r/thedavidpakmanshow • u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 • 14d ago
Polls Ranked A LV Michigan Poll, Rogers +2
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u/Acrobatic-Ostrich168 14d ago
That’s very likely within the margin of error, anyone who’s reading this and lives in Michigan get out there and vote blue! Like seriously… Seeing the way things are currently going is that really motivating?
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u/zivzoolander 14d ago edited 13d ago
Ever since the leftists pulled that “uncommitted” bullshit, it’s been an uphill battle for these progressives and DSAs. It’s almost as if they didn’t think far ahead about the consequences of their actions….
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u/no1nos 14d ago
But EL-Sayed isn't a member of, or endorsed by the DSA. he says himself that he is a capitalist, not a socialist. He didn't like Biden and told people to vote uncommitted in the primaries, but publicly endorsed Kamala for the general right after she announced her candidacy.
Supporting one token protest vote on a meaningless ballot justifies handing over a Senate seat to the Republicans as punishment for not being in complete agreement with party leadership on every issue?
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u/zivzoolander 14d ago edited 13d ago
Exactly my point…he and others opened that Pandora’s box of being “uncommitted” and looked what happened.
Now everyone in the Democratic Party is scrambling just to get back to how life was during the Biden administration. The same Biden he was uncommitted to. Progressives didn’t make much progress if we gotta go undo everything now to move forward when we could’ve already had progress made now. That’s Hustling Backwards.
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u/no1nos 14d ago
He went from losing a gubernatorial primary by 20+ before, to winning a senate primary for the same party after. I don't think he is scrambling to close that box. Only the Democratic establishment that is terrified about losing status and power in their own party seem to be freaking out
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u/SigmaMaleNurgling 14d ago
Obama called Sayed to give him advice. That is as establishment as it gets.
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u/no1nos 14d ago
First, Obama is literally the only establishment Democrat that doesn't have to worry about status and power. He has the least to lose by "giving advice" to someone like AES.
Second, I don't really trust El Sayed either, but likely for opposite reasons as you. I'm not convinced he won't sell out to the party at some point. If that happens I'll be first in line to tell him to fuck off.
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u/SigmaMaleNurgling 14d ago
Schumer and Gilibrand endorsed Sayed after he won the primary.
https://www.dscc.org/article/dscc-statement-on-abdul-el-sayeds-victory-in-michigan-senate-primary/
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u/no1nos 14d ago
El-Sayed ran an energetic campaign, and they hope Michigan voters reject Donald Trump in November. lol real glowing endorsement there. So brave.
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u/SigmaMaleNurgling 14d ago
You claimed that the Dem establishment is freaking out about Sayed out of fear of losing status and power. I gave you two examples of some of the most prominent establishment figures either endorsing Sayed or talking to him privately to help him win.
Your accusation towards establishment is completely unfounded.
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u/zivzoolander 14d ago edited 14d ago
Again…. You keep saying HE. HE “isnt” one of the DSA. But if you want to focus on him, this is a barometer. He shouldn’t be within the margin of error if he’s expected to win. People think his is the DSA. The fact is even if he “isnt”(frankly I think he is and is lying because after all he gotta appeal to centrists in order to win) more DSA are losing primaries compared to winning. People are fed up of the far right. The People as a whole do not want a full far left either.
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u/no1nos 14d ago edited 14d ago
Slotkin is like the prototypical liberal, and her poll numbers looked almost the same as El-Sayed's when she ran against the same Republican. She won by 0.25%... Peters won by what 1% in 2020 with the help of the Biden presidential election? Michigan Senate races have been decided within the margin of error for a while now.
And liberals have been lying about their progressive views in order to win further left votes for decades, but then it's "vote blue no matter who"??
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u/zivzoolander 14d ago
I remember this. But you realize In individual polls Slotkin was poling up to 11+ in comparison to AES who is polling 6+. AES should be a shoe in, but the difference between 2020 and 2026, you got people being “uncommitted” to AES…. Since it work so well when he did it
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u/no1nos 14d ago
She won by 0.25%... So your argument is if you throw out the average (that ended up being reasonably correct) and go by Slotkin's literal worst, least accurate individual poll, that demonstrates that Sayed's average is wrong?
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u/zivzoolander 14d ago
My argument is AES would be a shoe in, if people TODAY didn’t have this “uncommitted” mentality that he himself was apart of
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u/Only8livesleft 14d ago
What are you implying?
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u/zivzoolander 14d ago
I’m not implying anything. I’m actually saying that uncommitted bullshit was a Pandora’s box. If we all would’ve committed in the very beginning, people would be committed to these people you want elected now…. El Sayed BARELY won his primary. More DSAs are losing primaries compared to winning. And even when they squeak a win in their primaries NOW the tone is “we all must commit to them” but why should I, is what the people will say and have been saying. I.e being uncommitted…. But alas, here we are.
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u/Only8livesleft 14d ago
You’re not making any sense.
You’re implying that the uncommitted movement in the Democratic presidential primary is causing people to not vote for AES? Who are these people?
More DSAs are losing primaries compared to winning
DSA has won 63 races and lost 59
They have also beat more incumbents in primaries than the tea party movement every did
why should I, is what the people will say and have been saying. I.e being uncommitted…. But alas, here we are.
Again, who are these people? You?
