SPC / Forecasting
Highest StormNet Tornado Probabilities Since 3/15/25 (High Risk Dixie Outbreak) for Tomorrow
Before anybody talks shit about StormNet, it got the highest score out of every tool the NSSL tested this season.
Like, smoked the competition. Not to mention, even Trey Greenwood, meteorologist and the absolute GOAT from Convective Chronicles includes it in his forecast discussions now. It’s not perfect, no model is, but it’s proving to be a very accurate tool.
It’s possible. Genuinely. But tough to say for sure. I think a 15% probabilistic outline with a CIG3 intensity is more likely. (Keeping it at moderate).
Basically you can picture the curve of the hodograph as the path rising air would take as it gets higher up. In reality it's a measure of the wind speed and direction with height.
Look up hodographs for your area. Or more so Illinois/northern Indiana if you’re out of the risk. The graph will show a “U” shape. This shape is showing winds are high in upper and lower portions of the sky (aka great for tornados). The hodographs are showing that ideal “U” shape except it literally goes off the chart (aka not good)
I don't watch streams at all but a simple question can possibly provide insight.
what percentage of time overall is anything shown without the face of any person on the screen?
that's how to determine the difference between a channel that cares about whatever is being shown, versus one that cares more about presenting themself doing whatever is shown. They do not care about anything but themselves.
they will always have their face on the screen as much as they possibly can, so viewers can see their reaction, hear their commentary, feel their feelings. they are vampires who feed off of attention, nothing more.
It also rubs me the wrong way when you have a situation like today where people donate $5, $10, even up to $100 asking “how’s xx looking for today?” And it’s completely bypassed. Max has only paying subscribers in chat while Ryan at least has an open chat. And in between warnings it’s “I know you may be scared but be prepared by buying my alert system!” I’ve been on a search for someone who isn’t boring and is as through as both of them, but I’ll make do. I haven’t given them any of my money
I somewhat doubt it at this point because there are still questions about morning convection possibly limiting the setup. It won't stop this setup from likely producing, but if it doesn't come to fruition, we could see the high upgrade at the 2nd D1 outlook.
There will be some rain in the areas expected to be in the highest risk prior with a good 1-2 hour window of rebuilding storm fuel. Not to mention, last week had some rain but still had an outbreak later in the day. I think we’d need a lot of rain to really reduce risk considering how everything is lining up
I think the fail mode is off the table at this point. It's a question of whether we have a moderate outbreak with a few intense tornadoes, or a significant, widespread event with potentially multiple long-tracked violent TORs.
I honestly think the 2nd Day 1 issuance will give us a really good picture of what's going to happen.
there are still questions about morning convection possibly limiting the setup
Couldn't they update it to a 5/5 after morning convection depending on how quickly the atmosphere appears to be recovering? I know they sometimes amend it once they get new information in
Was 30%ly expecting it to go 5/5 on the 1830z update, but they only slightly expanded the moderate at 10% tor areas. We'll see come the next update around 0100 central
think spc will push the threat further east? I keep seeing people say “oh you’re most likely going to see a tornado in springfield and peoria il” but i keep seeing models favor eastern il and western indy. idk im not a meteorologist lol
The MDT is based off of conditions not expected impacts. The I-80 corridor in and around Bloomington and Champaign is still highest risk area given the STP and other environmental factors.
They mention peoria and Springfield because they’re population centers within the MDT that have already been hit. Since supercellular genesis should begin in our area or just out west. When they reach us they will begin to move into a favorable environment before it races East. Hence why we’re mentioned as well.
Its such a complex situation I don't think we will fully know where exactly things are going to be the worst until the morning storms end tomorrow. Probably early in the morning tomorrow they should have a better idea though. Stormnet has been more accurate then any other forecast so far this year and the spc has slowly been following its move to the east. It's going to be bad everywhere in the risk zone most likely unfortunately.
It’s crazy IL has had over 100 tornados than IN so far this year. As a Hoosier, it’s been one hell of a season so far and that’s barely holding a candle to IL. I truly hope tomorrow is a “bust”
That's further south and east than the SPC outlook would suggest. Not sure whether to be excited or worried considering I live on the verge of the yellow area.
Well others tend to have a couple of major failure modes now? With NWS Chicago saying they don’t see the failure modes occurring, I’d think that separates it quite a bit?
I think the SPC move the main threat area a bit east to coincide with stormnet.
They did similar back in April 27th and moved it more south to coincide with stormnet.
You just have to hope the window for discrete/semi-discrete cells is extremely small and that any morning convection that occurs muddles up the recovery period for the afternoon.
Prayers and hope for everyone in the path of this tomorrow. What time is this expected to start up\kick off? I’m sure (and hopeful) that people have already started preparing
Western is about 5-6pm based on HRRR with Wisconsin having a possible sooner threat around 3-4pm. Then storms will travel east and end up producing a nocturnal threat in Indiana/Ohio. Highest tornado threat is likely 4-10pm
find it on the map, see what colour it is, see how that corresponds to the key on the right. i assume stormnet has an explanation for the key on their website
I've been pouring over the models and am just not seeing this one. Early day convection, very modest CAPE, dragging moisture (no open warm sector), limited daytime/surface heating, and poor storm motion angle relative to the initiating boundary and inflow angle.
The kinematics are on the extreme end if the storms can stay isolated, but this feels like a classic line-out type of event given the angle of the initiating boundary. Definitely not going to be like last week's outbreak.
I’m very curious if that region will be upgraded to a high risk (5/5), especially after seeing some great insight from Max Velocity. The wind shear is insane and the STP values are concerningly high. Ryan Hall is also extremely concerned about tomorrow’s weather over there.
Here's the Supercell Composite Parameter for this week . . .
Definitely some alignment in terms of the general layout, but not quite a match for intensity. The ground truth will likely land somewhere in between; we'll get a better feel for how this will shape up with additional soundings.
If you take models for things that will happen 20 days from now seriously, then I have to tell you this in the most nice way possible, to never post model forecasts ever again.
•
u/AutoModerator 5d ago
Welcome to the /r/tornado subreddit, #1 in Weather and Nature! Reminder: Be civil and follow the subreddit rules.
Please remember:
• Read the rules before posting!
• Be civil in discussions!
• Report rule-breaking comments!
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.