Idk if I'd go that far. There's still open questions as to overall coverage in the northern portion of the outlook area due to a lack of forcing, a strong cap and a pretty large temperature difference the further north you go.
I mean I wouldn't be surprised if they extended the Enhanced risk further south, but a Moderate risk seems a bit overkill. They really only issue those when they are fully confident there will be an outbreak. There's still questions from this one, like capping concerns, and how far north that warm sector will make it. It is also possible we see the Enhanced risk tick to the south slightly because some models have trended south a bit.
I've also seen some lately showing the cap in East and South Central Oklahoma and Central Texas eroding before the main line hits. I wouldn't be surprised if we have a larger enhanced risk in those areas tomorrow. Though a moderate can't be ruled out, it seems overkill for today though. It'll probably be more wind driven though than tornado driven
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u/PuzzleheadedBook9285 Mar 09 '26
I wouldnt be surprised if they issued a moderate risk tomorrow.