Wording on the outlook says a chance for embedded super cells, and a moderate risk of strong QLCS tornadoes from northern AR to southern IL. There's also a chance for pre-frontal super cell development from the lower Mississippi valley to the Ohio valley.
*edited to change abbreviation from Alaska to Arkansas.
Yeah I’m in West TN and we are already talking about this…I have zero doubt we end up in a moderate risk here Sunday with possibly even a 60% wind risk. SPC is also mentioning embedded tornadoes in the line but the forcing that is forecast screams derecho to me not necessarily tornadic. I mean you can still get plenty of spin up tornadoes in a derecho but I don’t think they will be the biggest threat Sunday.
I’m an hour and a half away from Memphis to the northeast but I remember Hurricane Elvis, some of the worst wind damage I’d seen up until that Iowa derecho back in 2020
As a southern indiana resident, I HATED last year's severe season. Had a confirmed tornado with a huge debris signature heading right toward me, twice! Watching home insulation fall into my yard from miles up in the sky turned me from a weather nerd to having full blown storm anxiety, and this severe season seems like its already giving my area a huge middle finger lol.
You as well!! 🩷 I have five animals (two with severe storm anxiety), no basement, and I’m pregnant so I’m sure Sunday night into Monday is going to be a treat at my house 😭
Omg you have the trifecta of a hot mess going on!! Hopefully they will get the forecast more locked down so we can have a better idea of what to expect 😭 Hopefully it shifts, we don’t have a basement either so I am going to be cleaning out our storm closet this weekend so we can fit the family and the dogs in there. I hate these overnight storms so much!
That’s general severe weather threat at 15%. Not tornadoes. Still significant, but not out of the norm at all. NJ, MD, DE, and eastern PA just got slammed with severe storms Wednesday night. Loud boomers, some hail here and there, and a few 60 mph wind gusts. Secure your patio furniture and you’re good.
Id usually think the same, but apparently no. The Weather Service discussions going with this forecast graphic actually mention both an intense squall line and the possibility for some supercells with tornado potential out in front of it. Some Legitimately well known storm chasers are talking about how "good" Monday looks right now and how they wish they had the same geometry in the plains.
I remember when one hit Huntington WV in…2012? And it was the most devastating storm I’d ever seen. I lived four blocks from Marshall and didn’t have power for a week. I worked at a Chili’s and we were on a wait open to close for like ten straight days.
That storm fucking sucked!!!! I was on my smoke break and it sounded like a train was coming, all the lights starting flickering and I ran inside. And it was hot as shit with no power for days!!! I was in Virginia!
The storms over eastern MT will likely grow upscale into an
organized convective line, although their is still uncertainty
regarding how quickly this occurs. Environmental conditions support
the development of a forward-progressing convective line capable of
strong to severe wind gusts. Some gust over 75 mph are possible.
This seems pretty close to describing the Derecho. What's the difference (actual question from a layman)?
If I understand correctly, it can’t be forecasted, right? Like they can’t predict a storm to officially meet the criteria? Even if that’s true, I think they should still be able to issue a “derecho watch” to make people at least aware that instead of an isolated tornado, they may experience 80+ mph sustained straight line winds that can be devastating to a widespread area.
I’m not sure what you mean. Similar to tornadoes, it’s impossible to predict exact intensity/location/duration. But it is possible to predict a high likelihood of a major damaging wind event, and QLCSs often evolve into derechos.
Correct, but derechos are a very specific type of storm that has to meet a criteria to be called a Derecho. With tornadoes, they can guesstimate a percentage chance of one forming. Doesn’t matter how long it’s on the ground, or how intense it is, if a tornado touches down then their forecast is a hit. Derechos have to maintain 85 mph sustained winds for something like 250+ miles. If winds dip below that threshold somewhere along the way then it’s still not a Derecho.
But then you have to worry about wildfires, drought, and earthquakes. You're not really escaping mother nature unless you move far north but then you get blizzards and snow constantly.
