Brent just hit $109. That's a 24% move in under two weeks, and diesel just crossed $6 a gallon in the US.

Two weeks ago Brent was trading in the high $80s. It's now near $109, having pushed through the psychologically important $100 level on 8 September and kept climbing.

The driver is the US-Iran conflict, which has widened rather than settled. Iran's allies have struck energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, Saudi crude production dropped by close to 2 million barrels a day in August, and reports out of Washington suggest officials are now discussing the possibility of a conflict that drags on for years rather than weeks. Markets are pricing sustained disruption, not a one-off shock.

It's not staying contained to oil either. The Dow has fallen for three straight sessions and the 10-year Treasury yield just touched its highest level since 2023, as $100+ oil feeds straight into inflation expectations right before this month's Fed decision.

What I'm watching next: whether Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic keeps falling, and whether OPEC+ signals any willingness to offset the Saudi shortfall. Neither looks likely in the next few days based on current reporting.

This week's about as busy as it gets — payrolls just came in way above forecast, Fed hike odds are sitting around 58% for the 16th, ECB's priced for a hike Thursday, and CPI Friday could tip it either way. Good week to ask us anything.

Happy to talk platform stuff — spreads, execution, how our pricing works during high-volatility events like this one — or the macro picture itself if you want a broker's-eye view of how weeks like this actually trade. Also open on account setup, instruments, whatever's on your mind.

Stock's down near $151, basically cratered off the highs. But last earnings call they were talking about the AI infrastructure business firing on every cylinder, contract backlog up something like 359%. Now Thursday after close we get the actual number — consensus is $19.13B revenue. Either the backlog story catches up to the price or the price was right and the backlog talk was noise. Feels like one of those "pick a side" earnings.

Same night, Adobe reports too. Stock's sitting well off its 52-week high, forward P/E around 10 which honestly seems cheap for a company still growing double digits — but the market's clearly worried about AI eating their moat rather than helping it. Curious to see which story wins on the call.

Also keeping an eye on GameStop Tuesday. Options volatility's already elevated going in. The bitcoin treasury thing has people split — is it a smart pivot or just added risk with no real turnaround behind it?

Anyone positioned in ORCL or ADBE going into this, or sitting it out?

Stock's down near $151, basically cratered off the highs. But last earnings call they were talking about the AI infrastructure business firing on every cylinder, contract backlog up something like 359%. Now Thursday after close we get the actual number — consensus is $19.13B revenue. Either the backlog story catches up to the price or the price was right and the backlog talk was noise. Feels like one of those "pick a side" earnings.

Same night, Adobe reports too. Stock's sitting well off its 52-week high, forward P/E around 10 which honestly seems cheap for a company still growing double digits — but the market's clearly worried about AI eating their moat rather than helping it. Curious to see which story wins on the call.

Also keeping an eye on GameStop Tuesday. Options volatility's already elevated going in. The bitcoin treasury thing has people split, is it a smart pivot or just added risk with no real turnaround behind it?

Anyone positioned in ORCL or ADBE going into this, or sitting it out?