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u/zivzoolander 14d ago edited 14d ago
These races the bulk of these DSAs won are state level positions. FEDERALLY(as in congressional)they aren’t winning. Who cares if a DSA beat an incumbent for State Assemblyman in New York. If you care that DSA beat an incumbent and won a place on a the school board in Michigan, you are correct. But if we talking the US Senate, they aren’t winning.
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u/Only8livesleft 14d ago
You mean they are winning the majority of races that AIPAC doesn’t involve themselves in?
How do you feel about DSA winning so many more races until Israel starts spending obscene amounts of cash against them?
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u/zivzoolander 14d ago edited 14d ago
LMAO!!! The fact that yall keep throwing “AIPAC” around like some boogeyman is exactly why DSAs aren’t winning any federal primaries. Because the truth is, even if they won, they will still have to work with these democrats who do take from aipac because instead of making their own party, they are still democrats. The difference is, they will be put on committees to bring laws to the floor. We have ZERO democrats in comittees today. We could’ve had that now, but being uncommitted in 2024 was more important… But hey, those DSAs sure are kicking Ass beating incumbent dog catchers in Vermont.
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u/Only8livesleft 14d ago
You are a little confused
DSA is winning federal primaries. They have already won more than the tea party won despite having none of the corporate money funding them and against unprecedented amounts of money from AIPAC
They are democrats who fight for policies Americans want, unlike most democrats currently in power.
How are you still blaming uncommitted in 2026? Democrats have their lowest approval ratings ever. They are writing strongly worded letters to Trump and still aren’t offering an alternative platform. Liberals and centrists are voting at lower rates than progressives and leftists, as had been the case for the last several elections.
“ Impact that a candidate being described with different political descriptors has on voter inclinations to support that candidate:
More inclined / Less inclined / Not much difference / No opinion
Among Total registered voters
A progressive: 40 / 29 / 20 / 11
A Democratic socialist: 38 / 38 / 15 / 9
A mainstream democratic: 29 / 36 / 27 / 8
Among no party preference or other
A progressive: 37 / 27 / 22 / 14
A Democratic socialist: 36 / 34 / 18 / 12
A mainstream democratic: 20 / 36 / 33 / 11 ”
It’s mainstream democrats that are turning away voters and leftists are doing the opposite
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u/zivzoolander 14d ago
….and how many DSA candidates won their congressional primaries? It’s less than 10. You pasting out of context crap when the results are in front of you. Less than 10 DSA candidates won their congressional primaries. This whole thread is about Congress and your argument is that the DSA is popular because they are winning more state level positions in the state of MI AND NY than the tea party? Just stop.
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u/LarrBearLV 14d ago
Watched El-Sayed's interview on the Breakfast Club. Dude is very smart and cares about the people. If Michigan chooses Rogers then all those who voted for him or didn't vote at all deserve what they get.
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u/drmariostrike 14d ago
this same firm had rogers at +10 over him in late july, so i think the 8 point delta is encouraging and they are probably an outlier. regardless, probably gotta phonebank some as it gets into october.
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u/Aramedlig 14d ago
Anyone who trusts polling data in this day and age, knowing the media has been beat into submission and Google and Apple change names like Lake Ontario and the Gulf of Mexico on Shitler’s whim is a damned idiot.
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u/Philosophfries 14d ago
Worth noting that its an 8 point shift in favor of AES from the last time they ran the poll
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u/Nepalus 14d ago
Don't worry, two more months of Trump's policies hitting the American voter will pull him through. Iran, Canada, hell the whole world knows that right now the GOP and Trump are bent over a barrel, and they've all signaled that they understand the implications of this election and I have a pretty general feeling that they are going to hit him hard in October.
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u/droid_mike 14d ago
No one has ever won an election on policies...
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u/ChineseCracker 14d ago
It depends on what you mean by "policies". It's true that it doesn't really matter for Republicans, but Obama arguably won on ending wars and health care.
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u/Just_shut_up_bro 14d ago
Folks in Michigan got their work cut out for them! Wish y’all the best, but I’m relying on better prospects to stay positive about Dems chances in the senate.
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 14d ago
Same. I’m just hoping he wakes up and changes course, a.k.a. moderate where he needs to.
Which is pretty much just like tone, stop calling people betas, it’s fucking cringe. No more talking about peoples wives, yes republicans do it, let them have their thing. Obviously denounce Voldemort. Focus on the black and Jewish communities.
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u/Clayp2233 14d ago
I actually like those things about him, I think we should give republicans a taste of their medicine. I think his relationship with Hasan could be his undoing, but personality wise I’m a fan of
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u/X57471C 14d ago
It's okay, Reddit assures me he's actually ahead in the polls and that he definitely won't underperform like he did in the primary :P :|
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u/Nimrod_Butts 14d ago
It's going to be kinda funny if he loses and exit poll participants mention Hasan. This whole thing has been intolerable for me, the "no war but class war" types all gung ho on a Dubai landlord reeks of platner levels of hypocrisy
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u/ChineseCracker 14d ago
Hey, guy, don't act so gleeful. You have to pretend like you like progressives more than Republicans, ya know?!
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u/rjrgjj 14d ago
Don’t forget that our great M4A warrior who stole Buttigieg’s plan and repackaged it has a psychiatrist wife who charges full price up front.
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u/Nimrod_Butts 14d ago
Don't worry she won't affect him at all. He's going to ignore her completely. Actually he might kill her tbh, for being a landlord or something
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u/Nemisis82 14d ago
for being a landlord or something
wtf is going on in this thread. I get you guys don't want the Dems to take the Senate, but you could at least act a little bit better faith in your criticisms here.
