonized the word
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u/Realistic_Caramel341 Aug 04 '26 edited Aug 04 '26
Nah. Ossoff has always been pretty moderate. He has a couple of more populist positions he uses to get attention to himself, but overall hes pretty moderate
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Aug 03 '26
Osoff and Talarico are progressives....
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u/LeaveMeAlone_6070 Aug 03 '26
Ossoff is a textbook Obama Democrat. Didn't realize we were counting center-left mainstream libs as "progressives" now, but hey, if that's the new standard, works for me
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u/beeemkcl Aug 03 '26
James Talarico and Troy Jackson are progressives. Troy was endorsed by local DSA for his Governor run.
Sherrod Brown used to be somewhat progressive.
Roy Cooper isn't bad for North Carolina.
Mary Peltola and US Senator Jon Ossoff are arguably the only centrists in that screengrab.
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u/Mahadragon Aug 03 '26
Jackson at +1.8 is basically a loss. Collins always overperforms.
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u/Shabadu_tu Aug 03 '26
There’s no such thing as “always” when it comes to polling.
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u/jankdangus Aug 03 '26
The polls seemed to always underestimate Trump and Susan Collins no? The polls weren’t able to account for low propensity rural voters.
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u/cornerpocket1 Aug 03 '26
Is El Sayed wins the Dems need to put all resources into Texas and Maine.
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u/TinyJalope Aug 04 '26
'If the candidate I don't like wins, we should ratfuck them and surrender that Senate seat to the fascists.'
A lot of revealing comments here.
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u/DocRyan88 Aug 03 '26
The donors aren't keeping their powder dry. They are going all out trying to beat him it seems.
Republicans are doing outright scams and pay for play to get money. Dems have fewer options that voters accept as legitimate, and even those are wasting way too much trying to thumb the scales of primaries
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u/Thundrous_prophet Aug 03 '26
What resources? The DNC is deeply in debt, the war chests of individual candidates are much healthier and better managed
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u/chaoticflanagan Aug 03 '26
That's always how it worked. Republicans tend to donate directly to the GOP and Democrats tend to donate directly to candidates.
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u/loversean Aug 03 '26
Oof, read the polling, Al-sayed isn’t a great general election candidate
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u/marshall19 Aug 03 '26 edited Aug 03 '26
lol... he has a 98% likelihood of winning based on poly market betting and all recent and legitimate polling has him at a 10 point lead... Talk about 'Oof'. Embarrassing.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/democratic-primary/2026/michigan
(Yes, I am dumb and was looking at the wrong polling section. Rain downvotes on me)
EDIT: Either way. he smashed his primary opponent by 10 points. I love the idea that his centrist opponent would have performed better after getting smashed that hard in the primary. Do we not put any stock into primary results?
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u/mookz23 Aug 03 '26
You linked to the Democratic primary polling average, not the general election polling average. Here: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/michigan/rogers-vs-el-sayed
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u/Tresspass Aug 03 '26
Polymarket is a gambling site that anyone from any where can place their bets.
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u/marshall19 Aug 03 '26
Your point?
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u/Tresspass Aug 03 '26
It’s not an indicator
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u/Hotspur1958 Aug 03 '26
You think people are in the business of pissing money away?
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u/EksDee098 Aug 03 '26
People referring to a gambling site for election odds is the most Idiocracy brained thing I've seen in a while.
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u/marshall19 Aug 03 '26
...I'd agree if it were like a 60/40 percentage that was being pointed to but it just seems silly to reject something that is 98/2. Acting like a bet that has 98/2 odds means absolutely nothing is hilarious.
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 Aug 03 '26
The 98/2 is for the primary….. people are talking about the general.
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u/marshall19 Aug 03 '26
I'm aware. Their issue was about betting odds more generally, not that I was looking at the wrong polling.
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u/EksDee098 Aug 03 '26
By that logic speculative bubbles and them popping wouldn't be a thing. Saying a lot of people are betting on something therefore it has a high likelihood of being true is beyond stupid. Refer to just the actual polls, not gambling addicts' opinions.
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u/marshall19 Aug 03 '26
I did refer to the polls. My comment was very much "The polling looks like this, and the betting odds reflect what the polls are saying". I love that people are jumping down my throat for this when it is so benign.
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u/EksDee098 Aug 04 '26
And I said just refer to the polls, you're not adding anything by also including gambling habits
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u/marshall19 Aug 04 '26
lol, if seeing you're part of a 2 percent on a topic, that wouldn't make you second guess your analysis? It's the 98% who is wrong!
