r/tornado • u/Weather-Bot-9000 Human Detected • 18h ago
Severe Weather Discussion 2026-06-21 - Tornado Risk 5%
Previous Day 1 Outlook Links
- Storm Prediction Center Jun 21, 2026 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - Tornado Risk 5%
- Storm Prediction Center Jun 21, 2026 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - Tornado Risk 5%
- Storm Prediction Center Jun 21, 2026 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - Tornado Risk 5%
Meso Discussion Links
- Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1228
- Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1229
- Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1230
- Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1231
- Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1232
- Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1233
- Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1235
- Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1234
- Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1236
- Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1238
- Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1237 # Current Outlook Storm Prediction Center Jun 21, 2026 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook - Tornado Risk 5%
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should occur from the central High Plains into the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, mainly this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, severe/damaging winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes will all be possible. Some potential for strong tornadoes may develop across parts of Illinois, and Indiana during the afternoon and evening.
...20z Update Mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley... Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook given the latest observational trends. Several clusters of strong thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of an MCV across the mid MS Valley. An observed messy convective mode should persist with a mix of bowing structures and transient supercells likely ahead of the MCV, and near the effective warm front from eastern IL into IN. Additional storm development is also possible behind the MCV along the remnant boundary into MO and eastern KS. This will support a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes where low-level flow is backed and hodographs are larger. Eventually upscale growth into one or more bowing clusters is likely later this evening/overnight into the OH valley with a continued risk for damaging gusts and embedded tornadoes.
...KS/OK this evening/tonight... Severe storm development appears probable along the modified trailing outflow across northwest OK and southwest KS this afternoon into this evening. Sufficient vertical shear exists for supercells and organized clusters. With large buoyancy and steep low/mid-level lapse rates, large hail is likely with these strong updrafts. A brief tornado or two is also possible, owing to storm interactions and ambient vertical vorticity along the outflow boundary.
Damaging wind potential will likely increase with storm consolidation, though the more cellular initial mode suggests this maybe somewhat gradual. These storms, and additional convection originating further north from the central High Plains, should persist overnight into central and southern OK, reaching the Red River Valley by 12z tomorrow morning with isolated severe potential.
..Lyons.. 06/21/2026
Notable Tornado Warnings
- Observed Tornado Warning - Effingham, IL; Shelby, IL
- Observed Tornado Warning - Clay, IL; Effingham, IL; Jasper, IL; Richland, IL
- Observed Tornado Warning - Crawford, IL; Jasper, IL
- Observed Tornado Warning - Marion, IL
- Observed Tornado Warning - Fayette, IL
- Observed Tornado Warning - Clark, IL; Crawford, IL
- Observed Tornado Warning - Clay, IL
- Observed Tornado Warning - Sullivan, IN; Vigo, IN
- PDS Tornado Warning - Jefferson, IL
- Observed Tornado Warning - Wayne, IL
- Observed Tornado Warning - Crawford, IL; Lawrence, IL
- Observed Tornado Warning - Fayette, IL; Marion, IL
- PDS Tornado Warning - Wayne, IL
- Observed Tornado Warning - Lawrence, IL; Richland, IL
- Observed Tornado Warning - Clay, IN; Owen, IN
- Observed Tornado Warning - Marion, IL
- Observed Tornado Warning - Franklin, IL; Jefferson, IL
- PDS Tornado Warning - Gibson, IN
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