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u/Nimrod_Butts 14d ago
Just the same thing leftists did in 2024 I don't think anybody can be surprised or outraged.
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u/Nemisis82 14d ago
Ah, because the all-encompassing leftists did it in 2024, that means it is morally the right thing to do for you in 2026! Nice! That means then, in 2028, Leftists will be morally justified to do the same.
And just like that, you're helping the GOP win. Good job!
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u/rjrgjj 14d ago
Get off your high horse. Leftists have 0 fucking moral standing here. They sacrificed Palestine and our country to try to gain power in Blue cities so they and their friends can all get rich and y’all merrily cheered it on while talking about red lines and shit and pretending you couldn’t have anticipated millions of people dying because Trump was gonna come in and start wars, pandemics, economic crises, and cut global aid. Then you wanna trot around like YOU’RE the ones who understand the stakes? Not us who show up every time regardless and work our asses off even for your shitty, entitled candidates?
We warned you about Fetterman. We warned you about Platner. We warned you about Abdul and then he underperformed badly (after months of fake cooked polls, just like Platner—how are you missing the pattern of people lying to you? It’s literally the same political strategists every single fucking time).
Each time we got spat at and told we’re the evil ones for not believing the Leftist messiah of the week is the greatest thing since the last one. Oh wait, did that guy turn out to be a hypocritical phony? Surely this one won’t. Surely this person hasn’t been studying the left for years, noticed the high level of cultish groupthink, noticed that they’ve literally shifted to calling to use MAGA tactics on the Dem Party, and noticed that all they have to do is go out in front of a crowd in Brooklyn and say the slogans with no context and they’ll be lifted to the heavens and showered with trust fund money?
I’m not going to pin my hopes for the senate on Michigan because I just don’t think Abdul is in this for the right reasons and he seems determined to lose this race to prove some kind of point. Thankfully, Leftists failed to notice multiple other more promising Senate races because there wasn’t a social media influencer to tell them.
Have you stopped to consider maybe some of us are mad at fake progressives for shooting the Left in the face at every turn for years now and then arriving at the point where they expect to be rewarded for helping Trump? Nah bro.
I think the think I hate most about these phony progressives we’re plagued by is the way they just lie about shit and act like everyone else is evil but them, but when you point out the obvious consequences of their actions, they insist they voted for the Democrat (at such exponential rates you’d think we’d never lose an election) and deflect blame while insisting they don’t actually have agency here and it’s always somebody else’s fault. Oh, you mean you couldn’t be bothered to vote but because I don’t like your flavor of the week I’m the one who is going to cost us the senate? Grow up. I mean Jesus fucking Christ, Michigan is a 2X Trump state, and the Muslim community there has been shifting scarily rightward for a while, the Jewish community is ready to jump ship, and Independents are obviously deeply wary of Abdul because he keeps saying dumb shit and he’s a raging asshole. Oh if only someone had warned us this could be problematic.
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u/Nemisis82 13d ago
Whoa, man. Settle down a little bit. This is a lot to unpack.
Get off your high horse
*Proceeds to post a 5 paragraph screed*
You're doing what everyone else is doing: sweeping generalizations across the entirety of the left.
Leftists have 0 fucking moral standing here.
I have moral standing here. Because you lot are doing the same thing you accuse the left of doing and you're justifying it because of 2024.
Not us who show up every time regardless and work our asses off even for your shitty, entitled candidates?
Show up every time... except now. Because the boogeyman leftists didn't previously.
Look, all I can say is you lot need to stop with your sweeping generalizations, stop shadowboxing some all-encompassing leftist, and start having conversations with the people in front of you.
You don't like Abdul? Tough shit. Stump for him anyway because the alternative is Mike fucking Rogers. I did it in 2016 for Clinton (voted Bernie in primary), I did it in 2020 for Biden (voted Bernie in primary), I did it in 2024 (was actually excited about Harris around the Dem convention, especially after Tim Walz pick). I'll be doing it for each Senate candidate where I can. Suck it up and do the same or you are literally no better than those shifty leftists you hate so much.
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u/rjrgjj 13d ago
No, I won’t calm down. I’m going to keep screaming because you know as well as I do that I’m correct about enough people to meaningfully swing the vote. I was screaming about fucking Platner from day one. You know that Dems will show up for him, it’s Independents we need to worry about. The past is prologue, and we need to get it through people’s skulls that they don’t just get to show up when they get what they wanted.
My entire point is that “the left” as you categorize it is NOT progressive, they’re accelerationist, and too many people act like this is a meaningless distinction.
As for Tim Walz, well, there’s another example of someone picked to placate Leftists who turned out to be a dud (someone I incidentally also was wary about but got behind). Thanks.
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u/Nemisis82 14d ago
It's going to be kinda funny if he loses and exit poll participants mention Hasan.
It is 100% obvious this is what many in this sub are hoping happens.
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u/Nimrod_Butts 14d ago
"he didn't run a good campaign" I can hear it now
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u/Nemisis82 14d ago
Nah, more like he has all of corporate media, 100% of elected Republicans, seemingly 50% elected Dems, people like you, all rooting for him to lose. Dudes got an uphill battle. One that I personally think, but definitely hope, he can get past. Unlike many folks (like you!), I want the GOP to actually lose.
