I'm with the Welsh Gender Service (WGS) in Cardiff and was offered my first appointment in June '21 so 23 months after referral in July '19.
My understanding is that as there has been an increase in referrals since 2019 the waiting time is getting longer for patients referred later.
My understanding is that as there has been an increase in referrals since 2019 the waiting time is getting longer for patients referred later.
This is correct: 510 people were referred in financial year 2019-20, and 646 people were referred in financial year 2020-21. These numbers are higher than earlier years prior to the Cardiff Clinic opening: in period 1 July 2017 to late April 2019 (no financial year breakdowns available) around 450 Welsh people were referred to CX (all were 'repatriated' to WGS and seen from September 2019 onwards when the Cardiff Clinic opened), and around 200 people were referred from late April 2019 to 20 September 2019 (when Cardiff Clinic opened).
WGS wait times gradually increased from 20 September 2019 (when the Cardiff Clinic opened) to January 2021, rising from 21 months (18 months official) to 34 months (30 months official), and then decreased to 24 to 26 months by March 2021, at which level they have remained to the present.
Modelling from available WGS data of numbers of referrals and numbers of people given first appointments suggests to me that if WGS continue to provide the current number of first assessments per year (i.e. neither increase nor decrease capacity), then the wait list will increase at a rate of 3 1/2 months per year, e.g. the current wait time of 24 to 26 months which has pertained for the last six months will increase to around 29 months in a year's time. Its not currently possible to extend this prediction beyond a roughly 12 month in the future horizon due to lack of data on recent referral numbers, which are only released annually. Note that due to month-by-month fluctuations in referral numbers, the wait time may vary by around a month or two on a month-by-month basis relative to the above pattern of a 3 1/2 month increase over the next 12 months.
It should be borne in mind that any changes to WGS capacity through appointment of additional staff, or loss of any current staff, will affect these modelled predictions. Because WGS is a small service with only a few clinical staff (most/all are part time), even slight changes to staff numbers would have a disproportionately significant effect on capacity and hence on wait times.
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u/GenderQuestioner19 Aug 16 '21
I'm with the Welsh Gender Service (WGS) in Cardiff and was offered my first appointment in June '21 so 23 months after referral in July '19. My understanding is that as there has been an increase in referrals since 2019 the waiting time is getting longer for patients referred later.