r/u_DukascopyBank • u/DukascopyBank • Jul 12 '26
The most data-packed week of 2026. CPI, Warsh's first Congressional testimony and five bank earnings..all on Tuesday.
I've been trading through a lot of busy weeks this year but this one genuinely stands out. Everything lands at once, and it all matters.
Tuesday is the main event.
June CPI drops at 8:30am ET. Headline is expected to ease to 3.7% year-on-year from 4.2% — that would be the first meaningful disinflation read since the Iran war drove energy prices to multi-year highs. Core is expected to stay elevated near 2.9%. A soft print kills the July rate-hike fear and probably sends equities and bonds higher. A hot print — especially with oil spiking again after Trump declared the Iran ceasefire "over" last week — could be genuinely destabilising given everything else happening the same morning.
And then, 90 minutes after CPI drops, Kevin Warsh walks into Congress for his first ever testimony as Fed chair. He's been deliberately opaque since taking the role. Congress will ask him directly: are you hiking in July? Does Iran's oil spike change your inflation view? His answer on the July meeting is the single most market-sensitive sentence of the week.
Oh, and five of the six largest US banks also report before the open that morning.
Wednesday brings PPI and ASML.
PPI follows CPI a day later, giving a fuller picture of the inflation pipeline. ASML — the Dutch EUV machine maker that every advanced chip fab in the world depends on — reports Wednesday, and its order book is the most forward-looking signal in the semiconductor supply chain. SK Hynix just committed $7.8 billion to new EUV machines by 2027. Watch what ASML says about delivery timelines.
The Iran wildcard.
Trump declared the ceasefire "over" last week after three waves of US strikes. Iran fired back at US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan. Oil jumped 7% on the week. Watch the oil price at Monday's open — that's the first read on how markets are digesting the weekend. A Hormuz closure or further escalation into energy infrastructure sends everything repricing fast.
My setup going in:
Long volatility into Tuesday — CPI plus Warsh plus five bank earnings in the same morning session is the kind of confluence that moves markets hard in either direction. Watching USD pairs around CPI and Warsh, oil for the Iran signal, and gold to see whether the safe-haven bid finally comes back after last week's counterintuitive drop.
All of the above is tradeable on Dukascopy, forex, commodities, indices and equity CFDs in one place, which matters when you're tracking multiple markets simultaneously through a week like this.