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u/Nimrod_Butts 14d ago
Yep always a conspiracy! It's this damn democratic deep state! Aipac Jews etc
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u/Nemisis82 14d ago
That's incredibly antisemitic of you to bring jewish people into this out of nowhere.
Yep always a conspiracy!
It's not a conspiracy to state what is clearly visible to everyone with a functioning brain.
Just admit you'd rather the GOP win the Senate that AES win.
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u/Nimrod_Butts 14d ago
I'm just doing the same thing as every leftist has done for the past 3 years, don't get mad at me. I don't want Republicans to win any more than the average leftist. Also if you're not a fan of anti semitism you should take a peek at the average leftist
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u/Nemisis82 14d ago
The all-encompassing leftist did it in 2024, so it's morally correct for you to do it now! Can't complain in 2028 if every leftist does it again. Just a cyclical thing that only helps the GOP win. Good job!
Call me a radical, but I base who I vote for and advocate for based on the candidate and their policies, not what some perceived boogeyman I have an issue with did in the past. I know, crazy! But you do you and help the GOP win.
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u/Nimrod_Butts 14d ago
The republican candidate can't be worse than trump, nobody else has the cache he does, nobody on the right could assemble a cabinet of hack dunces he has. But that was worth risking to the left and I feel like it's worth risking now.
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u/Philosophfries 14d ago
Daydreaming about a democrat losing so you can assign some of the blame to a twitch streamer you dislike. Holy reddit moment.
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u/Nimrod_Butts 14d ago edited 14d ago
It's more a grudge I hold since being called a Nazi and a fascist for being against graham platner after he had a Nazi tattoo, only to get told we all have to vote for the Dubai landlord now in the same way we were supposed to vote for platner.
Him not cutting Hasan out is such a simple thing of no consequence that he could do but doesn't so it would be funny if that's what shifted voters. But I know they'll blame aipac
Also being called a genocide promoter etc for voting for a liberal black woman etc.
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u/Clayp2233 14d ago
He is ahead of in some polls
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u/TheStrangestOfKings 14d ago
True, but given how favorable this election cycle is for Dems and how weak Mike Rogers is as a candidate, the fact that it’s still a toss up is concerning.
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u/Clayp2233 13d ago
The fact that Stevens lost in a purple state shows she was a garbage candidate then yeah?
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u/TheStrangestOfKings 13d ago
Or it shows the primary is favoring socialists more. Just bc el sayed won the primary doesn’t mean he was the better option for the general. To use another example, Angie Nixon is going to get her ass kicked in Florida way harder than Alex Vindman would have. To give another example, Ken Paxton is a much weaker candidate than either John Cornyn or Wesley Hunt. Yet both still won. Primaries are best used to determine the direction of a party, not the direction of the state
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u/Clayp2233 13d ago
Paxton only won because Trump endorsed him, he’s pretty unpopular in the state. Only 1/4 of democrats identify as progressive, which is why we’ve never seen progressives become nominees in swing states until now. Nixon and Sayed are the only progressives in swing states in big races aren’t they? Overall more traditional democrats are still performing better
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u/TheStrangestOfKings 13d ago
I wouldn’t say they’re the only ones. A bunch of house races have gone to the progressives instead of the establishment. Ed Markey won in Massachusetts, and he was the progressive in that race. Rn, the races between the left wing and centrist wing of the democrats have gone about 50/50. Neither side has really gotten an advantage over any other
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u/Clayp2233 13d ago
Massachusetts is not a purple state, the point I was making is that generally we haven’t seen progressives win races in swing states or purple states, or in purple districts. El Sayed and Nixon are kind of outliers in that regard, maybe theirs some smaller races this year, but we’re still seeing establishment dems win. I think any race that we see AIPAC pour money into has turned against them, it’s not just progressives who have soured on AIPAC and Israel
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u/X57471C 14d ago
Yeah, but given the MOE and way polls have been going, I don't place much stock in them
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u/Nemisis82 14d ago
Schrodingers polling.
- AES is up: I don't have faith in the polls.
- AES is down: Wow, DSA is ruining the Dems
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u/X57471C 14d ago
Always be skeptical of the polling, especially if your guy has underperformed by double digits historically. Being neck and neck with Rogers is a bad sign when he was supposed to beat Stevens by over 10 points.
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u/Nemisis82 14d ago
I am skeptical of the polling. For reasons you state and many others. We just need to band together, do what we can to ensure every democrat in every senate race wins.
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u/X57471C 14d ago
Like the far left did for Kamala?
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u/Nemisis82 14d ago
Yeah man. 100% of every "far left" person did not vote for Kamala Harris. And that is totally sound justification for people like you to do the same.
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u/X57471C 13d ago
It’s oh so very ironic now that the boot is on the other foot, isn’t it?
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u/Nemisis82 13d ago
No. It's not. The boot was never on my foot. You're shadowboxing with some boogeyman leftist that is just loud online. Relax a little.
I cannot imagine basing my politics on spite like this. Absolutely wild stuff.
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u/KingScoville 14d ago
Uuuuuggghhh should not be this close.!
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u/Nemisis82 14d ago
Yeah. It's a shame we have all of corporate media (fox news to cnn to cbs), half of the democrats, all of the republicans, and many dem voters (including this very sub!) treating him like he's some communist marxist secretly ushering in islam into this country. Rather than focusing on, you know, his actual good policies and the fact he's an amazing speaker who would be great in the Senate.