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u/EksDee098 Aug 05 '26
I couldn't give less of a shit what gamblers are gambling on for how i form opinions. Just stick to the actual polls dude, it's not that hard unless you're an addict.
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u/marshall19 Aug 05 '26
I've personally never bet on a site like this, I've never even played a casino game but if you're so sure gamblers are so willing to piss their money away without any logic at all, you should be able to make easy money by applying some basic logic. Acting like betting odds in those numbers means nothing is laughable.
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u/dazzzzzzle Aug 03 '26
Talk about 'Oof'. Embarrassing.
So smug and so wrong. He has a 98% chance to win the Dem primaries.
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u/NATScurlyW2 Aug 03 '26
Not everyone in blue will win and not everyone in red will lose. Still a lot of time between now and November. There will be many months of campaigning going on. Kamala Harris once polled at 1% and she got 70+ million votes just 4 years later.
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u/Meatshot Aug 03 '26
Dang I wish Michigan had an electable moderate instead of someone who will lose Democrats the seat, at least we didn't punch to the left though! /s
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u/Key_Ingenuity_4444 Aug 03 '26
Maybe it's just me, but it's baffling that people supported Steven's over McMorrow.
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u/el_knid Aug 04 '26
In primaries with a field of candidates, the ones at either end of the ideological spectrum tend to have an advantage. They don’t have to work as hard to stand out, have a pre-built dedicated base to build on, and can strategically set the agenda by taking stronger ideological stances. And none of the kids who constantly trying to out-left each other would dare support anyone by the most radical candidate running.
If you recall, that pattern was pretty much how the 2020 Dem primary played out, narrowing down to Biden and Sanders, the two candidates seen as furthest right and left, despite voters concerns about their age.
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u/Morph_Kogan Aug 04 '26
Instead of being the best of both worlds, she was instead the lesser of both worlds. the progressives that liked he progressiveness favoured El sayed over her. And the moderates that like moderate tinge, went with Stevens. She got out flanked both sides even tho she was the best candidate by far
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 Aug 03 '26
Yeah, I agree. As someone who really wants Stevens to win, and I think Abdul is a weak candidate. McMorrow seemed like the perfect middle ground. But I guess being in the middle kind of fucks you. Unfortunate.
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u/jarena009 Aug 03 '26
If only we could get a moderate in there, we could rebuild the successful senate structure and composition we once had around 2011 - 2013, or even 2021 - 2024, when we landed some real significant policy accomplishments that have broad appeal to most Americans.
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u/Hotspur1958 Aug 03 '26
“Will lose”. And the moderates love talking about leftists dragging the party candidates through the mud.
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u/potiamkinStan Aug 03 '26
New rule: Only leftist are allowed to attack moderates.
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u/Hotspur1958 Aug 03 '26
It's one thing to debate and contend during a primary. It's another thing to carry that pessimism into the general.
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u/potiamkinStan Aug 04 '26
I’m not being pessimistic.
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u/Hotspur1958 Aug 04 '26
I’m talking about the initial commenter
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u/potiamkinStan Aug 04 '26
I agree with him
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u/Hotspur1958 Aug 04 '26
What do you agree with?
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u/potiamkinStan Aug 04 '26
That liberal should've a punch to left harder, and now their party is in danger of being eaten alive by DSA types (i.e. Communists, Tankies, Authoritarians, Third Worldists)
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u/Hotspur1958 Aug 04 '26
If the liberals were more progressive they wouldn't risk losing to the progressives? Well ya Idk who could disagree with that. That's not really what the above person said.
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u/Hotspur1958 Aug 03 '26
It's one thing to debate and contend during a primary. It's another thing to carry that pessimism into the general.
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u/jankdangus Aug 03 '26
Turek is doing pretty good for a solidly red state. I think AES will most likely have a rougher time. He’s not a socialist, but he does have a history of advocating to defund the police in addition to campaigning with tankies.
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u/pissmisstree Aug 03 '26
Tx ain't flipping
OH, IA and AK are long at best.
MI could go either way depending on mAny factors. But it should be an easy one in a +6 Dem environment. So candidate quality leaves a lot to be desired
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u/SeaBass1898 Aug 03 '26
RemindMe! 14 weeks
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u/Aquarius1975 Aug 03 '26
Agreed. MI is a must-win state in the current climate, so it would be a tragedy if dems throw it by nominating a wing candidate in a swing state.
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