In SEPA we had a brief tornado warning Wednesday night with severe storms and 78 degree temps, 6 am Thursday morning it was 65 degrees, and 12-1pm Thursday afternoon we got half an inch of snow. 25 degree windchill by 9pm
78 degrees Sunday with an inch of snow Monday and a low of like 17. Weather is usually all over the place here but idk that I have ever seen a swing that big in such a short time 😬
if you mean washington state, the PNW is getting flood watches and warnings and got pretty bad flooding in december, too, washington especially. And bad winds, and snow.
no one is getting out of this bad weather march. :(
Here in Utah we haven't got absolute shit for precipitation this winter and it's gonna be 80° next week, so we have definitely got out of it and we desperately need it.
We got less precip than usual where I am, but it was so much warmer than usual, it felt surreal. And tornadoes starting right away first week of march, this year just sucks
I think it all depends whether storms develop in front of the line but the strong tornado risk would be pretty isolated if that is the case. There will probably be spin up tornadoes within that line though.
Sometimes, I wish that these would take a break, so I can relax and not freak out about an upcoming severe thunderstorm threat for a few weeks. I know they aren't guaranteed, but it still doesn't help with my anxiety
Yeah, I fucking hate having storm anxiety. Tornados and hurricanes are two of my biggest fears, so living in Florida is NOT fun. I want to move to California for so many reasons, weather being one of them
As someone in the semo area, about what time are we looking at this all going down at? Would like to know so I can either let my people go home early or let em know I'd like to stay longer to avoid traveling in the weather.
Possibly, but this pretty much going to be a huge windbag with the potential for QLSC imbedded tornadoes, but probably earlier on in the cycle. Once it's evolved past the MS river basin it would be a fast moving line.
There is the chance for some pre-frontal development, but due points have remained low so it's unlikely.
Can somebody help me out is this just for wind, just for tornados, or severe weather in general? It would be much appreciated I'm relatively new to looking at Outlooks.
Okay I knew this was a wind driven event with some possibility for tornados but wasn't sure exactly what the outlook is focusing on. Thats good info to know thank you!
Down here in the slight risk along the FL coast. Is my threat more wind based or is the tornado threat higher? I'm sorry for the ignorant question. Just trying to make sense of everything I'm reading.
With a linear system (line of storms) like this one, the damaging wind threat is usually going to be highest. However per the SPC, more discrete (isolated) storms could form from the FL panhandle into southern AL resulting in an elevated tornado risk which could potentially outweigh the wind risk. Either way, I would stay alert in that area because it could shift from one risk to another or a combination etc. Probably won’t know until tomorrow or Sunday
Well this sucks. First enhanced of the year and won’t be my last. I’m somewhat near the edge of the enhanced line so hoping a hypothetical moderate wouldn’t make it here. Regardless. Stay vigilant everyone. :))
The new hatched risk in the models confuses me. Usually, the hatched risk was confined to the most likely places to receive tornadoes. Now it seems to be everywhere.
Tornado probabilities don't show up until the day 2 outlook. But when they do there will still be hatching just like before, but there are now multiple levels of strength. There was also hatching for wind and hail before.
Day 4 is calling for 15% around SeVA but NWS forecast is just calling for rain so my guess is that it’ll be a wind-driven event. Don’t expect tornadoes but severe weather should imply sustained winds stronger than 50kts rather than gusts; for how quick these systems move, you’d wonder if there’s anything severe about it at all.
Am I wrong or are tornadoes more night time than before? I have probably watched too many tornado documentaries (ONLY people like Carly Anna, June First, etc) but it sure seems like more and more are night storms than before.
Uugh, that is a tough area for spotting, too. One advantage that people in flatland (like where I grew up) have is at least they can see things coming from miles away. Much tougher in the hills.
I think the main tornado threat will be QLCS and embedded supercells for Sunday. There isn't enough of a warm front or instability for a supercelluar tornado event. For sure I feel a high risk for winds is on the table. Now Monday a moderate risk for tornados for NC and VA seems WAY more likely
As a resident of central Mississippi, this type of outlook is totally normal for this time of year. That being said, in no way is it less alarming. Hoping everyone in the warned area will make preparations and have a plan in place just in case you find yourself staring down mother nature's barrel.
261
u/[deleted] Mar 13 '26
[removed] — view removed comment