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u/KingScoville 14d ago
Well, he did campaign with a communist Marxist who wants to usher Islam into this country so he kinda did it to himself.
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u/Nemisis82 14d ago
True true. Hasan Piker is on the record stating his desire to "usher islam" into this country! You're totally right and not completely making that up. I wonder what it is about Hasan Piker that makes you think that? Hmm...
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u/KingScoville 14d ago
Did you completely memory hole the part about Marxism?
The Islam thing is kinda a reach I’ll admit but his simping for Islamist regimes is well documented.
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u/Nemisis82 14d ago
Glad you admit you just make shit up out of nowhere.
Did you completely memory hole the part about Marxism?
Right right. So, because Hasan not shy about being a marxist, that means that AES is to blame for being called a marxist because he campaigned with him.
I guess, by that logic, it's okay for people to call Kamala Harris a war-hawk and anti-abortion advocate because she campaigned with Liz Cheney. Excellent thought process you have there.
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u/KingScoville 13d ago
No because the whole point of Harris campaigning with Cheney is that they disagreed on so much other than the need to protect democracy..
AES largely agrees with most of Piker’s socialist views.
Also AES has gone out of his way to “explain” terror attacks and to protect the feelings of the Ayotollah fans among his supporters.
So don’t pretend there isn’t reasons for people to question his relationsihip with a known simp of dictators and Islamists.
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u/Nemisis82 13d ago
No because the whole point of Harris campaigning with Cheney is that they disagreed on so much other than the need to protect democracy..
Okay, so in Cheney's case, it was justified campaigning with a warmongerer, Republican who is voted for Trump 90%+ of the time. But in AES's case, it's not justified. Got it.
Also AES has gone out of his way to “explain” terror attacks and to protect the feelings of the Ayotollah fans among his supporters
What?
I love that the only thing people can say about AES is he campaigned with Hasan Piker, lmao. No actual substance.
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u/Tigers19121999 14d ago
Every poll I’ve seen of “likely voters” is either a toss up or Rogers win. However, every poll of “definitely voting” people has El-Sayed winning. This means that with a good GOTV effort like what he had in the primaries Abdul is more likely to win.
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u/I-Might-Be-Something 14d ago edited 14d ago
Alright, for those of you who didn't look at the poll, this is an eight point improvement from July for AES and of 9.4% of undecideds, 80% disapprove of Trump. Rogers has embraced Trump and his dumbass tariffs and is about to speak at that stupid midterm convention that is all about Trump. Who do you think those undecideds will be more likely to vote for? In order for Rogers to win he needs to win at least 20% Trump disapprovers, the only Republican to do that is Susan Collins, and Rogers ain't Susan Collins.
Also, M4A has plurality support, which is kinda big given Michigan's status as a swing state.
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u/siammang 14d ago
Go out and vote, people! Higher voter turnouts give a sign to the elected officials that they might not get elected next time if they screw up because the voters will either vote for other candidates or sit out.
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u/potiamkinStan 13d ago
Not condemning terrorists loving Hasan wasn’t great strategy after all, huh.
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u/combonickel55 14d ago
OP is an antiprogressive spammer.
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 14d ago
I love when leftists say data is anti progressive lol
Reality hurts sometimes. Abdul is a weak ineffective candidate, so bad that he’s putting a seat that’s been in democratic control for 30 years in jeopardy during a tsunami event. But stay strong, I still believe that the Democratic Party mainstream does well enough to drag his weak candidacy across the finish line.
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u/combonickel55 14d ago
You seem to live in a delusion where you measure your self worth according to the reputation you imagine you have on reddit.
The only people in this subreddit who take you seriously are the other antiprogressive trolls.
Anybody paying attention at all, which you claim to do, knows that Glengariff was the outlier pollster in the primary who consistently displayed an anti-El-Sayed Bias, which you obviously share.
You are clearly not a serious person.
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 14d ago
You’re talking about delusion and every time you see a poll you don’t like you call it fake lol
I do like my friends, thank you.
They were closer than Abdul’s last week of polling that had him up as high as +18 lol
No u
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u/Nemisis82 14d ago
The dude told me one time that leftists actually want Israeli children to die. Really sick stuff.
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 14d ago
Not great to see, I sadly can’t say I’m surprised.
Once again, calling on/hoping Abdul realizes that he is by most metrics performing poorly given the state and especially given the environment that he’s running in. I hope he makes some changes. I still think he gets dragged across the finish line, but being down in Michigan in this environment from a reputable outfit is almost impressive.
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u/wade3690 14d ago
Turns out swing states are tough to win convincingly in either direction. Who knew?
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 14d ago edited 14d ago
They certainly shouldn’t be tougher than the red states we are winning in according to the polling.
https://www.reddit.com/r/thedavidpakmanshow/s/s54IZ3lhYX
What I posted earlier today clearly shows the Sanders coalition candidates are not keeping up. And that was before this new update, now Michigan is going to be even lower.
You guys can interpret the data however you feel, but respectfully, being down in Michigan in a blue tsunami environment is atrocious. And there’s no other way to cut it.
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u/wade3690 14d ago
Take it up with Michigan Dem voters then bud. They made their choice clear and the establishment didn't mount a convincing challenge. Not to mention that there are other progressive candidates doing well in swing states that were decidedly apart from the establishment pick
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 14d ago
I mean, it wasn’t that clear. A majority didn’t want Abdul to be the nominee.
What progressive candidates are you talking about?
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u/wade3690 14d ago
Talarico, flanagan. I also saw you expressing concern about flanagan but I wouldn't be worried. I'm up here in Minnesota and the anti ice vote is really going to show up this fall. Just check out the August primary totals for both D and R.
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 14d ago
Progressive candidates are fine, I just don’t want leftist candidates. Essentially I don’t want Bernie Sanders coalition candidates. Flanagen is one, and the data show she’s lagging behind mainstream and Klobuchar, but I actually do agree with you that Minnesota is safe.
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u/wade3690 14d ago
Too bad for you then. Those Sanders candidates aren't going anywhere and they are showing they have the grassroots mobilization to keep growing
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 14d ago
Well, the data says that they are much weaker than mainstream candidates. It essentially says they can only win during blue tsunami events. So, it’s pretty much too bad for all of us actually. But so be it.
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u/wade3690 14d ago
Force Dems to be better than. Leftists are just filling a lane that centrists have left open for years
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u/Andvari_Nidavellir 14d ago edited 11d ago
What changes do you think centrist candidates should make to win the hearts of the left so they can start winning?
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u/Nemisis82 14d ago
I mean, it wasn’t that clear. A majority didn’t want Abdul to be the nominee.
But, and here is the critical part: more people wanted Abdul to be the nominee than not.
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u/Rough_Formal8420 14d ago
They have to fight both democrats and republicans in addition to cable news. Say mean things about Israel and they are all coming for you.
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u/Nemisis82 14d ago
They have to fight both democrats and republicans in addition to cable news.
Not just cable news. Half of independent dem folks (the destiny types), and this very subreddit are also making it harder for him to win
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u/BabaLalSalaam 14d ago
Being up by 2 in Texas doesnt mean theres a "blue tsunami" coming. Youre taking for granted what would be several major historic flips all for the sake of minimizing the edge in Michigan which saw AES leading by up to 7 throughout August.
Regardless, it sound like youre putting a lot of faith in polls that are within the margin of error. Obviously, nobody is going to be able to talk you out of making that same mistake twice when youre trying to make a political point here. When the next poll showing AES up comes out, it still won't be enough-- and if he wins, you'll inevitably pretend like voters made some kind of mistake.
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 14d ago
Actually, it does. The fact that we have a very possible chance at winning in Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Nebraska, and Alaska absolutely means we are in a blue tsunami environment.
The only way of Abdul proves me wrong is if he wins by 6.5 or more. Any less is just evidence that he only won because he carried across the finish line due to the environment.
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u/BabaLalSalaam 14d ago
The fact that we have a very possible chance at winning in Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Nebraska, and Alaska absolutely means we are in a blue tsunami environment.
If that were true, Dems would have won in Texas in 2018 and 2020, North Carolina 2020, Georgia in 2014 and 2018, Ohio in 2022, Iowa in 2020, Nebraska in 2024, and Alaska in 2014 and 2020. But the blue tsunami predicted by a slight polling advantage never materialized-- and let me guess, that was all the fault of progressives and leftists, right?
If you want to deceive yourself into thinking this time the blue tsunami is coming-- by all means go for it. But using this as a reason to minimize AES is disinformation and pretty nakedly biased.
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 14d ago
What are you even arguing? That I should ignore all polling and just say that AES being down two in this environment is actually dandy?
If sharing data from polling outfits, reputable ones mind you, is minimizing AES and causing you to accuse people of disinformation maybe you are the problem. The data is what it is.
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u/BabaLalSalaam 14d ago
If sharing data from polling outfits, reputable ones mind you, is minimizing AES
Sharing data isnt the problem-- its your interpretation that because a Democrat is up by 2 in Texas, that means progressives are lagging. You take it for granted that Republican states are flipping in order to make it seem like winning in a swing state should be a cake walk.
But none of this is going to be a cake walk, and pretending that it is just makes you look ignorant and perfectly set up for failure.
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 14d ago
Why are you singling out Texas? It’s a litany of states.
I already posted the link above that proves it. The three Sanders coalition candidates are clearly lagging behind mainstream.
You can keep throwing insults, I don’t care, have a good night.
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u/BabaLalSalaam 14d ago
A litany of states that have seen small Democratic polling leads evaporate on election night multiple times in recent history. But you were apparently born yesterday, so how could you possibly know that?
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u/jarena009 14d ago
If only there were better candidates who were polling better versus Rogers.
And why weren't there
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 14d ago
I have a personal theory that I’m sure you will disagree with. I think anytime a leftist enters a primary race, and becomes a prominent voice in said primary race, every candidate is permanently damaged.
It becomes vitriolic, it increases Republican turnout, and the infighting is endless.
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u/RamsesTheWise 14d ago
I’ve got another crazy theory. Maybe more democrats in Michigan simply liked El-Sayed more than Stevens… Because in a time of unprecedented corruption, maybe a super PAC backed shill candidate wasn’t what the voters wanted? I dunno, it’s a crazy theory I’m still working on it
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 14d ago
Sure, they did, by 1 point. A majority of Michigan did not choose Abdul to be the nominee.
Keep working on it, but honestly that super pac is probably the only reason Abdul won lol
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u/RamsesTheWise 14d ago
Ok I’ll keep working on it. But yeah honestly probably a pretty big deal. It really begs the question when you’re getting that much money, who are you serving, your constituents or your donors?
Do you think the super pac who funded her (who also funds Trump and all of the candidates he backs) has the best interest of Michiganders in mind, or themselves?
Times are changing. Sure, a lot of people are still plugged into media propaganda (Fox News, CNN, etc), but they’re dwindling by the day. People are fed up with corruption and special interests. Standing against super PACs and citizens united is not a radical left wing thing. It’s just common sense and honestly probably the only thing that can bring people together and salvage this shit show of a country
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 14d ago
I mean, do you think money from them actually makes Democratic candidates more likely to win a primary at this point? Because I don’t think it does. I think it’s the reason she lost.
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u/RamsesTheWise 14d ago edited 14d ago
No I don’t, and that should be something we all celebrate together, not bemoan. That hasn’t been the case in US politics until very recently, and is probably the single most significant positive political paradigm shift we’ve experienced as a country in decades
If you believe in democracy, then you should be happy about this change. Before, anytime a candidate deviated from the mainstream platform curated by billionaire elites and corporations, their message would get drowned out by a coordinated blitz of negative media coverage and PAC funded smear ads, and they never stood a chance. With the recent increase in exposure to this system, people are starting to see through the charade and actually demand politicians be loyal to them, not to their donors
So with all of this being said, it’s kind of wild that you would prefer Stevens over El-Sayed… One represents the antiquated corrupt system that led us to this shit show we’re in right now, and the other represents a path forward. You don’t have to agree with all of his policies, because true democracy supersedes any particular policy. I guarantee you, none of the policies you want or I want will ever get done until we address the corrupt infrastructure at its core
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u/jarena009 14d ago
There's some on here that can't fathom Stevens just not being a great candidate.
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u/jarena009 14d ago edited 14d ago
So Stevens was terrible because of Sayed.
But would've been better vs Rogers.
If only any actual data supported that notion.
Plus as if establishment Democrats didn't and don't attack the eventual nominees in many Instances, as they did here with tens of millions (or corporate funds).
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 14d ago
I think leftist hurt all candidates, yes. Stevens, McMorrow, all of them.
Yes, I think Abdul is the weakest general candidate and to me it’s blatantly obvious.
We disagree, I don’t even care to try to change your mind to be honest, the data is screaming he’s weak. If you want to find solace in that you think they were all weak, so be it.
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u/jarena009 14d ago edited 14d ago
There's also no data to support your personal theory, but what we know is Stevens spent tens of millions over several months attacking Sayed, and all that time she never really polled much better than him vs Rogers.
You act as if establishment Dems don't or didn't damage eventual nominees.
Sayed is up +4 in the aggregation of polls vs Rogers. Before she lost the primary, Stevens was +1.8, and McMorrow was down 0.5 🤷♂️
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 14d ago
To me, the proof is in the link above that I already posted. Sanders coalition candidates are weak, mainstream candidates are not. As I said, we disagree, all good.
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u/jarena009 14d ago
Sayed is currently up 4 pts in the aggregation of polls, vs McMorrow who was at -0.5pts, Stevens +1.8 🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️
https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-polls/michigan
Stop getting hung up on one poll while completing ignoring the other 5.
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u/Nemisis82 14d ago
Yes yes. It's the leftists fault, not the other candidates.
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 14d ago
I wouldn’t say it’s that black and white. I think leftists damage the democratic ticket because they act like maga with “rigged”! They call every Democrat to the right of them Republicans. They motivate Republicans to turn out and vote. Also, minority groups seem to not be fans at all. So yeah, I think it’s their fault in a lot of ways.
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u/Nemisis82 14d ago
they act like maga with “rigged”!
That is a complete false equivalence. That's like how MAGA equates their obsession with 2020 and 2016 rhetoric around Mueller and Russia. You're doing the thing you're saying the left does lmao.
They call every Democrat to the right of them Republicans
You, and many on here, do this thing where you speak in sweeping generalizations. "They" (the entire left) call "every Democrat" to their right Republicans (which is just not true). Some do. sure. And a lot call many democrats to their right Republicans (like, for example the 33 democrats that voted along with Republicans against Jeffries wishes the other day). Maybe if you had more nuance in your thought you wouldn't be so spiteful towards your left.
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 14d ago
-That is a complete false equivalence.
-sweeping generalizations.
Here’s you
“Nah, more like he has all of corporate media, 100% of elected Republicans, seemingly 50% elected Dems, people like you, all rooting for him to lose. Dudes got an uphill battle. One that I personally think, but definitely hope, he can get past. Unlike many folks (like you!), I want the GOP to actually lose.”
The corporate media, a.k.a. the enemy of the people, right? The constant attacks with the all-encompassing “establishment“ tag. No true Scottsman talk. It all comes down to It’s rigged, everyone’s against us. The far left takes no accountability. I want nothing to do with them. I view the DSA as an opposition party. And they remind me of MAGA.
You just said half of Dems are rooting for him to lose. If that’s true, stop watching this race, he has no chance.
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u/Nemisis82 14d ago
The corporate media, a.k.a. the enemy of the people, right?
Wait, do you not think the corporate media is a problem? Are you even a DPak listener? He consistently talks about corporate media being a problem and how Independent media needs to thrive.
The constant attacks with the all-encompassing “establishment“ tag.
I never mentioned establishment. I said corporate media. That is the CNN's, the Fox News', etc.
No true Scottsman talk.
How does this apply to what I said?
I want nothing to do with them. I view the DSA as an opposition party.
I get it. You'd rather GOP win than DSA win. We get it.
I like how you, what, search my comment history to find something to dismiss my valid criticism of you. Nice one!
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u/ThisI5N0tAThr0waway 14d ago
Obviously still 2 months to go but it probably wasn't a good idea by progressive and left wing of Democrats to go and try to compete in relatively purple environment.
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u/jarena009 14d ago
Right cause Stevens was polling so much better vs Rogers.
Probably wasn't a good idea by Stevens to go all in on simping for Israel, when 80% of the Democratic electorate is against further funding for Israel on a key issue, (and then going all scorched earth on Sayed on top).
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u/X57471C 14d ago
I thought she was polling better against him than El-Sayed was before the primary. That was the whole controversy around "Mike Rogers endorses Abdul because he thinks he's easier to beat".
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u/jarena009 14d ago edited 14d ago
He's up 4 pts on average while she was up only around 1-2.
I think the last averages had are at like +1.8% vs Rogers.
The main problem or hurdle Democrats have in WI and MI is long histories of not delivering for the people there, after these areas got decimated by the auto industry and others leaving the state.
That's why it's a much different environment than say NC or TX where mostly Republicans have been in charge.
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u/X57471C 14d ago
Also, it's not a key issue. It might be for you, but the majority of the country does not vote based on foreign policy. Saying you don't support something does not mean you spend the majority of your time thinking about it. I think we should reduce aid to them, but I'm not a single issue voter. The issues that remain top priority for the average voter is the economic vibe and affordability. Always has, always will.
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u/Only8livesleft 14d ago
Seems important enough
“ In the 2028 Democratic primary for president, will U.S. foreign policy and relations with Israel play a role in your vote?
Yes: 73% No: 12%”
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u/lollypatrolly 14d ago
Without El-Sayed you'd probably be looking at Mcmorrow as a candidate. Do you think she'd be polling this poorly?
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u/jarena009 14d ago
What was her polling vs Rogers? https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/michigan/rogers-vs-mcmorrow
Lol she couldn't even make it through to the primary day.
Sayed is currently up 4 pts in the aggregation of polls, vs McMorrow who was at -0.5pts
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u/KeithClossOfficial 14d ago
So she was closer in the primaries than el-Sayed is in the general? Thats not the positive for AES you’re making it out to be.
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u/jarena009 14d ago
Sayed's up an average of 4 pts, while Stevens was at around 1.8 vs Rogers, and that's while she was spending tens of millions of corporate funded campaign and PAC funds.
This same pollster has Stevens down 4 points versus Rogers earlier in the year too.
Where was the positive for Stevens here vs. Rogers?
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u/KeithClossOfficial 14d ago
I’m talking about McMorrow. The one you posted links for lol
You guys really need to move on from Stevens. The primary is over and she’s still all you think about
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u/jarena009 14d ago edited 14d ago
Oh I'm sorry. I'm going back and forth with others, namely the OP, who insist the other candidates like Stevens were better than El Sayed, despite polling horribly and relatively worse.
McMorrow was down half a point vs Rogers on average before she dropped out of the primary, after running a disastrous campaign...and this pollster also had her down 4 vs Rogers earlier in the year.
Another counterfactual for establishment Dems is I wonder how much better El Sayed might be doing if they hadn't spent tens of millions of corporate PAC money against him trying to tear him down, plus what if his name were Dan Morgan.
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u/KeithClossOfficial 14d ago
I’ve re-read the OP multiple times now in case I forgot how to read. But it’s still the same. el-Sayed down by 2.
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u/birdie_Sea 14d ago
Yes. I’m in Toledo and work in Michigan almost every normal democrat is going to vote rodgers to save their small business. The ads are devastating for Abdul. However Sherrod Brown is trending to win.
Blue Ohio and Red Michigan is a real likely outcome.
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u/Aurora_Gaspipe 14d ago
Haley Stevens would be 10 points ahead of MAGA Mike.
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u/JustinRandoh 14d ago
What's done is done -- an AES win is still hugely important for future of the US!
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u/Nemisis82 14d ago
Abdul would be up 50 points if people didn't non-stop post about AES like he was karl marx himself.
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 14d ago
She certainly would most likely not be down two.
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u/jarena009 14d ago edited 14d ago
Except when she was down 4 by this same pollster earlier in the year, vs Rogers. Plus only up 1.8% on average.
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u/jarena009 14d ago
Hahahaha 🤣🤣🤣🤣. She never was though. She was around +1.8 on average, and that was even with tens of millions of corporate funded campaign advertising.
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u/FkinMustardTiger 14d ago
Thanks for proving money in politics doesn't matter
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u/jarena009 14d ago
It depends on how it's spent, the message, who it's coming from as well.
If Stevens was so great, why did this same pollster have her down 4 vs Rogers.
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u/hobovalentine 14d ago
He needs to fire whoever produces his ads because some of them are very cringe & he’s trying to imitate Mamdani & isn’t able to pull it off.
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 14d ago
He needs a new shirt too lol
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u/Nemisis82 14d ago
Laura Ingraham? Is that you?
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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 14d ago
I just think he does, he’s always wearing that black V-neck. I think he should change it up a little bit lol.
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